爱彼迎（ABNB）：我们首席财务官路演的要点

25E28.230.317.716.019 May 2025136.60185.00163.93/99.885,963.6085,76476,5526M1.00.80.205/255000550060006500 RatingOutperformPrice TargetABNBAdjusted EPSABNB (USD)Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.Airbnb: Take aways from our CFO roadshowWe hosted Airbnb’s CFO Ellie Mertz for a two-day roadshow across London and Paris. Thisnote contains the key themes and messages from the group lunches/meetings we attended.Focus on growth.Ellie expresses that while the margin/FCF delivery has been strong, thecompany has not been satisfied with the level of growth and are investing to accelerate.They still see opportunities in core markets where there is a fall off from brand awarenessto usage, and from traffic share to booking share: focus is on incremental supply, heartlandstates in the US and targeting under-penetrated demographics. They continue to push intonew markets — with Brazil the first target market already delivering ~30% growth. Then theyare also beginning to process of growing beyond the core.Experiences & Services.As expected new product launches were a key focus. They havethree aims: (1) combined they look to be scaled ~$1bn revenue products in 3-5 years andexpect to show a meaningful exit rate this year towards that goals, (2) by adding services,they look to attract hotel customers to Airbnb, and (3) eventually they would look to persuadecustomers to use the product locally. Lots of focus on how the app fits better into the traveljourney to encourage cross booking, and they highlight the desire for new products to be in a“managed marketplace” as opposed to the initial “unmanaged” property marketplace, wherethey have had to retrospectively solve for reliability.AI strategy.Currently, Airbnb is not expecting to lean into any 3rdparty agentic AI. Theyare investing in their own AI products, with customer service phase one, with savingsinvested into, inter alia, providing better service to luxury bookers. Phase two will be their ownconcierge/trip planner — but don't expect this in the short term.Capital allocation:Company has sufficient liquidity, this is enabling them to experimentwith different payment terms (higher bookings offset lower working capital inflow) and cancontinue to return excess cash.Investment ImplicationsWe rate Airbnb Outperform.See the Disclosure Appendix of this report for required disclosures, analyst certifications and otherimportant information. Alternatively, visit our Global Research Disclosure Website.First Published: 20 May 2025 14:15 UTC Completion Date: 20 May 2025 13:55 UTC F24AF25EF26E4.114.515.58FinancialsF24AF25EF26ERevenues (M)11,10212,27813,849EBITDA (M)4,0414,3195,034EBITDA Margin (%)38.139.841.0FCF (M)4,4744,7835,393 DETAILSThe new business lines — Experiences & Services:With the announcement of the new Experiences & Services products occurring only last week, both were a key topic:•The ambition— Airbnb expect to scale the Experiences & Services products into a $1bn+ revenue business, within the next3-5 years, and expects the business to become accretive to the bottom line — the products are not loss-leaders. Expect2025 to be the build year, 2026 to be the scaling year and 2027 when we see some efficiencies alongside the growth.•The opportunity set:•1stis both are compelling standalone scaled businesses.•2ndthe Services products helps bridge the service gap to hotels, with better services available Airbnb strengthens itsability to gain share from hotels.•3rdboth the Experiences and Services products involve higher frequency interactions — allowing more frequent touchpoints with guests than the core lodging product. Ultimately this can be used to drive local/domestic demand.•The execution:•Airbnb have focused on quality in their introduction of the Experiences & Services offering, highlighting they have learnedfrom the actions they have had to take in their core business (introducing AirCover, removing low quality listings), andtherefore introduced vetting to ensure they begin with a high quality managed marketplace from day one. For similarreasons Airbnb are looking to build out the market themselves rather than look at M&A opportunities (GetYourGuide,Viator, Klook).•The app has been redesigned to include Experiences & Services directly, and Airbnb are focused on introducing theproducts at the right stage in a customers journey — between the initial accommodation / flight booking stage, and thestay.•Management is confident in scaling supply — The company highlight the category is not new, and delivering incrementaldemand in a market where demand and supply struggle to meet is valuable to service / experience providers. Expect tosee supply growing through the summer.•The pyramid of inventory — Supply is relatively broad based (avg. experiences price is $66 and 50% of services under$50), but Airbnb want to create a pyramid, with some high-end very exclusive (originals / Celebrity) experiences to driveengagement.•What’s different to last time?The pricing wasn