本的季度新鲜肥料发现

Ben's Quarterly Fresh Fertilizer In this quarterly update, we break down potential impactsfrom the confirmed Chinese export window alongside Indianfertilizer needs,tariffimpacts, 2H potash pricing, and trendsthat shape our volume outlook. We include global Americas AgribusinessNEUTRAL Americas Agribusiness Benjamin M. Theurer+52 55 5241 3322benjamin.theurer@barclays.comBCCB, Mexico Rahi Parikh+1 212 526 0150rahi.parikh@barclays.com We published our 1Q25 post-earnings update last week - Americas Agribusiness: Making way for awarmer 2Q, 14 May 2025 – where we refreshed our models for our covered names (CF, CTVA, FMC,LVRO, MOS, & NTR) and outlined themes/outlooks discussed this season. Additionally, we delayedthis quarterly report by a few days due to the publishing schedule from our data sources. Ryan Lavin+1 212 526 8713ryan.lavin1@barclays.com Key Developments •Fertilizer prices are 3% lower 2WoWcompared to our last update (was +4%) whilefertilizeraffordabilityis down 2%on a MTD basis (was -9%). Fertilizeraffordabilityis at an abnormallow; thedifferencebetween the relative value of key crops (corn, wheat, rice, soy) andfertilizer prices (urea, DAP, MOP) in Q1 has only been worse on three occasions since S&P'sanalysis commenced in 2010. Moreover, we added a fulltariffbreakdown for each fertilizer at Reid Monahan+1 212 526 7506reid.monahan@barclays.com News Updates:Officialreports came out post a May 15th meeting confirming that the Chinese CIQ process will be ineffectfrom May to September, with the last customsclearance on Oct 15.Chinese suppliers are expected to begin applying for custominspections by mid-May, with shipments anticipated to start in June.A “self-discipline”export quota of 2 million mt was set,with potential extensions depending on the •Natural Gasprices on Friday settled at ~$11.40/MMBtu in NL and ~$3.20/MMBtu in theUS,rising 6%and4%2WoW, respectively. From 1Q earnings, we highlight that NTR expectedto see Henry Hub pricing at $3.25-$3.50 to start the year but has since increased its outlookthis quarter to $3.25-$4.00, given increased volatility and higher gas prices. As of May 1, S&P is Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts basedoutside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 21.Completed: 16-May-25, 22:06 GMTReleased: 19-May-25, 04:10 GMT MMBtu (0.3%) increase in 2027 to $5.83/MMBtu. For the EU, the platform models 2025 TTFprices of US$14.66/MMBtu (+35% YoY). The annual average price in 2026 is forecast to fall by$2/MMBtu and then again in 2027 to just under $9.00/MMBtu. See Figures 3 - 4. Commodity Prices: Corn prices fall 4% while wheat showed no change, both 2WoW,compared to -4% and -6% 2WoW in our last update, respectively. See Figures 5 - 6. Ammonia:Average prices fall 2% 2WoW(same as in our previous update), and dropto ~$360/mt. Prices in the US Gulf/Tampa (cfr) are down 5% 2WoW to settle around ~$420/mt.CFR Northwest Europe (duty paid/duty free) dropped 3% 2WoW and moves to ~$450/mt.Natural gas prices in Europe (~$11.40/MMBtu, €35.20/MWh) imply a total cost per tonne ofammonia around $460 including carbon costs (vs ~$430 in our previous report). See Figures 7- 10.Mid East priceslifted~10% WoWon the high-end of cited purchases to $310/mt FOB,with ideas that this represented a local price rebound due to rising demand from India andplanned maintenance at Ma’aden. Not all players were convinced, according to S&P, as theyexpounded that Indian demand was still limited and that East Asian interest remained very Quarterly outlook update:At an industry event in Monaco on May 12th,S&P sources noted discussions that the global market had stabilized,with a potential floor in Europeof $450/mt CFR duty paid/duty free; for the Middle East, chatter revolved around $310/mtFOB as a reflective level for spot, according to a supplier at the event, though somewhatbuoyed from Ma'aden's maintenance and growing demand from India.However, the nextday, an S&P source indicatedoffersin NW Europe to be below $440/mt CFR duty paid/duty free and below $310/mt FOB in the Mid East.The Mediterranean region wasassessed unchanged at $395/mt CFR Turkey. Furthermore, the Far East is expected topersist in its sluggish downstream state (spot $330/mt CFR May 13), with sentiment asstable to weaker given low demand levels. In the last update, the East started sendingsome shipments West to alleviate some excess tons in SE Asia – aligning with thisquarterly's update. China is said to be still sitting on ample domestic supply, though tonsshould start to move as its u