道路安全背景下统计生命的价值：一种新的价值转移方法（英）

The value of a statistical life in the context of road safety: a new valuetransfer approachWim Wijnena, Said Dahdahband Nino PkhikidzebaW2economics,utrecht,netherlands;bWorld Bank Group, Washington, District ofcolumbiaABSTRACTObjective:The value of a statistical life (VSL) is a key input for cost-benefit analysis (CBA) in thecontext of road safety and for calculations of the socio-economic costs of road crashes. However,many countries, especially low- and middle-income countries (LMIC), lack country-specific VSLestimates. To address this, value transfer is often used, where VSL estimates from other countries areadapted to local situations to estimate the VSL in the countries with no VSL estimates. This paperpresents new guidance for VSL value transfer in the context of road safety.Method:A unit value transfer approach is applied, which implies that a base VSL is determined andused to estimate the VSL in other countries. We collected VSL estimates from 32 countries worldwideto determine base VSLs for both high-income countries (HIC) and LMIC. According to the literature,the VSL is strongly correlated with income per capita. Therefore, income elasticities from theliterature are applied to account for the impact of per capita income on the VSL.Results:The resulting VSL transfer functions are VSL = 0.404*(Y/5,726)1.2 for LMIC and VSL =3.206*(Y/42,087)0.8for HIC, where VSL is the VSL in million USD and Y is the Gross National Incomeper capita (USD, 2020 prices). The VSL ranges from approximately 22,000 USD to 1.1 million USD inLMIC and from 1.2 million USD to 4.8 million USD in HIC.Conclusions:We recommend applying this VSL transfer approach for cost-benefit analysis and roadcrash costing in countries lacking appropriate country-specific VSL. Moreover, this study highlightsthat, despite the growing interest in LMIC in research on VSL, the number of studies in thesecountries is still limited, emphasizing the need for more VSL studies. Finally, developing transferfunctions for non-fatal injuries is recommended, which is an essential input for CBA as well.IntroductionMonetary valuation of road safety impacts provides a sys-tematic quantitative approach to assessing the benefits asso-ciated with various road safety measures. It is useful for twomain reasons, first, to emphasize the large socio-economicburden of road crashes, and second, to serve as input fordecision-makingon road safety investments throughcost-benefitanalysis(CBA)(Wijnen and Stipdonk 2016).Road crash cost studies are conducted on a regular basis inmainlyhigh-income countries.These studies assess theimpacts of road crashes on society from an economic per-spective,usually expressed in monetary terms,typicallyincorporating a monetary valuation of the intangible impactsrelated to the loss of quality of life and life years (“humancosts”). This serves to provide the rationale for increasedinvestments in road safety measures. The socio-economicburden of road crashes is often stressed in road safety (pol-icy) documents of international organizations (World Bank2014; EC2019), as well as in national policy documents ofsome countries (Wijnen2024).Monetary valuation of the impact on road safety is essen-tial for CBA. CBA provides an overview of the costs of roadsafety measures, the safety benefits, and possibly other soci-etal impacts, quantified in monetary terms as much as pos-sible.It plays an important role in effectively allocatingavailableresources and prioritizing different road safetymeasures (Bliss and Breen2009). Various national and inter-nationalorganizations advocate using CBA for assessingroad safety investments and prioritizing interventions (e.g.,World Bank2017; EC2018). A large variety of road safetymeasures has been assessed in CBA-studies (Polinder etal.2012; Daniels et al.2019). CBA has played a role in decision© 2025 World Bank. Published with license by Taylor &francis Group, LLcCONTACTWim Wijnenwim.wijnen@w2economics.comW2economics,utrecht,netherlands.associate editor Mattcraig oversaw the review of this article.This article has been republished with minor changes which do not affect the academic content.Supplemental data for this article can be accessed online athttps://doi.org/10.1080/15389588.2025.2476607.This is anopenaccess article distributed under the terms of thecreativecommonsattributioniGoLicense (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/), permitting unrestricted use,distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. This article shall not be used or reproduced in association with the promotion of commercialproducts, services or any entity. There should be no suggestion that the World Bank endorses any specific organization, products or services. This notice should be preserved along withthe article’s originalurL. Disclaimer: The findings, interpretations, options and conclusions expressed in this article are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views ofthe Wor