玻利维亚：2025年第四条磋商新闻稿；员工报告；玻利维亚执行主任的发言

BOLIVIA IMFCountryReportNo.25/116 June2025 2025ARTICLEIVCONSULTATION—PRESSRELEASE;STAFFREPORT;ANDSTATEMENTBYTHEEXECUTIVEDIRECTORFORBOLIVIA UnderArticleIVoftheIMF’sArticlesofAgreement,theIMFholdsbilateraldiscussionswithmembers,usuallyeveryyear.Inthecontextofthe2025ArticleIVconsultationwithBolivia,thefollowingdocumentshavebeenreleasedandareincludedinthispackage: APressReleasesummarizingtheviewsoftheExecutiveBoardasexpressedduringitsMay2,2025,considerationofthestaffreportthatconcludedtheArticleIVconsultationwithBolivia. TheStaffReportpreparedbyastaffteamoftheIMFfortheExecutiveBoard’sconsiderationonMay2,2025,followingdiscussionsthatendedonFebruary5,2025,withtheofficialsofBoliviaoneconomicdevelopmentsandpolicies.Basedoninformationavailableatthetimeofthesediscussions,thestaffreportwascompletedonApril16,2025. AnInformationalAnnexpreparedbytheIMFstaff. AStatementbytheExecutiveDirectorforBolivia. Thedocumentslistedbelowhavebeenorwillbeseparatelyreleased. -SelectedIssues TheIMF’stransparencypolicyallowsforthedeletionofmarket-sensitiveinformationandprematuredisclosureoftheauthorities’policyintentionsinpublishedstaffreportsandotherdocuments. Copiesofthisreportareavailabletothepublicfrom InternationalMonetaryFundPublicationServicesPOBox92780Washington,D.C.20090Telephone:(202)623-7430Fax:(202)623-7201 E-mail:publications@imf.orgWeb:http://www.imf.orgPrice:$18.00perprintedcopy InternationalMonetaryFundWashington,D.C. ©2025InternationalMonetaryFund PR25/168 IMFExecutiveBoardConcludes2025ArticleIVConsultationwithBolivia FORIMMEDIATERELEASE Washington,DC–May30,2025:TheExecutiveBoardoftheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)completedtheArticleIVconsultation1forBoliviaonMay2.TheauthoritieshaveconsentedtothepublicationoftheStaffReportpreparedforthisconsultation.2 Bolivia'srealGDPgrowthhasmoderatedto2.1percentinthefirstthreequartersof2024,drivenbyadeclineinhydrocarbonsproduction,aslowdowninservicesactivity,andadropinsoycropsandrelatedmanufacturingdueto‘ElNiño’effects.Theeconomyhasalsofaceddisruptionsfromroadblockagesandscarcityofforeignexchange(FX)―givencriticallylowinternationalreserves―fuelsandothercriticalinputs.Highimportcosts,weakagriculturalproduction,androadblockagespushedinflationto10percentatend-2024,thehighestlevelinoveradecade.Unemploymenthasfallen,butunderemploymentisrising,andrealincomesretrenchedonaverage.ThecombinationofFXshortages,slowingactivity,anddepreciationoftheparallelexchangerateresultedinacompressionofthecurrentaccountdeficitto2.7percentfor2024.Thefiscaldeficitsurpassed10percentofGDPin2023-24withdeclininghydrocarbonrevenues,taxexemptions,increasedsocialspending,andhigherinterestpayments.Thedeficithasbeenmostlyfinancedbythecentralbankamidtightexternalfinancingconstraints.Publicdebthasincreasedto95percentofGDP. Thefinancialsectorremainswellbuffered.However,depositsdeclinedinrealtermsandnetinterestmarginsarepressuredbyinterestratecontrols,limitingbanks'abilitytoraiseloanratesamidrisinginflationandslowingcreditgrowth.BankshaveexperiencedimprovedprofitabilityfromFXtradinggains,resultinginastrengthenedcapitaladequacyratioof13.5percentin2024,whilenon-performingloanshaveremainedlowat3.2percentoftotalloans. 1UnderArticleIVoftheIMF'sArticlesofAgreement,theIMFholdsbilateraldiscussionswithmembers,usuallyeveryyear.Astaffteamvisitsthecountry,collectseconomicandfinancialinformation,anddiscusseswithofficialsthecountry'seconomicdevelopmentsandpolicies.Onreturntoheadquarters,thestaffpreparesareport,whichformsthebasisfordiscussionbytheExecutiveBoard. 2UndertheIMF'sArticlesofAgreement,publicationofdocumentsthatpertaintomembercountriesisvoluntaryandrequiresthememberconsent.Thestaffreportwillbeshortlypublishedonthewww.imf.org/Boliviapage. 2 ExecutiveBoardAssessment3 ExecutiveDirectorsagreedwiththethrustofthestaffappraisal.TheyexpressedconcernoverBolivia’sacutefiscalandexternalimbalancesandunsustainablepolicymixandcalledforurgentactionstoaddresstheovervaluedexchangerate,bolsterforeignreserves,andimplementsustainedfiscalconsolidation.DirectorscautionedthatinactioncouldleadtoapainfuldisorderlyadjustmentandunderscoredtheFund’sreadinesstosupporttheauthoritiesthroughitsvariousactivities.Theyencouragedthestafftocontinuetocloselyengagetheauthoritiesontheneededadjustments.Carefulcommunicationofthepolicyreformstostakeholderswouldbepivotaltoenhancetheiracceptability. DirectorsstressedthattheuntenablepegtotheU.S.dollaranddepletedinternationalreservescallforadecisiveshiftinthemonetarypolicyframework.Theycalledforarealignmentoftheexchangeratewithmarketfundamentals,movingtowardgreaterexchangerateflexibility,andforfrontloadedfiscalconsolidationandrestrictivemonetarypolicysettings,whichwouldaddressinflationarypressures,alleviateFXshortages,andalloweliminationofFXrestrictions.Increasinginterestrateflexibilitywillfacilitateeffectivemonetarypolicytransmission. Directorsrecommendedacredibleandsustainedfiscalconsolidationbyrationalizingthepublicwagebill,phasingoutfuelsubsidies,enhancingpublicinvestmentmanagementandspendingefficiency,andmobiliz