强劲的长期需求

Restricted - External Samuel Earl+ 1 212 526 5426samuel.earl@barclays.comBCI, USAnshul Pradhan+1 212 412 3681anshul.pradhan@barclays.comBCI, USDemi Hu+1 212 526 7398demi.hu@barclays.comBCI, US 1https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financial-markets-financial-institutions-and-fiscal-service/debt-limitare down about $40bn since early April. Meanwhile, data on Japanese investors shows theywere quite strong buyers, adding $19bn in foreign notes and bonds. Still, this data was for May16, a bit before the latest worries over the long-end in Japan cropped up over recent days asyields there had risen even further before retreating overnight. We are looking to the next fewreleases to see how Japanese investors react to higher domestic yields and whether that leadsto any repatriation flows.Mutual funds and ETFs•Over the five days through May 23, US bond funds had $10.5bn of inflows, which compareswith the prior four-week average of $4.3bn in inflows. The latest data bring total year-to-dateinflows to $139bn (versus $161bn over the same period in 2024).•The breakdown of flows over the five days through May 23 as a percentile over the prior sixmonths for various fund types shows that intermediate-term government and high-yieldbond funds had the weakest demand, while long-term government, inflation-protected, andmixed intermediate-term bond funds had the strongest demand.Money markets•Total money market fund assets rose $27.7bn over the week to May 21. The data show totalinflows over the past 12 months of about $903bn and AUM of about $7tn.•Over the week ending May 21, total assets on the Fed's balance sheet fell $24bn, with $3bn inTreasury coupons and $4bn in MBS runningoffthe SOMA. The change in assets compareswith an average weekly drop of $3bn over the prior four weeks.°On the liability side of the Fed's balance sheet, ON RRP fell $2bn and the TGA fell $87bn.Along with other changes, theseleftreserve balances $48bn higher.°At $3.3tn, reserves are approximately 13.6% of total bank assets and about $972bn belowthe peak in late 2021.•The Treasury continues to manage around the debt limit, which it reached in January. TheTGA was $478bn on May 22, while the Treasury has used 82% of its extraordinary measures,tapping into $299bn of its $366bn total.1•We project the x-date will fall in late August or early September. Just a small bump inreceipts, such as from customs duties, would extend the timeline to late October, while aslowing economy would tend to shorten it (see Debt ceiling: A little less fog).Asset managers, leveraged funds, and primary dealers•Our empirical duration positioning proxy, which is estimated through a regression of dailyrelative returns against market moves, shows that fixed income mutual funds have turnedneutral to slightly underweight duration versus the benchmark over the past week. A similaranalysis based on macro/CTA fund performance shows that they remain long duration,though less so than last month.•CFTC positioning data for the week ending May 20 show that asset managers' net longs (as apercentage of open interest) in UST futures and options fell across the curve in TU, FV, TY, US,Ultra-10y, and WN; positioning in TY and ultra-10y is close to the top of the past five-yearrange.2 2Based on CFTC data, which are generally released on Fridays at 3:30 for data from Tuesday of the same week.3Federal Reserve H.4.1 data are generally released on Thursdays at 4:30 pm ET.•Leveraged funds' net shorts fell in TU, FV, TY, ultra-10y and US, while they rose in WN;positioning in ultra-10y is near the shortest in the past five years.2•Primary dealer positioning in US government securities rose over the week ending May 14.Positioning in T-bills rose $23bn, while positioning in coupons fell $11bn, leaving them at the52nd and the 95th percentiles, respectively, over the past five years. In the 6-11y sectors,dealer holdings were close to the top of the range over the past five years.Commercial banks•Over the week through May 14, on an NSA basis, US commercial banks' total assets rose$156bn, driven by a $66bn increase in cash assets.•Securities portfolios fell $11bn, compared with an increase of about $15bn on average overthe prior four weeks. Treasury and agency debt holdings fell $12bn, while MBS holdingsdeclined $1bn.•Total liabilities rose, driven by a $54bn increase in deposits and a $17bn increase inborrowings.Foreign investors•Japanese investors net bought $19.4bn in foreign notes and bonds over the week ending May16. This compares with about $3.5bn of net purchases on average over the prior four weeks.•During April, Japanese investors net sold $14bn in foreign notes and bonds, up from $6bn inMarch. Banks drove the increase and sold $12bn, $7bn more than the previous month. Liferssold $1bn and pensions sold $5bn, similar to March, while other investors purchased $4bn,including $1bn from investment trusts.•Federal Reserve custody holdings of foreignofficialaccounts fell for the week ending May 21.Holdin