中国煤炭：现货价格将考验600元 吨水平

Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation LimitedView HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comListen to our insightsFind out moreHSBC Global Research PodcastsDaniel Yang*Analyst, Asia Energy TransitionThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limiteddaniel.h.yang@hsbc.com.hk+852 299 66976Evan Li*Head, Asia Energy Transition ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedevan.m.h.li@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6619Vivian Zhou*AssociateGuangzhou* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsEquitiesMetals & MiningChina ◆◆◆ Previous reports◆China Shenhua Energy: H/A: Downgrade to Reduce/Reduce: Less defensive, more cyclical,28 April 2025◆China Coal:No relief on inventory issue, 16 April 2025◆China Shenhua Energy: Hold/Hold: Watch for supply-side adjustments, 31 March 2025◆China Coal: Coal price heading tofour-year low, 4 March 2025Where is China Shenhua on the energy transition journey?The company currently has100% of revenue sourced from coal-related activities, which include coal mining extraction, coallogistics and services, coal-to-chemicals, and coal power generation. To reduce its coalexposure, Shenhua invested RMB6bn to set up Guoneng New Energy Industrial funds, whichwill be focused on acquiring wind and solar projects andinvestingin hydrogentechnologies. For2025, Shenhua has plans to invest RMB2.4bn onrenewableprojects todiversify away from itscoal exposure. 3 ValuationMethodology: DCF (unchanged).Assumptions:◆We keep theWACC of4.80%unchanged, which isderived from abeta of 0.50, acost of equity of 6.6%, cost of debt of 3.5%,risk-free rate of 3.75%, amarket riskpremium of 5.75%, which all remainunchanged.◆The terminal growth rate is-3% (unchanged), to factor in the gradual phase-out ofcoal power generation in ChinaH share TP:Wemaintainourtarget priceatHKD25.0unchanged.Our TP implies25%downside from the current share price; accordingly, weretainour Reduce ratingonShenhua-H.A-share TP:We deriveour target price forShenhua-A by converting the H sharetarget price by applying a 24% H/A discount (unchanged). We then apply HSBC FXteam’s end-25 RMB/HKD exchange rate of 1.05 (unchanged), arriving at ourunchangedTP of RMB31.0. Our A-share TP implies c22% downside. Therefore, weretainour Reduce rating onShenhua-A. Risksto our viewUpsiderisksfor H/A shares:Higher-than-expected coaldemanddue to strong power demand fromdownstream IPPs’ coalconsumption;stronger-than-expected coal prices;greatercostcuts than forecast; and faster-than-expecteddevelopment of newassets. Disclosure appendixAnalyst CertificationThe following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s)whose name(s)appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) orissuer(s), any views or forecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s) is(are) named as author(s), and any otherviews or forecasts expressed herein, including any views expressed on the back page of the research report, accurately reflecttheir personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specificrecommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Daniel Yang and Evan LiImportant disclosuresEquities: Stock ratings and basis for financial analysisHSBC and its affiliates, including the issuer of this report (“HSBC”) believes an investor's decision to buy or sell a stockshoulddepend on individual circumstances such as the investor's existing holdings, risk tolerance and other considerations and thatinvestors utilise various disciplines and investment horizons when making investment decisions. Ratings should not be used orrelied on in isolation as investment advice. Different securities firms use a variety of ratings terms as well as different ratingsystems to describe their recommendations and therefore investors should carefully read the definitions of the ratings used ineach research report. Further, investors should carefully read the entire research report and not infer its contents from theratingbecause research reports contain more complete information concerning the analysts' views and the basis for the rating.From 23rd March 2015 HSBC has assigned ratings on the following basis:The target price is based on the analyst’s assessment of the stock’s actual current value, although we expect it to take sixto 12months for the market price to reflect this.When the target price is more than 20% above the current share price, the stockwillbe classified as a Buy; when it is between 5% and 20% above the current share price, the stock may be classified as a Buy oraHold; when it is between 5% below and 5% above the current shar