2020年代的欧洲天然气：极端、矛盾和持续不确定性的十年

2residual volatility, policy ambivalence, and theemerging global LNG oversupply regime—aclash with geopolitical energy securityimperatives, domestic backlashes against capital-intensive green technologies andmarket inertia. We argue that Europe’s energy system nowoperates in a zone ofstructural ambiguity—where security, sovereignty, economy and climateambition remaindeeply entangled, but as yet far from operationally aligned.https://doi.org/10.36687/inetwp233JEL Codes:D40; D47; F15; F21; F50; F51; G13; H12; L60; L95; O25; O38; O52; Q34; Q35;Q41; Q47; Q48; Q54Keywords:Natural gas trade; LNG; European energy scenarios; European energysecurity;RePowerEU TABLE OFCONTENTSExecutive Summary.............................................................................................9Getting back on track: three courses of action to achieve RePower’s targets...............11Gas prices: resilience will require maintaining decarbonisation through a likely trough ofsofter (but still uncertain) mid-term gas prices over the next few years.......................12The electricity nexus.................................................................................................13Meeting the EU’s gas demand will necessitate strategic risk-taking............................13Policy implications...................................................................................................14Introduction......................................................................................................151.Review of the EU’s core decarbonisation and gas policies............................161.1Evolution of the EU’s climate agenda..............................................................161.2Energy sector and gas in Fit-for-55 and REPowerEU.........................................181.2.1Renewable energy and energy efficiency targets.............................................................181.2.2Policies for the use of gases..........................................................................................181.2.3REPowerEU policy package...........................................................................................191.3Clean Industrial Deal.....................................................................................201.4Fossil-fuel subsidies and energy taxation.......................................................211.5Key takeaways...............................................................................................222The EU’s response to the global energy crisis and the effect on natural gas...232.1The EU’s policy response to natural gas supply crisis......................................232.1.1Natural gas demand reduction target.............................................................................232.1.2Coordinated procurement of natural gas........................................................................242.2Structure of EU gas consumption and immediate response to the energy crisis252.2.1Natural gas role in the EU prior to the energy crisis..........................................................252.2.2Immediate response to the energy crisis: changes from 2021-2022.................................272.2.3Gas response 2023 to today..........................................................................................302.3Key takeaways...............................................................................................313Structural and regional aspects of EU natural gas demand...........................323.1Households...................................................................................................323.1.1Progress on REPowerEU Targets....................................................................................343.1.2Transition to gas in the heating sector............................................................................353.1.3Heat pumps..................................................................................................................363.2Industry.........................................................................................................383.2.1Decarbonisation progress and targets in industry...........................................................383.2.2Gas-intensive industries................................................................................................403.3Power Sector.................................................................................................403.3.1Short term responses across Member States.................................................................403.3.2Investment pipeline in gas power generation..................................................................43 3 43.3.3Emerging challenges in the power sector: EVs, flexibility, and market structure...............443.3.4Gas infrastructure.........................................................................................................463.4Low-Carbon Gases............................