2025年4月中国大陆大宗商品产量：价格疲软限制建筑材料供应

Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation LimitedView HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comListen to our insightsFind out moreHSBC Global Research PodcastsHoward Lau*, CFAAnalyst, China MaterialsThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedhoward.h.b.lau@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6625Daniel Yang*Analyst, Asia Energy TransitionThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limiteddaniel.h.yang@hsbc.com.hk+852 299 66976Jonathan Brandt, CFAAnalyst, GEMs ex-Asia Metals & Mining,Pulp & PaperHSBC Securities (USA) Inc.jon.brandt@us.hsbc.com+1 212 525 4499Shilan Modi*, CFAAnalyst, Metals & MiningHSBC Bank Middle East Ltd, DIFCshilan.modi@hsbc.com+971 564 1212 04Santhosh Seshadri*, CFAAnalyst, Global Fertilizers and AgribusinessHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) PrivateLimitedsanthosh.seshadri@hsbc.co.in+91 80 4555 2758* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsEquities & CommoditiesMetals & MiningChina ◆◆◆ China metal and energy production dataFigure 1: China productionProduct__________________Output____________________Output growth historical (y-o-y)Jan-Apr’25Annual-isedy-o-y Apr’25Annual-isedIP6.4%Ferrous6.2%Non-ferrous^6.9%Power & heat1.5%Raw chemical materials8.9%Electricity outputbn kWh2,9849,0760.1%7118,675Cementmt4951,507-2.8%1652,017-5.3%Glassmt319969-4.8%80Commodities productionCrude steelmt3451,0500.4%861,049Aluminiummt14.845.03.4%3.8Coalmt1,5854,8206.6%3894,750Crude oil processingmt2407310.8%58Crude oil productionmt722181.2%18Natural gasbcm872665.3%22Ethylenemt12.237.17.3%3.0^ Includes metals smelting and processing, Source: National bureau ofStatistics, HSBCFigure 2a: China production y-t-d growth(y-o-y)Figure 2b: China production growthApril’25(y-o-y)Source: National Bureau of Statistics, HSBCSource: National Bureau of Statistics, HSBC-10%-5%0%5%10%IPFerrousNon-ferrousPower & heatRaw chemical materialsElectricity outputCementGlassCrude steelAluminiumCoalCoking coal thereofCrude oil processingCrude oil productionNatural gasEthyleneIndustry aggregatesIndicatorsCommoditiesRaw chemical materialsCoking coal thereofCrude oil processingCrude oil productionIndustry aggregatesIndicatorsCommodities China metalproduction, inventory, and pricesChina metal production and inventoryFigure 3: Steel production (annualised)Figure 4: Steel inventory at major mills*Historical numbers are not restated. Source: National Bureau of Statistics, HSBCSource: MySteel, HSBCFigure 5: Aluminium production(annualised, based on NBS)Figure 6: Aluminium inventory03006009001,2001,500JanFebMarKt2022-24 range2024*Historical numbers are not restated. Source: National Bureau of Statistics, HSBCSource: CRU, HSBCFigure 7: Raw coal production(annualised)Figure 8: Thermal coal inventory at QHDport (mt)4.05.06.07.08.0JanFebMarMt2022-24 range2024*Historical numbers are notrestated. Source: National Bureau of Statistics, HSBCSource: Sxcoal, HSBC7007508008509009501,0001,0501,1001,1501,200JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecMt202220232024202510121416182022JanFebMarApr202231.034.037.040.043.046.0JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecMt20222023202420252,8003,3003,8004,3004,8005,300JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecMt2022202320242025 HSBC commodity forecastsFigure 11: Commodity forecasts vs. spot________2025e_________CommodityUnitSpot*HSBCeAluminiumUSD/t2,487CopperUSD/t9,479Iron ore fines (CIF)USD/t99Steel (China HRC ex VAT)USD/t400Thermal coal (Seaborne)USD/t99Thermal coal (China)RMB/t620Note: *Priced as at close of16 May2025, **In 2025USD terms.Source: Bloomberg,LSEGDatastream, HSBC estimatesFigure 12: China HRC steel–spot vsHSBC forecastsSource:LSEGDatastream, CEIC, HSBC estimates2003004005006007008009001,000Dec-16Jun-17Dec-17Jun-18Dec-18Jun-19Dec-19Jun-20Dec-20Jun-21Dec-21Jun-22Dec-22Jun-23Dec-23Jun-24Dec-24Jun-25USD/tSpot pricesAverage spotEstimated average Source:LSEGDatastream, HSBC 6Disclosure appendixAnalyst CertificationThe followinganalyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s)whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s)of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) orissuer(s), any views or forecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s) is(are) named as author(s), and anyotherviews or forecasts expressed herein, including any views expressed on the back page of the research report, accurately reflecttheir personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specificrecommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Howard Lau, CFA, Daniel Yang, Jonathan Brandt, CFA, ShilanModi, CFA and Santhosh Seshadri, CFAImportant disclosuresEquities: Stock ratings and basis for financial analysisHSBC and