金宝汤公司：加入俱乐部

Restricted - External CPBUNDERWEIGHTUnchangedU.S. FoodNEUTRALUnchangedPrice TargetUSD 35.00lowered -13% from USD 40.00Price (30-May-25)USD 34.04Potential Upside/Downside+2.8%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchMarket Cap (USD mn)10150Shares Outstanding (mn)298.18Free Float (%)65.8952 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn)2.9Dividend Yield (%)4.58Return on Equity TTM (%)13.43Current BVPS (USD)13.12Source: BloombergPrice PerformanceExchange-NYSE52 Week rangeUSD 52.80-32.95Source: IDCLink to Barclays Live for interactive chartingU.S. FoodAndrew Lazar+1 212 526 4668andrew.lazar@barclays.comBCI, USJoshua Bader, CPA, CFA+1 212 526 3084joshua.bader@barclays.comBCI, USJohnny Shamir+1 212 526 0908tzur.shamir@barclays.comBCI, US adversely impacting the snacking category as it has a more discretionary bent to it. So too didCPB acknowledge the category has become a bit more competitive, though still does not seeevidence of irrational pricing behavior. As a result, in-market consumption for CPB went fromdeclining -1% YOY in F2Q25 to down -3% YOY in F3Q25. Two thirds of this decline is attributableto the category performance and one third to the company’s in-market performance. Given theweaker snacking recovery, CPB now sees margins in this segment closer to 13% for FY25 vs its13.5% forecast previously (and down from 15%+ before that).Somewhat overshadowed by the Snacks weakness, CPB’s Meals & Beverage segmentreturned to organic sales growth, though Rao’s is now projected to grow in the +HSD YOYrange for FY25 vs slightly above +10% YOY previously.Even excluding the benefit in F3Q25from shipment timing (+4% YOY benefit), consumption still rose +2% YOY as consumers areincreasingly cooking more at home to stretch their food budgets. In fact, in F3Q25, CPB saw thehighest level of meals prepared at home since early 2020. While encouraging to be sure, salesfor Rao’s, a key growth driver, rose only +2% YOY in F3Q25, a significant sequential deceleration.Fiscal YTD Rao’s is up +10% YOY, though the company now sees this brand growing +HSD YOY forthe full year vs above +10% YOY previously. Perhaps this should come as little surprise given thestrong distribution gains since taking ownership of the brand about one year ago, but still we'dnote management's commentary that Rao's is now "reaching a point of maturity on coredistribution" such that the company will now look to deploy other levers to continue the growthtrajectory. We think there is plenty of roomleftfor this brand but admittedly with much of thedistribution gains behind it, growth now likely becomes more challenging.CPB: Quarterly and Annual EPS (USD)202420252026Change y/yFY JulActualOldNewConsOldNewCons20252026Q10.91A0.89A0.89A0.89AN/AN/A0.90E-2%N/AQ20.80A0.74A0.74A0.74AN/AN/A0.78E-8%N/AQ30.75A0.63E0.73A0.65EN/AN/A0.70E-3%N/AQ40.63A0.69E0.55E0.69EN/AN/A0.65E-13%N/AYear3.08A2.95E2.90E2.98E3.05E2.75E3.04E-6%-5%P/E11.011.712.4Consensus numbers are from Bloomberg received on 02-Jun-2025; 12:50 GMTSource: Barclays Research2 Upside/Downside scenarios What To Do With The StockDespite the overdelivery in F3Q25, CPB pointed investors to the low end of its previous guidanceranges for both EBIT and EPS due to the slower than anticipated recovery in the Snacksbusiness as well as the reversal of shipment timing benefit realized in F3Q25. While we werealready at the low end of the EPS range, we have further reduced our FY25 estimate to reflectthe net headwind of highertariffrelated costs, which the company estimates could be up to anincremental -$0.03 to -$0.05 and have not been factored into the guidance range. As such, wenow look for FY25 EPS of $2.90 vs. $2.95 previously. Notably, the company did not make similardirectional commentary on the top line as it did for profit. Still, at this stage, we think it prudentto take a more conservative approach to estimates and we continue to look for organic sales forFY25 to be down -1.5% YOY, towards the lower end of the -2% to flat YOY full year outlook.For F4Q25, we are forecasting for organic sales to be down more than -3% YOY, driven by a -2%YOY decline in Meals & Beverages and a -4.5% YOY decline in Snacks. In Meals & Beverages, weexpect the shipment timing benefit to reverse and be a -3pt YOY headwind to segment salesgrowth in the quarter. So too are we looking for some modest sequential deceleration from the+2% YOY in-market consumption that the business delivered last quarter as F3Q25 benefittedfrom a strong soup season (particularly broth), though, on the flip side, SOVO is now fully in thebase and the company mentioned that consumption for the Rao's brand grew +11% YOY in thelast four weeks vs +2% YOY in F3Q25. In Snacks, we do not look for much of any sequentialimprovement, though we'd think the company is looking for some momentum to build as weenter the key summer season. Given the relatively easier year ago comparison, we areestimating a modest benefit from price in the segment for the quarter. On the profit side, withthe company anticipa