桑兰姆有限公司2025年第一季度初步看法-谨慎的展望

Restricted - External SLMJ.J/SLM SJEQUAL WEIGHTEuropean InsurancePOSITIVEPrice TargetZAR 98.00Price (14-May-25)ZAR 87.07Potential Upside/Downside+12.6%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchEuropean InsuranceLarissa van Deventer+44 (0)20 3555 1527larissa.vandeventer@barclays.comBarclays, UK changes resulting from the termination of the Capitec relationship and sale of Namibia toSanlamAllianz (1Q24: +4%; Barclays FY25e: +9%). Management stated that on a normalisedbasis, both sales and VNB increased 4% yoy. Management stated that sales in higher marginguaranteed annuity products continued to moderate in 2025, suggesting downside risk tomargins. In addition, management cautioned that "following structural changes to the group’soperations in 2024, actual VNB growth is expected to decline significantly in 2025, but toincrease on a normalised basis".General insurance: P&C operating subsidiary Santam’s 1Q25 trading update showed 11%growth in gross written premiums (GWP) in its conventional insurance business (1Q24: 10%;Barclays FY25e: 8%). Management stated that the underwriting margin was at the upper end oftheir target range of 5-10% (1Q24: "within the range"; 1Q24: Barclays FY25e: 6.2%).Discretionary capital: At 14 May, Sanlam's discretionary capital came to R9.7bn, of whichR5.0bn is ring-fenced for Shriram insurance and stockbroking transactions which remainsubject to regulatory approvals. Management stated that they choose to maintain a"significant" discretionary capitalbufferin light of uncertainty in the current global macroenvironment.Outlook: Management's outlook is cautious. They cite downside risk as a result of the potentialinflationary impact increasedtariffs,potential supply chain disruption resulting in highergeneral insurance claims costs , along with the risk of reduced persistency and increased creditdefaults.2 Analyst(s) Certification(s):I, Larissa van Deventer, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of thesubject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to thespecific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.Important Disclosures:Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays"). Allauthors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflects thelocal time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT.Availability of Disclosures:Where any companies are the subject of this research report, for current important disclosures regarding those companies please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY10019 or call +1-212-526-1072.The analysts responsible for preparing this research report have received compensation based upon various factors including the firm's total revenues,a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities, the profitability and revenues of the Markets business and the potential interest of thefirm's investing clients in research with respect to the asset class covered by the analyst.Research analysts employed outside the US byaffiliatesof Barclays Capital Inc. are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. Such non-US research analysts may not be associated persons of Barclays Capital Inc., which is a FINRA member, and therefore may not be subject to FINRA Rule2241 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst’s account.Analysts regularly conduct site visits to view the material operations of covered companies, but Barclays policy prohibits them from accepting paymentor reimbursement by any covered company of their travel expenses for such visits.Barclays Research Department produces various types of research including, but not limited to, fundamental analysis, equity-linked analysis,quantitative analysis, and trade ideas. Recommendations contained in one type of Barclays Research maydifferfrom those contained in other types ofBarclays Research, whether as a result ofdifferingtime horizons, methodologies, or otherwise.In order to access Barclays Statement regarding Research Dissemination Policies and Procedures, please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com/S/RD.htm. In order to access Barclays Research Conflict Management Policy Statement, please refer to: https://publicresearch.barclays.com/S/CM.htm.Primary Stocks (Ticker, Date, Price)Sanlam Ltd(SLMJ.J, 14-May-2025, ZAR 87.07), Equal Weight/Positive, J/K/M/NMaterially Mentioned Stocks (Ticker, Date, Price)Allianz SE(ALVG.DE, 14-May-2025, EUR 351.90), Equal Weight/Positive, A/CD/D/E/J/K/L