中国包装纸：困于疲弱的基本面

Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation LimitedView HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comListen to our insightsFind out moreHSBC Global Research PodcastsMarket cap3m ADTV2026e2026e(USDm)(USDm)P/E (x)P/B (x)Div. yield(%)1.83.111.50.31.21.65.80.3Howard Lau*, CFAAnalyst, China MaterialsThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedhoward.h.b.lau@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6625Fred Wong*Associate, China Materials ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedfred.wong@hsbc.com.hk+852 2822 1109Yaya Huang*AssociateGuangzhou* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsEquitiesContainers & PackagingChina ◆◆◆ 2026e1.36.0 Demandstays muted near-term; we see potential catalysts fromdirect policy stimulus and easing trade tension,but far not enoughDuring April-May, overall domestic demand has remained weak due to off-season effects, tariffpolicy uncertainties, and cautious sentiment.Although key paper mills offered price discounts,demandremained tepid.In 2024, export demand accounted for c10% of supply. However, givenconcerns overpotential repeatedexport barriers, we expect both direct export and indirectexport that tie to trading orders to be adversely impacted in 2025.In the near term, we expect marginal demand improvement in May-June from demand driverslike“618 e-commerce festivals”and summer order preparations.Lookingahead, we list twopotentialcatalysts, including:1) Domestic stimulus:we expect direct stimulus like trade-inprograms could boost consumption of home appliances and logistics demand. For example,wesee positivesupportthatnational expressdeliveryvolumes exceeded 4.8bn parcels, up 20%y-o-y, during the 2025“Labour day”holiday(1-5May 2025), hitting record highs.2) Easingtrade tensions:On12May,US andChinareached anagreementto lowerthetariff levelto10%-30%, which we expect to alleviatedownstream’sworries, improve overall sentiment andrestore restocking confidence.However,wereiterate our concerns on industry-wideovercapacity, notingthe potential demand recoverymaynotbestrong enoughto cover theincreased capacity, limiting ASP improvement.Exhibit2: Food manufacturing sales y-o-ygrowthExhibit3: Large home appliance sales y-o-ygrowth-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2022202320242025-30%-10%10%30%50%70%JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2022202320242025Source: Wind, HSBCSource: Wind, HSBCExhibit4: Daily necessities sales y-o-ygrowthExhibit5: Delivery service revenue y-o-ygrowth-15%-5%5%15%25%35%JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2022202320242025-20%0%20%40%60%80%JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2022202320242025Source: Wind, HSBCSource: Wind, HSBC Supply:Increased productionfrom newly-added capacitypartlyoffset by declining imports;oversupply to persistDomesticpackaging paperoutput has recorded y-o-y growthin YTD 2025, driven by expandedcapacityin previous years. In 2024,c5.6mt new capacity was online while outdated capacityclosures were far outweighed by the new additions. In the nearterm, although some paper millsare cutting output slightly amid high inventory pressureorareshutting down formaintenance,overall supply remains abundant.Meanwhile,YTD imported paperhave decreased y-o-y due to weaker pricing advantagescompared to thelowdomesticspot price.Thedeclining imports help ease some supply-sidepressure, but the impactislimited.Moreover, we havenot seen signs of industry consolidationor capacityclearance,withthe number ofoperatingpapercompaniesincreasing y-o-yin 2025YTD(Exhibit6). Overall, we expectsupplysurplus toremain in 2025.Exhibit6:Operating papercompaniesinChinaExhibit7:Loss-makingpapercompaniesstatisticsin China5000550060006500700075008000850020172018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025Operating companies05001,0001,5002,0002,5003,00020172019202120232025# of loss making companies (LHS)% of total number of players (RHS)Source: Wind,HSBCSource: Wind, HSBC 30%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40% Margin:ASPdeclinesmore than offset weaker coal and pulpprices;margin compression to continue amid overcapacityPapermarginsstayedcompressedin Jan-April2025as falling ASPs more than offset thedecline in costs, witha rising number ofloss-making companies.In May, paper marginrecovered slightly, mainly due to lower production costs (both coal and pulp prices, seeExhibit8).Lookingahead, we expect paper margin toremain range-bound and move with industry’sdemand seasonality in 2H25.While stronger demand may lift ASPs andhelp margin recovery,we see limited upside riskson marginsamid increasingcapacity and oversupply issue.Higherpulp prices from potentialdisruption of pulp imports may further compress margin.ASP:After continuous declines in Jan-Apr 2025, we expect packaging paper prices tohover atthe current price level in the near term, the off-peak season.Goingforward, we see actualdemand to be the key of ASP movement,andASPcouldrebound due to stronger demand inthepeak season or i