支付手册：2025年5月版附幻灯片

Equity ResearchMay 27, 2025Trevor Williams * | Equity Analyst(415) 229-1546 | twilliams3@jefferies.comAlexander Glockner * | Equity Associate+1 (415) 229-8729 | aglockner@jefferies.comRyan Levine * | Equity Associate+1 (415) 229-1512 | rlevine4@jefferies.comKEY STOCKS FEATURED INCLUDE:PRICE TARGET$165.00$375.00PRICE TARGET$70.00 ($60.00)$165.00 ($180.00) margin dollar growth in 2H vs. 4-5% in 2Q and 7% in 1Q, which should set up FY upside if themacro remains stable, and 2) stock is not expensive at <10 FY26E EV/FCF and 12x CY26E EPS.Inside the deck:detailed views on go-forward set-ups across the group, key themes from 1Q at thecompany-level, and bull/bear cases.Please see important disclosure information on pages 94 - 101 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Summary of ChangesCompanyBlockXYZPreviousFidelity National InformationSvcsFISFiservFIPreviousCorpayCPAYGlobal PaymentsGPNMastercardMAPreviousPayoneerPAYOPreviousPayPalPYPLPaysafePSFEPreviousVisa, Inc.VPreviousWEXWEXPreviousLightspeed Commerce IncLSPDLightspeed Commerce IncLSPD CNACI WorldwideACIWPreviousCoinbaseCOINPrevious^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise noted.Please see important disclosure information on pages 94 - 101 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. RatingPrice^BUY$58.74HOLD$78.22HOLD$159.34BUY$324.31HOLD$74.09BUY$563.58BUY$6.81HOLD$69.85HOLD$12.02BUY$353.54HOLD$133.34HOLD$10.53HOLDC$14.48BUY$46.29HOLD$263.16 CompanyPrice: After-hours priceEPS Non-GAAP: 2024 EPS excludes SBCPlease see important disclosure information on pages 94 - 101 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. MAY 2025CONFIDENTIALUS Payments PlaybookMay 2025 EditionUS Payments, Processors, and FinTechPlease see important disclosure information on pages 94 - 101 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Trevor WilliamsEquity Analyst+1 (415) 229 1546twilliams3@jefferies.comAlex GlocknerEquity Associate+1 (415) 229-8729aglockner@jefferies.comRyan LevineEquity Associate+1 (415) 229-1512ryanlevine4@jefferies.com5 Summary Thoughts on Go-Forward Set-UpsSource: Jefferies, Company Data, Visible AlphaNote: Estimates reflect Street consensus.•V&MA:littledebate/controversyaroundthestockswithimprovedQTDtrendsinAprilandUS-inboundtraveltalkeddownasaconcern,butreflectedinYTDoutperformance(at52weekhighs)andvaluation(MA33xNTMP/E,V29x)whichmakesthenear-termpathhigherlessclear.WecontinuetofavorMAbasedon:1)moreconservativeFYguidewithorganicFXNrevenuegrowthimpliedtoslowfrom16%in1Q(17%ex-LeapYear)to~10%in2HandlikelyembeddedcushiononOpExgrowthandtaxrate,2)attractiverelativevaluation(15%premtoVonNTMP/Evs,high-teenslast5yravgandlowerCY26EPEG).•FI:thebloomisofftheroseforClover'sseculargrowthstorywiththeresettolow-double-digitnormalizedGPVgrowthimplyingmoresubduedorganicsharegainintheUSgoingforward,theshiftinmessagingaround2Qsignalsalowerlevelofvisibility,andevenifGPVgrowthacceleratesin 2H we don't expect it to get full credit(international expansion,inorganic contribution).The multiple at~13x FY26 isundemandingforaconsistentdouble-digit+EPSgrower,butaswe’veseenacrossthegroupoverthepastfiveyears,themigrationintoastockfocusedonasingularKPI(inthiscaseCloverGPValabrandedTPVforPYPLandUSGPVforXYZ)hasmadevaluationasecondaryconsideration.•XYZ:theAprilupdateforCashAppgrowthhavingre-acceleratedbacktothelow-teensgivesusconfidencethat1Qissueswerecontainedtoconsumerbehaviortiedtotaxrefunds,andmadeclearthatthe2QandupdatedFYguidesnowembedmeaningfulconservatism--settingupareturntopositiverevisions.WeviewtheemergingmomentuminSquare(Seller)asthemostuniqueidiosyncraticstoryacrossthegroupinFY25withrealmomentumfromgo-to-marketchanges(reinforcedbyourchecksattheNat’lRestaurantAssociationShowinlate-May:LINK),whichshouldsupportanongoingaccelerationoverthecourseoftheyear.•CPAY:westillviewasacompellingmuti-yearstory/re-ratingcandidatewithleverstoacceleratetheongoingorganicmixshifttoCorporatePayments(potentialacquisitionofAlphaGroup,MApartnershipincross-border,divestituresinFleet/Lodging).Near-termmuddiedabitbytheFY25guideleavinglittlemacrocushion,andwiththeprogressonstablecoinlegislation,CPAYhascomeunderpressureduetoitsexposuretocross-borderB2B(>20%ofrevs,thoughwedon'tviewstablecoinsasamajorthreattothebusiness).Eveninastablemacro,we'reabitskepticaloftheassumedaccelerationinUSvehicle(guideassumesgrowthacceleratesto+MSD%from-LSD%in1Q),butstillseeapathto11%FYorganicgrowthifBrazilcontinuestogrow20%+.Please see important disclosure information on pages 94 - 101 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. 26 Summary Thoughts on Go-Forward Set-UpsSource: Jefferies, Company Data, Visible AlphaNote: Estimates reflect Street consensus.•FIS:a good vehicle for defense after the recent