联想集团（992 HK）买入：下调个人电脑前景预期；26财年服务器盈利能力将持续

Issuer of report:HSBC Securities (Taiwan)Corporation LimitedView HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comListen to our insightsFind out moreHSBC Global Research PodcastsMAINTAIN BUYTARGET PRICE(HKD)PREVIOUS TARGET(HKD)12.1014.80SHARE PRICE(HKD)UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE9.29+30.2%(as of26 May 2025)MARKET DATAMarket cap(HKDm)115,239Free floatMarket cap (USDm)14,713BBG3m ADTV (USDm)137RICFINANCIALS AND RATIOS(USD)Year to03/2024a03/2025e03/2026eHSBC EPS0.090.120.13HSBC EPS (prev)0.080.130.14Change (%)1.7-8.5-4.1Consensus EPS0.080.120.13PE (x)13.910.28.8Dividend yield (%)4.14.24.2EV/EBITDA (x)2.92.31.6ROE (%)19.025.627.252-WEEK PRICE(HKD)Source:LSEGIBES, HSBC estimatesCarol Juan*Analyst, TechnologyHSBC Securities (Taiwan) Corporation Limitedcarol.cc.juan@hsbc.com.tw+886 2 6631 2862Al Wang*Associate, Technology ResearchHSBC Securities (Taiwan) Corporation Limitedal.hy.wang@hsbc.com.tw+886 26631 2865* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations.EquitiesComputers & PeripheralsChina05/2411/2405/25Target price: 12.10High: 13.60 Low: 7.50 Current: 9.29 ◆◆◆ 56%992 HK0992.HK03/2027e0.150.17-13.70.157.94.21.225.86.7010.8515.00 2Financial statementsYear to03/2024a03/2025e03/2026eProfit & loss summary(USDm)Revenue56,86469,07774,908EBITDA3,4193,6194,235Depreciation & amortisation-1,413-1,455-1,455Operating profit/EBIT2,0062,1642,779Netinterest-615-666-524PBT1,3651,4812,125HSBC PBT1,3651,4812,125Taxation-263-20-478Net profit1,0111,3851,567HSBC net profit1,0601,4411,668Cash flow summary(USDm)Cash flow fromoperations2,0112,7452,857Capex-730-686-686Cash flow from investment-1,257-1,077-686Dividends-601-617-620Change in net debt323-851-1,551FCF equity1,2812,0602,172Balance sheet summary(USDm)Intangible fixed assets8,9178,3097,393Tangible fixed assets2,3482,2982,445Current assets22,68728,00330,853Cash & others3,6294,5396,090Total assets38,75143,96946,021Operatingliabilities29,05034,02635,052Gross debt3,6203,6783,678Net debt-10-861-2,412Shareholders' funds5,5835,6666,613Invested capital1,27246-451Ratio, growth and per share analysisYear to03/2024a03/2025e03/2026eY-o-y % changeRevenue-8.221.58.4EBITDA-15.05.917.0Operating profit-24.87.928.5PBT-36.18.543.5HSBC EPS-46.436.015.7Ratios (%)Revenue/IC (x)44.1104.8-369.7ROIC125.6324.0-1063.2ROE19.025.627.2ROA4.45.44.8EBITDA margin6.05.25.7Operating profit margin3.53.13.7EBITDA/net interest (x)5.65.48.1Net debt/equity-0.2-13.7-33.1Netdebt/EBITDA (x)-0.0-0.2-0.6CF from operations/net debtPer share data(USD)EPS Rep (diluted)0.080.110.13HSBC EPS (diluted)0.090.120.13DPS0.050.050.05Book value0.450.460.53Financials & valuation:Lenovo Group Source: HSBCNote:Priced at close of 26 May 2025 3The USD2bn convertiblebond andUSD212mworthofwarrants issued in January2025 willcontinue to haveamaterial impact onLenovo’squarterlyincome statement as “notionalinterest” and “fair value gains/losses on derivatives financial liabilities relating to warrants”overthenext three years. As a result, we believe it would be more appropriate to value Lenovo usingnon-HKFRSEPSas it better reflects Lenovo’s operating performance.Exhibit2:We expect the AI notebook penetration rate to rise in 2025-26eSource: HSBC estimatesFinancialsExhibit3: Lenovo FY4Q25results comparison_____________FY4Q25_____________ConsHSBC_____% difference_____(USDm)Actualq-o-qy-o-yestestvs consvs HSBCeSales16,984-9.6%22.8%15,66715,4698.4%9.8%Gross profit2,783-6.0%14.6%2,5122,45010.8%13.6%GM %16.4%64bps-117bps16.0%15.8%35bps55bpsOp profit331-51.9%-32.3%467501-29.1%-33.9%OPM %1.9%-171bps-158bps3.0%3.2%-103bps-129bpsNet profit90-87.0%-63.7%222231-59.5%-61.1%EPS (USD cents)0.73-87.0%-64.8%1.701.92-57.3%-62.3%Source:Companydata, HSBCestimates, Bloomberg consensus0.4%10.1%21.8%0%5%10%15%20%25%051015202530354045502024e2025e2026eWin OS - ARMWin OS - x86AI NB penetration ratemn units Source: Company data,Bloomberg, HSBC estimates Risksto our viewDownside risks:(1) Rising losses in the serverbusiness; (2) slower recovery in PC demand; and (3)slower GPU server ramp-up. 6Disclosure appendixAnalystCertificationThe following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s)whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) orissuer(s), any views or forecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s) is(are) named as author(s), andany otherviews or forecasts expressed herein, including any views expressed on the back page of the research report, accurately reflecttheir personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to thespecificrecommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Carol Juan and Al WangImportant disclosuresEquities