重新审视我们对中期和峰值生产时每股收益上行空间的分析

FIGURE 2. Aero Relative Consensus N12M P/E vs S&P 500Dec-17Jul-18Feb-19Sep-19Apr-20Nov-20Jun-21Jan-22Aug-22Mar-23Oct-23May-24Dec-24-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%Jan-15Aug-15Mar-16Source: BloombergRestricted - External Sep-19Apr-20Nov-20Jun-21Jan-22Aug-22Mar-23Oct-23May-24U.S. Aerospace & DefenceNEUTRALU.S. Aerospace & DefenseDavid Strauss+1 212 526 5580david.strauss@barclays.comBCI, USJoshua Korn+1 212 526 3283joshua.korn@barclays.comBCI, USSrividya Vinjamuri+1 212 526 7536srividya.vinjamuri@barclays.comBCI, USBenjamin Tomick+1 212 526 8926benjamin.tomick@barclays.comBCI, US Oct-16May-17 Dec-24 Dec-17Jul-18 We estimate that Airbus and Boeing in combination will deliver ~1,400aircraftin 2025 withsupplier production levels roughly in line. We estimate that this equates to ~5% of the globalinstalled base ofaircraft.Historically, deliveries have equated to 7% of the installed base onaverage, in a range of 10% at peak and 3% at trough. This makes sense as the airlines require~5% new supply to accommodate annualtrafficgrowth along with ~2% for replacement.FIGURE 5. Deliveries % of FleetAverage0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%1990199219941996199820002002200420062008201020122014201620182020202220242026ESource: CiriumThis implies that the suppliers have ~35% OE upside to get back to midcycle and can roughlydouble to peak.MidcycleFor the suppliers with significant leverage to higher OE production, we have estimatedincremental EPS upside from a return to midcycle OE production (35% growth) along with 35%+incremental margins, below recent 40%+. 2 Source: Company reports and Barclays ResearchOur estimates do not assume any benefit from incremental capital deployment.We estimate midcycle OE levels will generate 60%+ incremental EPS upside for HXL/ATI, 45% forHWM, and 20% for WWD.FIGURE 7. Incremental EPS Potential on Return to Midcycle Aero OE Production$0.00$0.20$0.40$0.60$0.80$1.00$1.20$1.40$1.60$1.80$2.00HXLATIIncremental EPSSource: Barclays Research. Reflects scenario analysis illustrative of midcycle.Along with the growth in aero OE, we also assume that the non-aero OE (aero AM, industrial,etc.) portion of each company’s business grows in aggregate at a MSD annual rate over the nextseveral years.In total, we estimate this yields revenue, segment EBIT margin, and EPS for each company asfollows.FIGURE 8. Revenue, Segment EBIT Margin, and EPS Estimates Assuming Midcycle OE ProductionRevenueATI$5,925HWM$10,395HXL$2,460WWD$4,320Source: Barclays Research. Revenue $M. Analysis is illustrative of midcycle. Our 2025 EPS estimates remain unchanged. HWMWWDIncremental EPS % of 2025Segment EBIT Margin2025 Upside EPS18.3%30.4%19.5%21.7% 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%$5.40$5.63$3.79$10.283 As compared to our forecast last year, these estimates are higher for ATI/HWM/WWD while lowerfor HXL, comingoffa lower base in 2025.FIGURE 9. Current vs Prior EPS Estimates Assuming Midcycle OE ProductionSource: Barclays Research. Reflects current vs prior scenario analysis. Our 2025 EPS estimates remain unchanged.These midcycle EPS estimates are above current consensus expectations for 2027.FIGURE 10. EPS Estimate Assuming Midcycle OE Production vs 2027 Consensus EPS$10.28$0$1$2$3$4$5$6$7$8$9$10ATIHWMHXLWWDMidcycleConsensusSource: Bloomberg and Barclays Research. Reflects scenario analysis illustrative of midcycle.On midcycle EPS, we estimate HWM trades at 31x, WWD 21x, and ATI 15x, and HXL 14x.FIGURE 11. PE on N12M Consensus EPS vs Midcycle EPS0x5x10x15x20x25x30x35x40x45x50xHWMWWDATIHXLN12MMidcycleSource: Bloomberg and Barclays Research. Reflects scenario analysis illustrative of midcycle.PeakAssuming a doubling for aero OE to peak, we estimate 210% incremental EPS upside potentialfor HXL, 155% for ATI, 120% for HWM, and 55% for WWD.4 Source: Barclays Research. Reflects scenario analysis illustrative of peak.Including HSD annual growth for the non-aero OE portion, we estimate revenue, segment EBITmargin, and EPS at peak for each as follows.FIGURE 13. Revenue, Segment EBIT Margin, and EPS Estimates Assuming Peak OE ProductionRevenueSegment EBIT MarginATI$7,535HWM$13,815HXL$3,320WWD$5,340Source: Barclays Research. Revenue $M. Analysis is illustrative of peak. Our 2025 EPS estimates remain unchanged.As compared to last year, these estimates are also higher for ATI/HWM/WWD while flat for HXL.FIGURE 14. Current vs Prior EPS Estimates Assuming Peak OE ProductionCurrent EstimateATI$8.79HWM$8.83HXL$6.73WWD$15.04Source: Barclays Research. Reflects current vs prior scenario analysis. Our 2025 EPS estimates remain unchanged.On peak EPS, we estimate HWM trades at 20x, WWD 14x, and ATI 9x, and HXL 8x. 2025 Upside EPS22.6%$8.7934.5%$8.8323.3%$6.7324.2%$15.04Prior Estimate$7.78$5.75$6.76$13.20 FIGURE 15. PE on N12M Consensus EPS vs Peak EPSSource: Barclays Research. Reflects scenario analysis illustrative of peak. Analyst(s) Certification(s):I, David Strauss, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views