日本央行加息预期增强与超长期供求脆弱

to 77.2% on the 13th, indicating strongerRestricted - External Shinichiro Kadota+81 3 4530 1374shinichiro.kadota2@barclays.comBSJL, JapanAyao Ehara+ 81 3 4530 1379ayao.ehara@barclays.comBSJL, Japan FIGURE 2. Decomposition of yield changes (term premium and risk-neutral yield)-40-30-20-100102030402y5y10y20y30yRisk neutral yieldsTerm premiumNominal yieldsbpSource: Barclays Research (see The return of term premium)FIGURE 4. 20y JGB auction resultsForeig bondsForeign eq8-May0.901.101.301.501.701.902.102.302.502.702.42.62.83.03.23.43.63.84.0Bid coverAverage yields (RHS)Times%CurrentSource: Barclays Researchthe latter fell in the superlong sector. The slight rise in RNY may have been a response to thestrengthening of BoJ rate hike expectations linked to US-Chinatariffdiscussions.Afterrisingthrough the previous week, term premium in the superlong sector turned down with the 30yauction (Figure 1)Pension fund rebalancing is another focus. Figure 3 shows asset price changes since the start ofthe month for the past two weeks. This suggests pension fund rebalancing is likely to involveselling of foreign and domestic equities, along with corresponding buying pressure in JGBs.Week aheadThe week ahead brings a 20y JGB auction on the 20thand a 10y auction on the 22nd.Thispast Tuesday’s 30y auction cleared smoothly with the lowest accepted price matching marketforecasts as expectations for weak results had spread among market participants prior to theauction. However, aside from some pension rebalancing in response to JPY weakness/equitystrength, the superlong supply-demand structure remains weak with few active and persistentbuyers. The 20y auction results will be a test of the sector’s supply-demand structure. Source: Barclays ResearchFIGURE 3. Asset price changes-2-10123456789Domestic bondsMTD chg%Source: Barclays Research15 May 2025 2 1JGB redemptions are counted as sales (net outflows) in the MoF data.April sees rebalancingshiftfrom foreign bonds toforeign equitiesShinichiro Kadota, BSJL, Japan | Lhamsuren Sharavdemberel, BSJL, JapanThis section is a reprint ofJapan Flow Update: April sees rebalancingshiftfrom foreign bonds toforeign equities, 12 May 2025.April saw ashiftfrom foreign bonds to equities on pension rebalancing and multiyear netbuying of Japanese equities/bonds. Foreign bond selling was widespread in March andbuying slowed in FY24. Also: multiyear net buying of JGBs by foreigners and record netselling of Chinese bonds by Japan.April International Transactions in SecuritiesJapanese investorsshiftfrom foreign bonds to foreign equities led by rebalancing;net buying of Japanese equities and medium/long-term bonds by overseasinvestors reaches multiyear highsApril saw Japanese investors sell a net JPY2.0trn in foreign bonds, the most since last October,amid large swings in both rates and FX driven by developments around US reciprocaltariffs.Byinvestor, banks logged a large net sale of JPY2.6trn, perhaps partly reflecting positionadjustments at the start of the fiscal year. In addition, trust accounts (pensions) net soldJPY0.8trn, selling heavily for a second consecutive month. This presumably reflects rebalancingdue to the limited price declines in foreign bonds relative to domestic and overseas equities, aswe signalled in April Japanese pension rebalancing estimate, 17 April. Among other investors,trust banks bought a net JPY0.8trn, while life insurers sold a net JPY0.1trn, remaining on the sellside for a sixth consecutive month. According to weekly data, selling was concentrated in thefirst week of the month, when the reciprocaltariffswere announced, and followed by a turn tonet buying in the second half of the month.In foreign equities/funds, Japanese investors logged a record net purchase of JPY3.3trn, amidthe large swing in global equities following thetariffannouncements. By investor, trustaccounts net bought a record JPY2.8trn on rebalancing in response to earlier JPY appreciation/equity declines. Among other investors, investment trusts slowed their net purchases toJPY0.8trn from the previous month’s JPY1.1trn, but continued to buy at elevated levelsnevertheless, presumably driven by the new NISA program. Weekly data show that buying washeaviest during the first week of April, when thetariffswere announced.In the other direction1, overseas investors net bought Japanese securities on the largest scale inseveral years, logging net purchases of JPY3.7trn in equities, the most since April 2023, andJPY4.5trn in medium/long-term bonds, the most since July 2022. Based on weekly data,overseas investors bought equities throughout the month of April, while buying bonds in thefirst half and selling in the second half. Buying in both equities and bonds was concentrated inthe first half of the month. 3 March balance of payments (foreign securities investment bydestination)Foreign bond selling was widespread in March and buying slowed for FY24 as awhole; in EM, selling of Chinese bonds acceleratedDM:March saw g