SMC（6273 JP）：投资者和管理层普遍乐观

FY3/25AFY3/26EFY3/27EFY3/28E792.1820.0850.0798.02,528.672,671.962,924.583,063.37803.3838.8897.6924.3224.6240.3254.0234.0 Sho Fukuhara * | Equity Analyst813 5251 6156 | sfukuhara@jefferies.comShintaro Yoshida * | Equity Associate+81 3 6830 3644 | syoshida1@jefferies.comSource: Jefferies estimates The Long View: SMCInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferWe believe SMC should be a major beneficiary of semiconductor sectordemand recovery and general manufacturing industry's ongoing pursuitfor factory automation. However, we foresee challenges for SMC's currentprofit guidance due to uncertainties in pneumatic equipment demand andlingering risks for inventory impairment losses.Base Case,¥57000, +7%SMC's strong presence in the global pneumaticequipment market should ensure the companybenefitsfrom factory automation demandacross a broad range of end-markets. However,lingering risks of inventory impairment alongwithmgmt's priority on market share gainsand intensifying competition will likely weighon investors' confidence in its near-term profitoutlook. Our base-case price target of ¥57,000 isbased on an EV/EBITDA of 12.6x, one standarddeviation below the average during FY3/23-26year to date, and our FY3/26 EBITDA forecast.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s): 1)Identification of aged facilities.2)Prevention of use of hazardous chemicalsubstances.Company Target(s): 1)Achieve 1% annual reduction in energy consumption.2)Achieve GHGemissions reduction of 50% since SMC started monitoring back in 1998.3)Recycle 100% ofconstruction waste.4)Promotion of renewable energy business: generation capacity of 650MW orhigher.Qs to Mgmt: 1)What is the time horizon to achieve carbon neutrality?2)How to secure profitabilityby controlling R&D for new products that meet ESG requirements?Please see important disclosure information on pages 10 - 15 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,¥72200, +36%FY3/26 sales exceed our base-case forecast by20%, which leads to OP beating our base-casescenario forecast by 41%, assuming constantfixed costs. We expect better OP bookings onsales volume gains in FY3/26 than our base-casescenario estimate. SMC sees stronger demandfromthe semiconductor sector,automotiveindustry, and China than that in our base-casescenario. Our bull-case price target of ¥72,200 isbased on an EV/EBITDA of 12.6x and our bull-case FY3/26 EBITDA forecast (¥313.4bn). Downside Scenario,¥42300, -21%FY3/26 sales fall short of our base-case forecastby 17%, which leads to OP missing our base-casescenario forecast by 35%, assuming constantfixed costs. We expect weaker OP bookings onsales volume gains in FY3/26 than our base-casescenario estimate. SMC sees weaker demandfromthe semiconductor sector,automotiveindustry, and China than that in our base-casescenario. Our bear-case price target of ¥42,300is based on an EV/EBITDA of 12.6x and our bear-case FY3/26 EBITDA forecast (¥162.9bn).CatalystsPositiveshare-pricecatalystssemiconductor device majors reporting strongearnings,news flow on improvement insemiconductor industry capex, YoY growth inTaiwanese pneumatic equipment competitors'monthlysales,andincreasesshareholder returns. Negative catalysts wouldbe SMC's booking inventory impairment losses,SMC's Taiwanese competitor's reporting weakmonthly sales, and lackluster OP run-rate againstSMC's full-year target. includeinSMC's2 Table 1 - SMC: Earnings Summary.FY3/22FY3/23FY3/24FY3/25FY3/26 Q1 JefEFY3/26 Q2 JefEFY3/26 Q3 JefEFY3/26 Q4 JefEFY3/26 JefE (new)FY3/26 JefE (old)FY3/26 GuidanceFY3/26 ConsensusFY3/27 JefE (new)FY3/27 JefE (old)FY3/27 ConsensusFY3/28 JefE (new)FY3/28 JefE (old)FY3/28 ConsensusSource: Jefferies estimates, company data, FactSet (as of 26 May)Chart 4 - SMC: Monthly Order Index.02040608010012014016018012345678910111212345678910111212345678910111212345678910111212345678910111212342020FY23=100; fixedforex rateSource: Jefferies estimatesChart 5 - SMC: Monthly Order Index by Region.40608010012014016018020022024012345678910111212345678910111212345678910111212345678910111212345678910111212342020JapanFY23=100; fixedforex rateSource: Jefferies estimatesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 10 - 15 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Chart 6 - SMC: Monthly Order Index by End-market.40608010012014016018020022024012345678910111212345678910111212345678910111212345678910111212345678910111212342020ElectronicsFY23=100; fixed forex rateSource: Jefferies estimatesTable 2 - SMC: Sales by Region and End-market.(¥mn)External SalesJapan188,205Semiconductor & ElectronicsAutomotiveMachineryFoodPharmaceuticalOthersNorth AmericaSemiconductor & ElectronicsAutomotiveMachineryFoodPharmaceuticalOthersEuropeSemiconductor & ElectronicsAutomotiveMachineryFoodPharmaceuticalOthersAsia213,952ChinaSemiconductor & ElectronicsAutomotiveMachineryFoodPharmaceuticalOthersAsia ex ChinaS