亚洲内存：中国市场——比其他地区更受关注

EquitiesSemiconductors &Equipment China marketing–moreconcerns than other regions Korea ◆Greaterdoubt oversustainability of demand boost fromsubsidies and further AI proliferation Ricky Seo*Head of Korea Research, Semiconductor and DisplayThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking CorporationLimited, Seoul Securities Branchrickyjuilseo@kr.hsbc.com+82 2 3706 8777 ◆We highlight soaringmemoryprices, CSP capex growth andongoing supply constraints boosting the memory market Hankil Chang*Associate, Korea Technology ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking CorporationLimited, Seoul Securities Branchhan.kil.chang@kr.hsbc.com+822 3706 8750 ◆Prefer Hynix (000660 KS, Buy) on HBM tech leadership;BuySamsung (005930 KS) on memory price rebound More concerns:During our marketing in Chinaon26-30May, we found ChineseinvestorswerescepticalaboutaPC and smartphone recovery and AI proliferation,given limits onproductivity enhancement.Doubtsover thesustainability of demand growthfromgovernment-led subsidies prevailed, and most investors mentionedthe difficultyoffindingmeaningful use-cases from AI services.Investors considered this a short-lived reboundfrom pull-in orders ahead of full-scale tariff implementation. They also expressed concernsabout a potential inventory adjustmentin3-4Q25.Questions werefocusedon progress inhigh bandwidth memory (HBM)andoutlookandmemoryprices. 3D packaging forinference AIalong with new tech for higher bandwidth in smartphonewereunique interest. * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Solid outlook continues:We highlight1)robust HBM demand frommemorycontentgrowth in newNVIDIA(NVDA US, USD135.13, Hold)GPU and ASIC;2)strongpriceoutlookforconventional DRAMthanks torisingChineseserver demand,amid fallinginventory at memory makers and scaling down at major DRAM makersdrivingongoingshortages;and3)NAND price rebound from production cutsandlooming eSSD demandatAI serversfrom 3Q25e.We thinkthis shortageismostlyfrom conservative capex by majormemory makersin2H24due to oversupply concernsfrom aggressive capacity expansionatChinese memory makers,while pull-in demand and governmentsubsidiesdroveanearlierprice rebound(seeMarch 10 Asia memory report). Therefore, we expect less impacton memory pricesfrom inventory adjustmentsin 4Q25egiven limited bit output increasesatmajor DRAM makers,relatively slower tech migration,the new iPhone’spotentialDRAMcontent upgrade to 12GB and slower ramp-up ofChinesecompetitorsamid faster DDR4phase-out at major DRAM makers. Hynix to maintain HBM leadership:As previously highlighted (seeSK Hynix, Buy–leaderin HBM, 11 Feb), Hynix is likely to maintain its leadership in HBM3e 12high andHBM4 until next year. Customers seem tofavour Hynix’s collaboration with foundry leaderTSMC (2330 TT, TWD967.00, Buy) in base die manufacturing and chip-on-wafer on-silicon(CoWoS) packaging (3D), which we expect to create strong synergies. Hynix will use 5nmtech for commodity HBM logic dies and 3nm for its customised HBM dies, while ASICcustomers prefer to work with a HBM leader. We prefer Hynix (000660 KS,TP KRW340k,Buy) given:1)strongHBM production andongoing leadership; 2)higherHBM sales contribution of 56% in 2026evs31% in 2024 andhigher margins; and 3) dominance in server DRAM and eSSD. Our Buy rating onSamsung(005930 KS, TP KRW88k, Buy)considers its trough valuation and potentialbenefit on its GDDR7DRAMfrommore use of lower performance GPUin China aftertheUS restriction. HSBC Global Research Podcasts Listen to our insights Find out more Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited, Seoul SecuritiesBranch Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and withthe Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Source:Bloomberg consensusestimates and historical data Source:Bloomberg consensus estimates and historical data Source:Company data, Note: Capex sum of Samsung electronics and SK Hynix Source:Company data, HSBC estimates, Note: See–Asia Technology, 13 June2024 Source: Company data, HSBC estimates, Note: See–Asia Tech Hardware,12Feb 2025 Exhibit20.Computing comparisonbetween NVIDIA GPU and Chinese ASIC Source:Company data, HSBC Exhibit22.While low inventory atsmartphone OEM supports strong mobileDRAM prices as well Source:DRAMeXchange, HSBC estimates Source:DRAMeXchange, HSBC estimates Source:DRAMeXchange, HSBC estimates Source:DRAMeXchange, HSBC estimates Source: Bloomberg,HSBC estimates Source: Bloomberg,HSBC estimates Valuation and risks Disclosure appendix Analyst Certification The following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarilyresponsible for this report, including any analyst(s)whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveri