Bodycote（BOY LN）：2025年4个月-开局疲软，但前景有望改善

Issuer of report:HSBC Bank plcView HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comListen to our insightsFind out moreHSBC Global Research PodcastsMAINTAIN BUYTARGET PRICE(GBPp)650SHARE PRICE(GBPp)526(as of26May 2025)MARKET DATAMarket cap(GBPm)Market cap (USDm)3m ADTV (USDm)FINANCIALS AND RATIOS(GBPp)Year to12/2024aHSBC EPSHSBC EPS (prev)Change (%)Consensus EPSPE (x)Dividend yield (%)EV/EBITDA (x)ROE (%)52-WEEK PRICE(GBPp)Source:LSEGIBES, HSBC estimatesStephan Klepp*, CFAUKIndustrials | UK MidCap Equity AnalystHSBC Bank plcstephan.klepp@hsbc.com+44 20 7718 9503* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsEquitiesMachineryUnited Kingdom05/24Target price: 650 1,27248.3748.370.047.0613.43.56.812.411/24 ◆◆◆ PREVIOUS TARGET(GBPp)630UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE+23.5%940Free floatBBG3RIC12/2025e41.8838.8945.97High: 754 Low: 461 Current: 526 98%BOY LNBOY.L12/2026e12/2027e47.7453.7743.7449.657.79.18.351.3256.0012.611.09.84.04.34.75.74.94.311.613.013.742061080005/25 2Financial statementsYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026eProfit & loss summary(GBPm)Revenue757698EBITDA199201Depreciation & amortisation-70-87Operating profit/EBIT129113Net interest-10-12PBT2853HSBC PBT120101Taxation-8-12Net profit2041HSBC netprofit9076Cash flow summary(GBPm)Cash flow from operations153140Capex-70-73Cash flow from investment-126-104Dividends-43-40Change in net debt8141FCF equity6933Balance sheet summary(GBPm)Intangible fixed assets321319Tangible fixed assets491475Current assets199198Cash & others1928Total assets1,0671,0451,075Operating liabilities366314Gross debt151199Net debt68110Shareholders' funds668633Invested capital690712Ratio, growth and per share analysisYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026eY-o-y % changeRevenue-5.7-7.8EBITDA-1.40.9Operating profit1.1-12.2PBT-74.688.0HSBC EPS0.5-13.4Ratios (%)Revenue/IC (x)1.11.0ROIC13.412.5ROE12.411.6ROA1.93.9EBITDAmargin26.228.7Operating profit margin17.016.2EBITDA/net interest (x)20.916.3Net debt/equity10.217.2Net debt/EBITDA (x)0.30.5CF from operations/net debt223.4128.2293.8Per sharedata(GBPp)EPS Rep (diluted)10.7022.5742.44HSBC EPS (diluted)48.3741.8847.74DPS23.0021.2022.70Book value365.90359.01380.28Financials & valuation:Bodycote Weincrease ourrevenue & earningsestimatesfor 2025 by 0-8% due to the lesser thananticipated impact from tariffs. However, westill remain cautious and stay below the VAconsensus for FYYear-endDecember(GBPm unless stated)2025e2026e2027e2025e2026e2027eRevenueNew697.7701.7715.2RevenueHSBC697.7701.7715.2Old696.5698.2711.6Consensus715.7727.2748.1% Change0.2%0.5%0.5%% Difference-2.5%-3.5%-4.4%Adj EBITANew113.2125.3137.6Adj EBITAHSBC113.2125.3137.6Old106.1115.9128.0Consensus120.2131.2144.5%Change6.7%8.1%7.5%% Difference-5.8%-4.6%-4.7%Adj. EPS (p)New41.947.753.8Adj. EPS (p)HSBC41.947.753.8Old38.943.749.6Consensus45.450.656.6% Change7.7%9.1%8.3%% Difference-7.7%-5.7%-5.0%Source:VisibleAlphaconsensus, HSBC estimatesRevenue split between H1/H22025isexpected to be around 51.4%/48.6%H2 Adjusted operating profit is expected togrow sequentially benefitting from theoptimisationprogrammeSource:Company data, HSBC estimatesSource:Company data, HSBC estimates313303359385420382399358358339-20%-10%0%10%20%30%01002003004005001H20212H20211H20222H20221H20232H20231H20242H20241H2025e2H2025eGroup Revenue (GBP m)YoY growth (%)4946516263656762536015.6%15.2%14.1%16.0%14.9%16.9%16.7%17.4%14.9%17.6%5%7%9%11%13%15%17%19%0204060801001201H20212H20211H20222H20221H20232H20231H20242H20241H2025e2H2025eGroup - Adjusted operating profit (GBP m)Group - Adjusted operating margin (%) 4Bodycote–Valuation and risksValuationBodycoteBOY LNCurrent price:526pTarget price:650pUp/downside:+23.5%Ourblendedvaluation approach leads us to our rounded target price of 650p (from630p previously). We use a 50/50 blend of the fair values per share derived from oursum-of-the-parts valuation approach (600p, previously570p) and our DCF model(690p,unchanged). In ourview, the SOTP captures how the market is now pricingcompanies with similar exposure and prospects, whereas the DCF modelencapsulates the longer-term potential of the company.A sum-of-the-parts approach seems appropriate to us given the different growthprospects and margin opportunities for Classical Heat Treatment and SpecialistTechnologies. We base our SOTP on our estimates for 2025:◆For Precision Heat Treatment, our target EV/EBITDA multiple is 6.0x(unchanged). This is a c2% discount to the peer average of 6.2x(unchanged) due to the division’s low growth prospects.◆For Specialist Technologies, we assign a target EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.0x(unchanged), with a premium of c30% due to Bodycote’s higher growthdynamics, differentiatedofferings, and higher margins.◆For the Non-core business activities we assign a target multiple of 2.0x(unchanged) to reflect the very low margins.◆For Corporate & Central Cost, we use a target EV/EBITDA multiple of 12.0x(unchanged), which is in sync with our UK Industrial cove