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PublicDisclosureAuthorized MPO 04/2025 PublicDisclosureAuthorized PublicDisclosureAuthorized MACROPOVERTYOUTLOOK PublicDisclosureAuthorized Country-by-countryAnalysisandProjectionsfortheDevelopingWorld ©2025InternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/TheWorldBank1818HStreetNW,WashingtonDC20433 Telephone:202-473-1000 Internet:www.worldbank.org ThisworkisaproductofthestaffofTheWorldBankwithexternalcontributions.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclu-sionsexpressedinthisworkdonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsofTheWorldBank,itsBoardofExecutiveDirectors,orthegovernmentstheyrepresent. TheWorldBankdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyofthedataincludedinthiswork.Theboundaries,colors,denominations,andotherinformationshownonanymapinthisworkdonotimplyanyjudgmentonthepartofTheWorldBankconcerningthelegalstatusofanyterritoryortheendorsementoracceptanceofsuchboundaries. RightsandPermissions Thematerialinthisworkissubjecttocopyright.BecauseTheWorldBankencouragesdisseminationofitsknowledge,thisworkmaybereproduced,inwholeorinpart,fornoncommercialpurposesaslongasfullattributiontothisworkisgiven. Allqueriesonrightsandlicenses,includingsubsidiaryrights,shouldbeaddressedtoWorldBankPublications, TheWorldBank,1818HStreetNW,Washington,DC20433,USA;fax:202-522-2625;e-mail:pubrights@worldbank.org. MPO MACROPOVERTYOUTLOOK MACROPOVERTY 5 OUTLOOKSpringMeetings2025 6Cambodia/8CentralPacificIslands/10China/ 12Fiji/14Indonesia/16LaoPDR/18Malaysia/ 20Mongolia/22Myanmar/24NorthPacificIslands/ EastAsiaand thePacific 26PapuaNewGuinea/28Philippines/30Solomon Islands/32SouthPacificIslands/34Thailand/ 36Timor-Leste/38VietNam 41 42Albania/44Armenia/46Azerbaijan/48Belarus/50BosniaandHerzegovina/52Bulgaria/54Croatia/56Georgia/58Kazakhstan/60Kosovo/62Kyrgyz Europeand CentralAsia Republic/64Moldova/66Montenegro/68NorthMacedonia/70Poland/72Romania/74RussianFederation/76Serbia/78Tajikistan/80Türkiye/82Ukraine/84Uzbekistan 87 88Argentina/90Bahamas,The/92Barbados/ 94Belize/96Bolivia/98Brazil/100Chile/ 102Colombia/104CostaRica/106Dominica/ LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean 108DominicanRepublic/110Ecuador/ 112ElSalvador/114Grenada/116Guatemala/ 118Guyana/120Haiti/122Honduras/124Jamaica/ 126Mexico/128Nicaragua/130Panama/ 132Paraguay/134Peru/136SaintLucia/ 138SaintVincentandtheGrenadines/140Suriname/ 142TrinidadandTobago/144Uruguay 2MacroPovertyOutlook/April2025 147 148Algeria/150Bahrain/152Djibouti/154Egypt,ArabRepublic/156Iran,IslamicRepublic/158Iraq/160Jordan/162Kuwait/164Lebanon/166Libya/ MiddleEastand NorthAfrica 168Morocco/170Oman/172Palestinianterritories/174Qatar/176SaudiArabia/178SyrianArabRepublic/180Tunisia/182UnitedArabEmirates/184Yemen,Republic 187 188Afghanistan/190Bangladesh/192Bhutan/ 194India/196Maldives/198Nepal/200Pakistan/ SouthAsia 202SriLanka 205 206Angola/208Benin/210Botswana/212BurkinaFaso/214Burundi/216CaboVerde/218Cameroon/220CentralAfricanRepublic/222Chad/ Sub-Saharan Africa 224Comoros/226Congo,DemocraticRepublic/ 228Congo,Republic/230Côted’Ivoire/ 232EquatorialGuinea/234Eritrea/236Eswatini/ 238Ethiopia/240Gabon/242Gambia,The/ 244Ghana/246Guinea/248Guinea-Bissau/ 250Kenya/252Lesotho/254Liberia/ 256Madagascar/258Malawi/260Mali/ 262Mauritania/264Mauritius/266Mozambique/ 268Namibia/270Niger/272Nigeria/274Rwanda/ 276SãoToméandPríncipe/278Senegal/ 280Seychelles/282SierraLeone/284Somalia/ 286SouthAfrica/288SouthSudan/290Sudan/ 292Tanzania/294Togo/296Uganda/298Zambia/ 300Zimbabwe MacroPovertyOutlook/April2025 3 TheMacroPovertyOutlookisjointlyproducedbythePovertyandtheEconomicPolicyGlobalDepartmentsoftheWorldBank. ThecutoffdateforinformationformostcountrieswasApril10,2025. Cambodia CentralPacificIslands ChinaFiji IndonesiaLaoPDRMalaysiaMongoliaMyanmar EastAsia NorthPacificIslandsPapuaNewGuineaPhilippines SolomonIslandsSouthPacificIslandsThailand Timor-Leste VietNam andthePacific MacroPovertyOutlook/April2025 5 CAMBODIA Cambodia'srealGDPgrowthisprojectedtomoderateto4.0percentin2025amidglobaltradepolicyshifts,heighteneduncertaintyandslowerglobalgrowth.Whilepovertyisex-pectedtodeclinegradually,thepaceofpovertyreductionmaybeconstrainedbyrisinginflation,uneveneconomicperformanceacrosssectors,andheightenedvulnerabilitiesinlabor-intensiveexportindustries. Keyconditionsandchallenges Asasmallopeneconomywithexportsaccountingforalmost60percentofGDP,Cambodiaisparticularlyexposedtotheongo-ingshiftsinglobaltradepoliciesandrisinguncertaintyintheexternalenvironment.TheUSisCambodia’slargestexportdes-tination,accountingfor39percentoftotalexportsand29per-centofGDP,nearlydoubletheshareofexportsgoingtoASEANat20percentandtheEU27at17percent,whileChinaaccountsfor47percentofimportsandhalfofFDI.Thedomesticvalue-addedembeddedinexportstotheUSamountsto8percentofGDP—comparedto6percentofGDPtoEuropeand3percenttoChina.Thelargestexposurebysectorisintravelgoods,gar-ments,andfootwear,whichcompriseabouthalfofexportstotheUSandemployaroundonemillionworkers—80percentofwhomarewomen. Recentdevelopments Economicactivitypickedupinthefirstquarterof2025,butperfor-manceremainedune