中国家电：第二季度展望-增长放缓出口减速

In 1H of this year, Chinese appliance market shows mixed dynamics, with Q1delivering strong performance driven by domestic subsidies and export pull-forward.April's data indicates moderation as exports flattened from Q1's growth. Despite this, Q2projections remain positive for overall AC shipment growth, with declining exports offsetby domestic growth. The domestic growth is volume-driven, with pricing competitionintensifying, particularly in entry-level segments where manufacturers like Midea areimplementing price cuts to protect market share.1Q’s appliances shipment delivered a strong quarter driven by domestic subsidyand exports pull-forward.Industry shipment data confirmed solid performance acrosskey categories, with AC shipments growing 16% YoY—driven by accelerated exports(+24% YoY), as well as overseas shipments to foreign distributors. Refrigerator andwashing machine shipments grew 3% and 9% YoY respectively. Home appliancescompanies 1Q results also reflects strong shipment, Midea led at 20.5% YoY growth,followed by Gree at 14.1% and Haier at 10.1%.April's data shows a cooling trend, but Q2 AC shipments are projected at +9%based on production plan data, with -1% in exports offset by 17% domestic growth.April AC shipments grew only 3% (down from Q1's 16%) driven by exports, which flattenedto 0% growth after Q1's strong 24% expansion. Overseas shipments also moderated from19% to 10% growth. The export deceleration was anticipated, confirming Q1's pre- tariffstock-up effect. However, the domestic Chinese shipment growth remains strong in Q2,with production plans indicating 17% YoY growth. The domestic strength is sufficient tooffset export weakness despite the mixed dynamics.Domestic sell-through growth is mainly driven by volume (Exhibit 6), with YTD Aprildata indicating 20% offline and 45% online volume increases,both with modest 3%ASP growth. This likely reflects some temporary shift toward premium SKUs driven by thenational trade-in subsidy program. However, pricing competition is intensifying, particularlyin the entry-level segment where manufacturers are competing for market share. Industryreports (link) note that leading brands are reducing prices on lower-end models, with Mideaimplementing 5% cuts across its online portfolio in April while targeting deeper 10-20%reductions on specific entry-level products (link). The stronger online growth mirrors trendsin other categories in consumer —suggesting that Chinese consumers remain value-conscious, despite the overall volume growth.We updated Midea, Gree and Haier company models:[Continued on next page…]www.bernsteinresearch.com [Continued from first page...]Midea: We forecast 9.3% YoY revenue growth and 10.3% YoY earnings growth for 2025,with Energy Solutions/Industrial Technology and Intelligent Building Technology segmentsserving as key growth driver. Our long-term model forecasts 7.7% revenue CAGR and9.1% earnings CAGR (2024-2029), incorporating conservative high-single-digit growthassumptions for Kuka. If domestic humanoid robotics manufacturing were to take off, wesee Midea the best positioned to enjoy this tailwind in our coverage. On 12x/11.5x NTM+1,we derive our TP at 76RMB/78HKD, indicating a 3-5% downside risk. Remain MP.Haier:We expect Haier to grow topline by 7.4%YoY in 2025 and earnings by 13.7%YoY.We expect overseas, especially emerging markets to lead the growth. On 11x/9x NTM+1,we derive our TP at 28RMB/25HKD, indicating a 5-6% upside potential. The TP remainslargely flat. Maintain MP.Gree:We expect Gree to grow topline by 6.5%YoY and earnings by 3%YoY in 2025. Greeislikely to see the most impact from softening domestic demand in 2H25 as national trade-in subsidy programs taper off. We therefore expect Gree's topline growth will deceleratesignificantly to 3.5% YoY in 2H25, underperforming industry peers. On 7x NTM+1, werevise our TP to 45RMB, indicating an 3% downside risk. Maintain MP. 2 BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLETickerRating000333.CH (Midea Group)MOLD000651.CH ( Gree Electric )MOLD600690.CH ( Haier Smart )MOLD6690.HKMOLD300.HK (Midea Group)MOLDASIAXPRICE TARGET CHANGE / ESTIMATE CHANGE IN BOLDO - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedSource: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONSWe maintain Market-Perform on Midea, Haier and Gree.CHINA CONSUMER DETAILSEXHIBIT 1:Home appliances shipmentShipment YoY% (Domestic + Exports + Overseas)MideaHaierGreeIndustrySource: IOL, Bernstein analysisEXHIBIT 2:Home appliances shipment by regionsDomestic vs. Exports vs. Overseas shipment YoY%GreeHaierMideaIndustryDomestic: domestic factories ship to domestic distributorsExports: domestic factories ship to overseas distributorsOverseas: overseas factories ship to overseas distributorsSource: IOL, Bernstein analysisCHINA CONSUMER MIDEAFY25Midea grew topline by 20.5% in 1Q25, driven by domestic subsidy program pull-forward and export front-load shipping. Weexpect Midea to gro