新西兰：2025年第四条磋商新闻稿；员工报告；新西兰执行主任的发言（英）

IMF Executive Board Concludes2025Article IV ConsultationwithNew ZealandFOR IMMEDIATE RELEASEWashington, DC–May 26,2025:The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund(IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation1withNew Zealand on May 19, 2025.Tight monetary policy has helped bring inflation back to target, but at the expense of growth.Real GDP contracted by 0.5 percent y/y in 2024, as investment fell by 4.1 percent y/y,household consumption stagnated. The slowdown has been particularly pronounced ininterest-rate-sensitive sectors including retail trade, construction, and manufacturing. Thefinancial sector remains resilient despite rising non-performing loans. A recovery in externaldemand and improved terms of trade have helped narrow the current account deficit to 6.2percent of GDP, though it remains above long-term trends. Despite a challenging economicbackdrop, the government delivered modest fiscal consolidation in FY2023/24, with theprimary deficit narrowing to 2.4 percent of GDP. Tight monetary policy helped bring inflationwithin the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)’s 1–3 percent target band in 2024Q3, after13 consecutive quarters, with headline inflation reaching 2.5 percent y/y in 2025Q1. TheRBNZ has thus eased the Official Cash Rate (OCR) several times since August 2024, bringingit closer to the neutral rate.The return of inflation to target is enabling monetary policy easing and a return to growth.Inflation is forecast to remain within the target band, allowing monetary policy to graduallymove to a neutral stance. Real GDP is projected to expand by 1.4 percent y/y in 2025, withmonetary policy easing providing a boost to consumption and investment. Growth is expectedto accelerate to 2.7 percent y/y in 2026, as the lagged impact of lower interest rates is fullyrealized. Fiscal policy is expected to continueto balance needed medium-term consolidationwith growth considerations. The government’s broad-based structural reform agenda is aimedat boosting medium-term productivity growth, including via reforms to attract foreigninvestment, enhance competition, reduce regulatory burdens, accelerate housing supplygrowth, and progress toward closing of the infrastructure gap.Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside. Downside risks stem from a softer-than-expected recovery due to elevated global uncertainty and a weak labor market or theoccurrence of a natural disaster. Upside risks include a stronger rebound in growthdue tofaster-than-expected monetary policy transmission. As a small open economy, New Zealandis vulnerable to trade disruptions, geoeconomic fragmentation, or a global economicslowdown.1Under Article IV of the IMF's Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members,usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, anddiscusses with officials the country's economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters,the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board. Executive Board Assessment2Executive Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal. They welcomed that theeconomy is showing signs of a nascent recovery and that inflation has returned to the ReserveBank of New Zealand’s target, after a prolonged period of significant price pressures. Notingthe country’s exposure to trade and investment shocks, Directors underscored the importanceof maintaining prudent policies to safeguard macroeconomic stability and implementingambitious structural reforms to address medium-and long-term economic challenges.Directors commended the role of monetary policy in helping bring inflation back to target. Theyagreed that the current monetary policy easing is appropriate and should continue untilreaching a neutral level, while remaining data-dependent and responsiveto economicconditions. Directors welcomed the expanded macroprudential toolbox and concurred thatmacroprudential tools should continue to be used to address financial risks that may emergeas policy rates are reduced.Directors agreed that fiscal policy should focus on growth-friendly, medium-term consolidation,while supporting the most vulnerable. They called for comprehensive revenue reforms thatenhance efficiency andincentivize long-term investment. Directors also encouraged theauthorities to pursue expenditure reforms, including to the pension system, that are groundedin a cost-benefit analysis.Directors agreed that financial stability risks are contained and recommended that householdand financial balance sheets continue to be monitored closely. They welcomed progress inkey reforms, notably the Depositor Compensation Scheme and the Deposit Takers Act.Directors noted the authorities’ efforts to increase banking competition and emphasized thatprudential settings should remain adequately calibrated to guard against financial stabilityrisks. Given housing shortages, they called for improving affordabilityand expanding