未来公司（FUTR）：感受到一些宏观影响，但股价反映过度

Restricted - External FUTR.L/FUTR LNOVERWEIGHTUnchangedEuropean MediaNEUTRALUnchangedPrice TargetGBp 900lowered -5% from GBp 945Price (16-May-25)GBp 668Potential Upside/Downside+34.7%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchMarket Cap (GBP mn)711Shares Outstanding (mn)106.55Free Float (%)93.1252 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn)0.4Dividend Yield (%)0.51Return on Equity TTM (%)7.06Current BVPS (GBp)947Source: BloombergPrice PerformanceExchange-LSE52 Week rangeGBP 11.59-6.31Source: IDCLink to Barclays Live for interactive chartingEuropean MediaNick Dempsey+44 (0)20 3134 5888nick.dempsey@barclays.comBarclays, UKAytaj Khalilli+44 (0)20 3134 2536aytaj.khalilli1@barclays.comBarclays, UK and away from traditional Google search, Future's new CEO, Kevin Li Ying, noted that 1) there isan ongoing behaviouralshift;2) Future's expertise in search engine optimisation and ability tomanage changes to search in the past should position them well to move fast and maintainrelevance andtrafficin the new world of search and 3) their partnership with OpenAI meansthat they are working closely with them. Of course there could be a problem at some point forFuture'strafficand monetisation from this behaviouralshift,even if it is plausible that Futurecan handle changes better than peers.FUTR.L: Financial and Valuation Metrics EPS (GBP)FY Sep20232024202520262027EPS1.41A1.24A1.23E1.26E1.38EPrevious EPS1.41A1.24A1.24E1.27E1.39EConsensus EPS1.41A1.24A1.29E1.41E1.56EP/E4.75.45.45.34.9Consensus numbers are from Bloomberg received on 16-May-2025; 12:50 GMTSource: Barclays Research2 FIGURE 1. 1H25 vs Barclays forecasts and Bloomberg consensus - P&L1H24A1H25A%change1H25E% varianceBloomberg Cons % variance264.0249.9-5%261.4-4%0.5%-2%2.9%127.4128.51%123.24%-6.8%1%-4.0%391.4378.4-3%384.7-2%377.00%-2.0%-1%0.6%-3.3%-3.3%-1.8%113.9109.8-4%111.9-2%105.8100.7-5%103.1-2%101.7-1%27.0%26.6%26.8%-17.1-12.5-27%-12.50%88.888.2-1%90.6-3%25.2%25.3%0%25.7%-2%66.465.9-1%67.3-2%57.259.74%59.60%60.0-1%Source: Company information; Barclays Research estimates1H25 results in line; outlook lowered on new cautionafterweaker MarchDelivery in 1H25 is broadly in line to fractionally light vs consensusFuture's 1H25 revenues of £378.4m were in line with Bloomberg consensus. On adjustedoperating profit and EPS they were 1% light. We were a bit ahead of consensus on revenues butnot much on operating profit, so results were 2% light for us on revenue and operating profitbut in line on EPS.Overall group organic decline was 1%, with positive organic growth in 1Qoffsetby uncertainmacro sentiment in March negativelyaffectingUS digital advertising in particular. Within thedivisional mix, Magazines were 4% ahead of us, but Go.Compare and Digital Advertising (acrossB2C and B2B) were worse.Other highlights•Future's existing buyback has £20m to run through still, but they have announced a further£50m buyback to begin as soon as the old one finishes. This is helpful technically and shows ashareholder-friendly approach.•Adjusted free cash flow was £111.5m, 111% of adjusted operating profit.•During 1H25, they acquired RNWL, an insurance walletoffering,for an initial consideration of£2.8m. They now also announced the acquisition of Kwizly in May 2025 for £0.7m initialconsideration, which provides audience engagement tools (interactive quizzes for datacollection).Outlook commentary: more cautious approach on top line in 2H; holdingmargin•At the 4-month trading update in February, they reiterated FY25 guidance of on track forcompany-compiled consensus revenue of £777m and adjusted operating profit of £218m. But 4 March was worse for Future, especially in the US: a "weaker performance ... [from] ... US directdigital advertising" before a return to growth in April.So they are now adopting "a more cautious view on the second half and expect a low single-digit decline in FY 2025 organic revenue". With this, they still expect a "stable adjustedoperating margin of 28%, alongside strong cash generation".We doubt they would point to this change if "low single-digit decline" were -0.5% or -1.0%organic growth: company-compiled consensus was flattish for FY25. Pre-1H25 results, we had-1.1% for FY25 and were more or less up-to-date on FX. Our new forecast (as discussed in thenext section) is -3.4%.We have slightly tweaked up our adjusted operating profit margin to 27.9% for FY25 vs 27.7%before; both technically are "28%".So compared to pre-results Barclays forecasts (already up-to-date for FX and with a smalltrim for macro), the new guidance is not shocking but it is somewhat worse on revenueand likely pointing to slightly lower on adjusted operating profit. The buyback is helpfulfor technical reasons, sentiment and, at these share-price levels, adjusted EPS.New vs old forecasts – estimates trimmed c.1% atoperating profitWe had already updated for FX fairly recently and had taken a slightly more cautious approachto FY25 and FY26 than we had at the start of 2025. But following management commentary atthe 1H25 s