聚烯烃月报：下游淡季来临 供应持续增量

策略摘要核心观点■市场分析盘价差持稳。■策略 研究院化工组研究员梁宗泰020-83901031liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616陈莉020-83901135cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421联系人杨露露0755-82790795yanglulu@htfc.com从业资格号：F03128371吴硕琮020-83901158wushuocong@htfc.com从业资格号：F03119179刘启展020-83901049liuqizhan@htfc.com从业资格号：F03140168投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 资讯来源：隆众资讯请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明PDH成本支撑有所松动。聚烯烃下游需求维持季节性淡季，工厂刚需采购为主，PE下游农膜开工率继续下滑，包装膜需求难有提振。PP下游塑编等开工亦呈现下降趋势，同时海运费上涨使得出口订单承压。下游需求端预计仍将偏弱运行，逐步进入消费淡季。■风险宏观经济政策，原油价格波动，新增产能投产进度。 目录聚烯烃基差结构................................................................................................................................................................................6聚烯烃投产计划表............................................................................................................................................................................7聚烯烃检修计划................................................................................................................................................................................9聚烯烃月度产量..............................................................................................................................................................................12聚烯烃生产利润及开工率...............................................................................................................................................................14聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比...........................................................................................................................................................15聚烯烃外盘价差及进出口利润.......................................................................................................................................................17聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润...........................................................................................................................................................20聚烯烃下游库存及订单情况...........................................................................................................................................................21聚烯烃现实库存..............................................................................................................................................................................24图表表1:国内聚烯烃投产计划|单位：万吨/年.....................................................................................................................................7表2:海外聚烯烃投产计划|单位：万吨/年.....................................................................................................................................8图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................6图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨...........................................................................................................................6图3:中国PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...........................................................................................................................9图4:中国油制PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...................................................................................................................9图5:中国煤制PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...................................................................................................................9图6:中国烷烃制PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...............................................................................................................9图7:中国PP检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...........................................................................................................................9图8:中国油制PP检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...................................................................................................................9图9:中国煤制PP月度检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月.........................................................................................................10图10:中国PDH制PP月度检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月.................................................................................................10图11:聚烯烃周度开工预估|单位：%..........................................................................................................................................10图12:PE开工率分工艺|单位：%.................................................................................................................................................11图13:PE开工率分品种|单位：%.................................................................................................................................................11图14:PP开工率分工艺|单位：%..................................................................................................................................................12图15:PE月度产量|单位：万吨.....................................................................................................................................................12图16:LLDPE月度产量|单位：万吨.............................................................................................................................................12图17:HDPE月度产量|单位：万吨.....