家庭去杠杆化：国际惯例：泰国（英）

IMFSelected IssuesPaperAsia and Pacific DepartmentHousehold Deleveraging: International Practices: ThailandPrepared byYing XuAuthorized for distribution byCorinne DeléchatApril 2025IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staffas background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it wascompleted onJanuary 27, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No25/46.ABSTRACT:Household sector over-indebtedness has been a critical issue in Thailand in recent years. Thispaper starts with a summary of the deleveraging measures implemented so far in Thailand, and then presentsfour country case studies (Brazil, Hungary, Korea, andMalaysia), with a focus onthe measures introduced bythe authorities to address high levels ofunsecured loans as they are more relevant to Thailand’s current riskprofile. The case studies are followed by a brief overview of other relevant internationalexperiencesinfacilitatingdebt rehabilitation, forgiveness, and bankruptcy. The study concludes by suggesting acomprehensive, multi-pronged approach to household deleveraging in Thailand.RECOMMENDED CITATION:Xu,Y.(2025).Household Deleveraging: International Practices,IMF SelectedIssues Paper, Asia andPacificDepartment, SIP/2025/055.Washington, D.C.: InternationalMonetary Fund.G21, G51, E58Household debt, consumer credit, debt rehabilitation, debtreliefYxu5@imf.org JEL Classification Numbers:Author’s E-Mail Address: Keywords: SELECTED ISSUESPAPERSHousehold Deleveraging:International PracticesThailandPrepared byYing Xu11The author would like to thank Corinne Deléchat andRupa Duttagupta for their valuable suggestions, as well as theinformationand data shared by Rui Xu, Bank of Thailand, and Thailand National Credit Bureau. THAILANDSELECTED ISSUESApprovedByRupa Duttagupta(APD)Prepared byYing Xu (APD).HOUSEHOLD DELEVERAGING: INTERNATIONAL PRACTICES_______________________5A. Introduction__________________________________________________________________________5B. Thailand______________________________________________________________________________6C. Brazil_________________________________________________________________________________8D. Malaysia_____________________________________________________________________________10E. Korea________________________________________________________________________________12F. Hungary_____________________________________________________________________________14G. Other International Practices to Facilitate Deleveraging____________________________16H. Conclusions and Policy Recommendations_________________________________________17FIGURES1. Household Debt______________________________________________________________________62. Household Debt:Comparison with Other Countries_________________________________63. NPL Ratios by Portfolio_______________________________________________________________6TABLE1. Summary of Four Case Studies______________________________________________________20References_____________________________________________________________________________21CONTENTS INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUNDHOUSEHOLD DELEVERAGING: INTERNATIONALPRACTICES1A.Introduction1.Household sector over-indebtedness has been a critical issue in Thailand in recentyears.Household debt started to increase in the 2000s and reached its pre-pandemic peak in 2015at 85.9 percent of GDP, then slightly eased to around 82percentof GDP before the pandemic.However, driven by the sudden shock from the pandemic,the household debt-to-GDP ratiosurgedto95.5percentin 2021Q1and remained elevated at around90percentafterward (Figure 1), makingThailand one of the countries with the highest household debt-to-GDP ratio compared withemerging markets peers (Figure 2). The household debt overhang poses large risks to financialstability, in addition to being adrag on investment, consumption, and growth (IMF 2022a, IMF 2019,IMF 2022b, IMF 2023).2In recent years, the Thai authorities have implemented a number ofmeasures to support orderly household debt deleveraging. However,in the context of a weakpost-pandemic recovery,household debt has remainedelevated,declining only slowly from itspandemic peak. Existing studies show that,historically andon average, deleveraging episodes couldlast for 5 to 7 years (Bouis, 2013).A larger andfasterunwindingof non-financial sector debtoverhangscould beassociated with sizeable medium-term output gains (Chen et al., 2015).2.After briefly presenting the deleveraging measures implemented so farin Thailand,this note presents four other country case studies(Brazil, Hungary, Korea, and Malaysia), inorder to provide some useful and relevant international experiences for the Thai authorities toconsider. In particular, the case studies focus more on unsecured loans such as credit cards andpersonal loans as these are more relevant to Thailand's current risk profile. Like Thailand, Brazil alsoexperienced an increase in househol