世界银行-2025年10月南亚宏观贫困展望：发展中国家的国别分析和预测，2025年年会

© 2025International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW,Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclu-sions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the TheWorld Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work.The boundaries,colors,denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, BANGLADESH GDP growth eased marginally to 4.0 percent in FY25,compared to 4.2 percent in FY24. International reservesincreased, the exchange rate stabilized, inflation started tomoderate, and investment activity slowed. Household wel-fare also deteriorated, with poverty at the US$3.0 interna- Recent developments Key conditions and challenges Real GDP growth is expected to have eased marginally to 4.0 per-cent in FY25, marking a decline for the third consecutive year. Theslowdown is primarily due to a moderation in investment growthto 0.8 percent from 3.3 percent in the previous year. Private in-vestment remained subdued, constrained by political uncertainty,high interest rates, and rising production costs. Public investment Notwithstanding a sharp deceleration in the first quarter due tothe uprising and floods, economic growth picked up in the finalquarters of FY25. External sector pressures have eased. However,there have been limited signs of the investment climate improv- Between 2023 and 2024, labor force participation fell from 60.9 to58.9 percent, driven mainly by lower female participation. The em-ployment ratio fell 2.1 percentage points to 56.7 percent, while unem- Bangladesh needs comprehensive reforms to mobilize revenue tofinance development expenditure and improve business environ-ment to create more and better jobs. For sustainable, broad basedand equitable growth in the medium term, Bangladesh will need Inflation moderated to 8.6 percent in July 2025 from a peak of 11.4percent in November 2024, driven by easing food inflation andtight monetary policy. The policy rate has remained unchanged at10 percent since October 2025, with Bangladesh Bank indicating wages of low-paid workers by 1.9 percent in FY25. As a result,poverty at the $3.0 USD line (2021 PPP) is projected to increaseby 0.6 percentage points, pushing 1.2 million more people intopoverty, while inequality declines slightly (0.2 Gini points) due to by easing political uncertainty, falling interest rates, and a recovery Labor market conditions are expected to improve in FY26, withhousehold labor income projected to rise by 2.9 percent. Povertyat the $3.0 USD line (2021 PPP) is forecast to decline to 6.9 percent,while inequality is projected to narrow slightly to a Gini index of The current account balance turned to a surplus of US$149 millionin FY25 from a deficit of US$6.6 billion in FY24, driven by stronggrowth in remittances (27.6 percent) and exports (11.0 percent).Substantial budget support from the development partners to-wards the end of FY25 supported the financial account. As a result,the external balance improved, and foreign exchange (FX) reserves The BoP is expected to remain in surplus, supported by resilientexports and remittances, a stable exchange rate, and continuedsupport from the development partners. As a result, FX reservesare expected to increase gradually in the medium term. The fiscaldeficit is expected to stay below 5 percent of GDP in the medi- Outlook Real GDP growth is projected to increase to 4.8 percent in FY26.As inflation declines, private consumption growth is expected tostrengthen. Exports are expected to remain robust, supportedby reduced uncertainty related to US tariffs. However, despite Risks are tilted to the downside. Further weakening of the bankingsector, increased political instability surrounding the election, weakimplementation of reforms, trade disruptions due to policy uncer-tainty, and persistent inflation could weigh on economic activities. BHUTAN Bhutan’s growth accelerated to 7.0 percent in FY24/25, ledby the commissioning of Puna-II hydropower plant and con-struction of two major hydropower plants. Fiscal deficit re-mained relatively low at 2.9 percent of GDP, while the cur-rent account deficit remained elevated. Growth is projected poverty risks that intersect with employment patterns, as major-ity of rural workers (60.5 percent) and women (50.7 percent) areemployed in climate-sensitive agriculture. Joblessness skews to-ward the urban (5.4 percent) and educated (12.2 percent for bache- Key conditions and challenges Emigration is a critical challenge for Bhutan with around 9 percentof the populat