人工智能趋势

Trends–Artificial Intelligence (AI)May 30, 2025Mary Meeker / Jay Simons / Daegwon Chae / Alexander Krey ContextWe set out to compile foundational trends related to AI. A starting collection of several disparate datapoints turned into thisbeast.Vint Cerf, one of the ‘Founders of the Internet,’ said in 1999, ‘…they say a year in the Internet business is like a dog year–equivalent to seven years in a regular person's life.’ At the time, the pace of change catalyzed by the internet was unprecedented.Consider now that AI user and usage trending is ramping materially faster…and the machines can outpace us.The pace and scope of change related to the artificial intelligence technology evolution is indeed unprecedented,as supported by the data. This document is filled with user, usage and revenue charts that go up-and-to-the-right…Creators / bettors / consumers are taking advantage of global internet rails that are accessible to 5.5B citizens viabreakthrough large language models (LLMs) that–in effect–found freedom with the November 2022 launch ofIn addition, relatively new AI company founders have been especially aggressive about innovation / product releases / investments /acquisitions / cash burn and capital raises. At the same time, more traditional tech companies (often with founder involvement)haveincreasingly directed more of their hefty free cash flows toward AI in efforts to drive growth and fend off attackers.The outline for our document is on the next page, followed by eleven charts that help illustrate observations that follow.We hope this compilation adds to the discussion of the breadth of change at play–technical / financial / social / physical / geopolitical.Special thanks to Grant Watson and KeeyanSanjasazand BOND colleagues who helped steer ideas and bring this report to life.And, to the many friends and technology builders who helped, directly or via your work, and are driving technology forward. As soon as we updated one chart, we often had to update another–a data game of whack-a-mole…a pattern that shows no sign of stopping…and will grow more complex as competitionamong tech incumbents, emerging attackers and sovereigns accelerates.often supported by spending charts that also go up-and-to-the right.connected devices; ever-growing digital datasets that have been in the making for over three decades;OpenAI’s ChatGPT with its extremely easy-to-use / speedy user interface.And global competition–especially related to China and USA tech developments–is acute.No doubt, people (and machines) will improve on the points as we all aim to adapt to this evolving journeyas knowledge–and its distribution–get leveled up rapidly in new ways. 2 •Seem Like Change Happening Faster Than Ever?Yes, It Is•AI User + Usage +CapExGrowth=Unprecedented•AI Model Compute Costs High / Rising + Inference Costs Per Token Falling=Performance Converging + Developer Usage Rising•AI Usage + Cost + Loss Growth=Unprecedented•AI Monetization Threats=Rising Competition + Open-Source Momentum + China’s Rise•AI & Physical World Ramps=Fast + Data-Driven•Global Internet User Ramps Powered by AI from Get-Go=Growth We Have Not Seen Likes of Before•AI & Work Evolution=Real + Rapid12345678Outline 3129-152153-247248-298299-307308-322323-336 Charts Paint Thousands of Words…Seem Like Change Happening Faster Than Ever?Yes, It IsAIUser+ Usage +CapExGrowth=UnprecedentedDevelopers in Leading Chipmaker’s Ecosystem12.1Source: Leading ChipmakerDetails onPage 38Internet vs. Leading USA-Based LLM:Total Current Users Outside North AmericaNote: LLM data is for monthly active mobile app users. App not available in select countries, includingChina and Russia, as of 5/25.Source: United Nations / International Telecommunications Union (3/25), Sensor Tower (5/25)0Years InShare of Total Current Users, %Details onPage 566MM20052025Number of Developers, MM0%50%100%InternetLLM33Years In90%@ Year 390%@ Year 23 …Charts Paint Thousands of Words…AI Monetization Threats =Rising Competition +Open-Source Momentum +China’s Rise5Leading USA LLMs vs. China LLMDesktop User ShareNote: Data is non-deduped. Share is relative, measured across six leading global LLMs.Source:YipitData(5/25)Desktop User Share, %2/242/254/2575%60%10%21%15%0%Details onPage 293USA–LLM #1ChinaUSA–LLM #2AI Model Compute Costs High / Rising +Inference Costs Per Token Falling=Performance Converging + Developer Usage Rising3Cost of Key Technologies Relative to Launch Year% of Original Price By Year(Indexed to Year 0)Note: Per-token inference costs shown.Source: Richard Hirsh; John McCallum; OpenAIDetails onPage 1380 Years72 YearsElectric PowerComputer MemoryAI Inference5.1China vs. USA vs. Rest of World Industrial Robots InstalledNote: Data as of 2023.Source: International Federation of RoboticsIndustrial Robots Installed4Leading USA-Based AI LLM Revenue vs. Compute ExpenseNote: Figures are estimates.Source: The Information, public estimatesRevenue (Blue) &2014 …Charts Paint Thousands of WordsAI & Ph