4月预订量疲软高峰期邮轮价格坚挺

Restricted - External U.S. Gaming, Leisure & LodgingPOSITIVEU.S. Gaming, Leisure & LodgingBrandt Montour, CFA+1 212 526 9947brandt.montour@barclays.comBCI, USElizabethHeffern+1 212 526 3592elizabeth.heffern@barclays.comBCI, USInvestment SciencesJoy Zhu(v)+ 1 212 526 0927joy.zhu@barclays.comBCI, US Brands Included: Carnival, Royal Caribbean, Norwegian. Average Per Diem TicketPrices, Voyages Sailing in 4Q25 vs. 4Q24 (compared to the same point in time in theprior year's booking cycle)Source: Barclays Investment SciencesFor summer 2025, which is pretty baked at this point, April pricing for higher-end brands inboth Europe and Alaska maintained double-digit premiums to last year, +11%/12% respectively,although pulled back slightly vs. March (-2%/-3% m/m).By brand, in Europe, Celebrity/Princess/Holland America were +1%/-11%/+3% m/m in April and -9%/-6%/+18% y/y. InAlaska,Celebrity/Princess/Holland America prices were -4%/-4%/flat m/m and +6%/+16%/+8% y/y.Onthe Contemporary side,price movement was mixed, ticking up 2% m/m in Europe whiledeclining 2% in Alaska, and prices now sit +13%/-4% y/y.By brand, inEurope, Royal/Norwegianprices were +14%/-3% m/m in April and +13%/+13% y/y, surprising, in our view, that NCL Europeprices didn’t come down further, given the notable weakness management called out in thismarket on its last earnings call. InAlaska, Royal/Norwegian were -5%/-4% m/m and +14%/-9%y/y.15 May 2025 2 Brands Included: Celebrity, Princess, Holland America. Average Per Diem TicketPrices, Voyages Sailing in 3Q25 vs. 3Q24 (compared to the same point in time in theprior year's booking cycle)Source: Barclays Investment SciencesFIGURE 5. 3Q25 Europe Contemporary Brands +2% m/m18%10%6%0%-1%1%6%10%15%14%18%14%12%13%$200$220$240$260$280$300$320Per Diem (% y/y)2025Q32024Q3Brands Included: Carnival, Royal Caribbean, Norwegian. Average Per Diem TicketPrices, Voyages Sailing in 3Q25 vs. 3Q24 (compared to the same point in time in theprior year's booking cycle)Source: Barclays Investment SciencesCruise vs. land– the relative value gap of Cruise vs. land-based vacations remains wide,especially vs. Caribbean land-based.The Cruise industry's relative strength/resilience indemand has primarily been driven, in our view, by a combination of thestill significantdiscount to land-based vacationscoupled with the comparatively elevated service levelsCruiseoffers.We believe the best way to track this is most-recently reported Net Revenue perDiems (Cruise) vs. Caribbean and U.S. resort hotel prices.As of the 1Q, on a weighted-averagebasis, the big three Cruise operators reported Net Revenue Per Diems 22% above 2019,whereas STR saw Caribbean hotel room prices 54% ahead and U.S. resorts 36% ahead.Webelieve this meaningful Cruise discount should act as a cushion to any broadersofteninginconsumer spend given that unemployment remains relatively low, and U.S. consumers stillwant to vacation and will be looking for a deal.15 May 2025 3 Source: STR, Company Reports, Barclays ResearchHow we think about this data.We focus more on m/m changes instead of y/y changes forassessing near-term stability and/or directionalshifts.Ultimately, to get a rough sense on themagnitude of y/y pricing growth for any given quarter, we focus on thecumulativedifferencebetween this year's pricing curve and last year's pricing curve, instead of the latest data point(since bookings are taken over time). The caveats to this data, at a high level, include that ourweb scraper only grabs the headline price from the OTA for each itinerary (i.e. "X itinerarystarting at$Y price");in other words it is capturing the price of thelowest qualitybalconycabin inventory for any given sailing/itinerary, which we would expect to overlay a negative biason our data set throughout time.Other caveats include:OTAs represent a lower qualitydistribution channel for cruise operators in general, web-scraped prices have historically beenmore volatile than reported results, OTA headline/advertised prices are not the same as bookedprices, and revenue management strategies have been evolving within the industry, whereby asoperators become more sophisticated in pre-selling onboard amenities and bundling, they canaffordto give better deals on the ticket portion of the booking.For more details on our webscraping and analysis process, please see section titled "Notes onData Methodology". 4 CaribbeanVoyages Sailing in 3Q25 vs. 3Q24FIGURE 8. Contemporary Brands: Caribbean 3Q25 (-2% m/m)Brands Included: Carnival, Royal Caribbean, Norwegian. Average Per Diem TicketPrices, Voyages Sailing in 3Q25 vs. 3Q24 (compared to the same point in time in theprior year's booking cycle)Source: Barclays Investment SciencesFIGURE 10. Carnival: Caribbean 3Q25 Voyages (+1% m/m)13%17%19%17%17%$100$120$140$160$180$200$220$240$260Per Diem (% y/y)Average Per Diem Ticket Prices, Voyages Sailing in 3Q25 vs. 3Q24 (compared to thesame point in time in the prior year's booking cycle)Source: Barclays Investment Sciences15