视频总结-近期银行启动项目的投资者反馈

David Chiaverini, CFA * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 778-8554 | dchiaverini@jefferies.comBrian Violino, CFA * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 444-4139 | bviolino@jefferies.comBrooks Dutton * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 510-3220 | bdutton@jefferies.com Pushback on our CMA UNPF rating was mostly centered on assumptions used in our DirectExpress headwind analysis, and on its potential to be a takeout candidate.In our initiation, wehighlighted concerns about the eventual runoff of ~$3.5 billion in non-interest-bearing deposits tiedto Comerica’s Direct Express contract. We estimated this could represent an ~$0.80 EPS headwind,assuming the deposits are currently invested in short-term cash equivalents yielding 4.0%. However,several investors noted that CMA has the lowest securities yield in the regional bank peer group, at~2.5%, and if these deposits are instead funding these lower-yielding securities, the EPS impact couldbe less severe. We continue to view the loss of Direct Express as a meaningful headwind to shares,but adjusting our analysis based on this investor feedback would suggest the impact may be closerto $0.50 per share. Additionally, some clients continue to view CMA as a potential takeout candidate,which could support a premium valuation over time. That said, we would reiterate management’scommentary from the most recent earnings call, which appeared to downplay the likelihood of near-term M&A activity.Flagstar is a debated name among investors, but we believe the turnaround story is firmly ontrack.Flagstar, one of our top picks, remains a polarizing name among investors, with strongviews on both sides of the debate. On the bearish side, concerns focus on the company’s abilityto successfully execute its turnaround strategy and deliver on long-term profitability targets—particularly its 2027 ROTCE goal of 12.5-12.75%. That said, we continue to believe the turnaroundstory remains intact, supported by what we view as a potential near-term inflection point in creditquality—a catalyst that could help drive improved investor sentiment. Investors also questioned whatvaluation FLG could command on a P/TBV basis if it were to meet those targets. We currentlyforecast FLG’s FY27 ROTCE to come in slightly below guidance, at ~11%. At present, FLG tradesat 0.7x TBV, compared to the mid-cap bank peer average of 1.4x. If our estimate proves accurate,we believe FLG should warrant a more modest discount valuation compared to peers, which couldjustify a potential re-rating to ~1.2x P/TBV, given its ROTCE would be only modestly below the peermedian of ~14%. Such a re-rating could drive meaningful upside, in our view, as a move to 1.2x P/TBV by year-end 2027 would imply a ~22% annualized return from current levels.Fifth Third pushback mostly tied to credit quality concerns.We also received some pushbackon our Buy rating and top pick designation for FITB, with most concerns centered on credit quality—specifically the company’s exposure to Shared National Credits (SNCs), which comprise 27%of total loans, and consumer lending, which accounts for 17% of loans. Our base case assumesthe US avoids a recession in the near term; however, we acknowledge that in the event of aneconomic downturn, FITB could face perception-driven pressure. That said, we believe any actualcredit deterioration would likely be well-contained, even in a recessionary environment. The SNCportfolio is well-diversified, independently underwritten, and approximately 60% of the loans areat or near investment grade. Additionally, the consumer loan book—which includes residentialmortgages—features a high weighted average FICO score of 767 and has demonstrated strongcredit performance through the cycle. Importantly, FITB maintains a peer-leading allowance for creditlosses, which we believe provides a meaningful buffer against any unexpected deterioration in creditquality.Some pushback on SSB Buy rating related to IBTX merger integration.While less common, we didreceive some investor pushback on our Buy rating for SouthState, primarily tied to the company’srecently closed acquisition of Independent Bank Group (IBTX). The main concern centered onpotential deposit attrition following the core system's conversion over Memorial Day weekend, andon potential loan attrition related to the departure of IBTX CEO David Brooks to a less visible boardrole, potentially leading to the loss of some client relationships. That said, we don't expect loan anddeposit attrition related to the merger to be materially different from a typical merger.Please see important disclosure information on pages 3 - 7 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Company Valuation/RisksFor Important Disclosure information on companies recommended in this report, please visit our website at https://javatar.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action or call 212.284.2300.Analyst Certification:I, David Chiaverini, CFA, certify that all of the views