TAG房地产公司2025年第一季度业绩符合预期；波兰销售疲软

Stephanie Dossmann * | Equity Analyst+33 1 8665 6367 | sdossmann@jefferies.comPierre-Emmanuel Clouard, CFA * | EquityAnalyst+33 1 8665 6373 | pclouard@jefferies.comStephane Afonso * | Equity Analyst+33 1 8665 6327 | safonso@jefferies.com Company DescriptionTAG ImmobilienTAG specializes in residential real estate with a portfolio value of €5.7bn, largely concentrated in Germany (95%) and, to a lesser extent, Poland(5%). The company increased its exposure the Polish residential real estate market after completing the acquisition of ROBYG in 2022. The Germanresidential portfolio mainly includes 85k residential units and a minor portion of commercial units, with a combined rentable area of 5.1m sqm. TAGinvests primarily in medium-size towns and in the vicinity of large metropolises. The newly acquired portfolios usually have higher vacancies. Berlinrepresents 15% of the German portfolio, followed by Leipzig at 14%.Company Valuation/RisksTAG ImmobilienOur price target is a blended average of three valuation methodologies: a DCF calculating a terminal value by using an exit yield in year 10 (WACC6.8%, Beta 1.3, CoE 11.8%, Exit yield 4.5%), a DDM assuming a terminal value equal to NAV 10 years out, and an Adjusted NAV.Downside risks: Higher-than-expected CPI figures leading to higher LT rates, yield expansion, credit downgrade, new regulation in Germany.Analyst Certification:I, Stephanie Dossmann, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or viewsexpressed in this research report.I, Pierre-Emmanuel Clouard, CFA, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies)and subject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations orviews expressed in this research report.I, Stephane Afonso, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report.Registration of non-US analysts:Stephanie Dossmann is employed by Jefferies GmbH, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/qualified as aresearch analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore may not be subject to theFINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst.Registration of non-US analysts:Pierre-Emmanuel Clouard, CFA is employed by Jefferies GmbH, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore may notbe subject to the FINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a researchanalyst.Registration of non-US analysts:Stephane Afonso is employed by Jefferies GmbH, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/qualified as aresearch analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore may not be subject to theFINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst.As is the case with all Jefferies employees, the analyst(s) responsible for the coverage of the financial instruments discussed in this report receivescompensation based in part on the overall performance of the firm, including investment banking income. We seek to update our research as appropriate, butvarious regulations may prevent us from doing so. Aside from certain industry reports published on a periodic basis, the large majority of reports are publishedat irregular intervals as appropriate in the analyst's judgement.Investment Recommendation Record(Article 3(1)e and Article 7 of MAR)Recommendation PublishedRecommendation DistributedExplanation of Jefferies RatingsBuy - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of 15% or more within a 12-month period.Hold - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of plus 15% or minus 10% within a 12-month period.Underperform - Describes securities that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of minus 10% or less within a 12-month period.Please see important disclosure information