PJM容量拍卖最新观点仍显示出合理强劲的结果

Julien Dumoulin-Smith * | Equity Analyst+1 (281) 774-2066 | jds@jefferies.comPaul Zimbardo * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 778-8497 | pzimbardo@jefferies.comBrian Russo, CFA * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 778-8559 | brusso@jefferies.comJamieson Ward, CFA * | Equity Analyst+1 (281) 774-2081 | jamieson.ward@jefferies.comDushyant Ailani, CFA * | Equity Analyst1 (212) 778-8318 | dailani@jefferies.comTanner James, CFA * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 788-8667 | tjames@jefferies.comWhitney Mutalemwa * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 707-6413 | wmutalemwa@jefferies.comHannah Velasquez * | Equity Associate+1 (347) 982-6038 | hvelasquez@jefferies.comEthan Corcoran * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 284-2462 | ecorcoran@jefferies.comSpark Li * | Equity Associate+1 (713) 308-4573 (office) | sli8@jefferies.comQudrat Qureshi * | Equity Associate(646) 530-5925 | qqureshi@jefferies.comWe continue to forecast a relatively robustoutcome for the forthcoming PJM capacityauction for 2026/27 to be held next month.With our estimate no longer assuming aclear'along the ceiling',we stress ourforecast lacks confidence given the sharplypitched shape of the demand curve. In short,small withdrawals in generator deactivationsand/or demand response could swing theoutcome. Cannot be confident, but we stressthere is increasingly a downside bias. Ourbiasremains for a clearing price closeto the last auction print at $270/MW-dayas higher demand curve is largely offsetwith canceled retirements and new demandresponse participation. Ping us for our S/Dmodel. We estimate a 11GW FRR to adjust the Demand CurvePJM’s preliminary planning parameters for 2026/27 BRA indicated reliability requirement of 146GWwith a price cap and floor of $329.17 and $177.24 per MW-day. However, we note that preliminaryparameters did not include any FRR obligation.Notably 136 GW cleared at ~$270/MW-day in 2025/26 BRA. 2025/26 BRA had ~11.5GW of loadfrom FRR entities that translated into ~10.9GW of FRR obligation at Forecast Pool Requirement(FPR) of 0.9387.Below, we include a table on historical FRR load as given in previous PJM planning parameters.Exhibit 1 - Historical FRR Obligation.Change in parametersInstalled Reserve Margin (IRM)Pool-wide 5-year Average EFORdPool-wide Accridated UCAP FactorForecast Pool Requirement (FPR)Preliminary Forecast Peak LoadReliability RequirementPreliminary FRR ObligationReliability Requirement Adjusted for FRRSource: PJM, JEFeWith similar FRR load expectation at Forecast Pool Requirement (FPR) of 0.917 as given in recentlypublished preliminary 2026/27 BRA parameters would translate into FRR obligation of ~11GW andFRR adjusted reliability requirement of ~135.1GW a touch above 2025/26 BRA of ~133.6GW. Wethen adjusted UCAP level MW as given in 2026/27 prelim parameters for point a, b, c for variableresource requirement curve by taking out adjusted FRR obligation, which is further adjusted byNominated PRD MW to derive UCAP level MW for point a, b, and c in the demand curve.Removing Energy Efficiency (EE) from Demand/Supply:Last year, PJM filed appeal to FERC toremove EE from capacity markets in order to lower total capacity payments since EE participates inboth demand and supply. This was later approved by FERC. We account for this by no longer addingEE to our demand curve and extracting estimated EE participation from the supply curve.Supply Stack: Expect ~0.5GW of Net Addition from2025/26 BRA•Demand Response—1.9 GW:We assume 1.9 GW of incremental Demand Response resourcesvs previous auction on top of ~136GW supply cleared in 2025/26 auction. We assume that the1.9 GW decrease in prior cleared DR capacity returns fully to participate in this auction giventhe higher expected clearing price. We till see an upward bias above this level still too.•Must-Run (RMR)—2.1 GW:We also consider ~2.1GW of supply from RMR units comprised ofBrandon Shores Units 1 & 2, and H.A. Wagner Units 3 & 4 of Talen Energy.•Limited RRI—150 MW:We see limited capacity (~150MW) eligibility for the upcoming2026/2027 auction from PJM's Reliability Resource Initiative (RRI). This nascent effort to bringback capacity remains targeted still several years out for Summer '30+ principally.•Elgin—540 MW:Notably, Middle River previously withdrew plans to shut down its gas-fired540MW Elgin power plant.•Deactivations—3.2 GW:We see ~3.6GW of capacity formally requested for deactivation in2025 post 2025/26 BRA that includes ~2.7GW of Coal, 845MW of Gas fired plants. Whilereliability analysis still underway, we assume these capacities won’t be participating in 2026/27BRA.Please see important disclosure information on pages 8 - 12 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. 2026/272025/262024/252023/242022/2319.10%17.80%14.70%14.80%14.50%5.02%5.04%5.08%78.00%79.70%0.9170.93871.08941.09011.0868159,329153,883150,640149,680150,229146,105144,450164,111163,172163,27411,00710,88632,05231,34631,012135,098133,564132,059131,826132,262 •Energy Effeciency-1.5