美国化工股配对、轮动与资金流向资金流入尚可，市场情绪消极

Laurence Alexander * | Equity Analyst(212) 284-2553 | lalexander@jefferies.comKevin Estok * | Equity Associate(212) 778-8516 | kestok@jefferies.comDaniel Rizzo * | Equity Analyst(212) 336-6284 | drizzo@jefferies.comXianrao Zhu * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8742 | xzhu@jefferies.comCarol Jiang * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 284-1714 | cjiang@jefferies.com Chart 2 - US Large Cap Chemicals Relative Momentum In NTM P/E.Source: Factset, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 8 - 13 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Chart 4 - US SMID Cap Chemicals Relative Momentum In Share Prices.Source: Factset, JefferiesChart 5 - US SMID Cap Chemicals Relative Momentum In NTM P/E.Source: Factset, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 8 - 13 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Chart 6 - Momentum Flags When The Relative Pair Is In A Consistent Cycle.Candy Cane-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%Source: Jefferies EstimatesTroughing•Oversold (OS) = RSI < 30 & relative price or NTM P/E >1 std. deviation below average•Fish Hook (FH) = At least 2% above the recent trough and both the MoM & 3-month averageof the MoM are >0%•Turned The Corner (TTC) = YoY is <0, up QoQ, & >1/2 of the worst YoY comparison•Breaking Higher (BH) = 50-day>200-day after being <200-day for at least 60 daysPeaking•Overbought (OB) = RSI > 70 & relative price or NTM P/E >1 std. deviation above average•Candy Cane (CC) = At least 2% below the recent peak and both the MoM & 3-month averageof the MoM are <0%•Rolled Over (RO) = YoY is >0, down QoQ and <1/2 of the best YoY comparison•Breaking Down (BD) = 50-day<200-day after being >200-day for at least 60 daysPlease see important disclosure information on pages 8 - 13 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Chart 7 - Framing The Cycle: Stock Runs vs. Direction Of Earnings Revisions.YoYMoM---++++-Earnings Momentum: NTM EPS RevisionsSource: Factset, Company DataChart 8 - Industrials ETFs Flows.Source: Factset, JefferiesChart 9 - Energy ETF Flows.Source: Factset, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 8 - 13 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Chart 10 - Materials ETFs Flows.Source: Factset, JefferiesChart 11 - Chemicals ETFs Flows.Source: Factset, JefferiesChart 12 - Rare Earths ETFs Flows.Source: Factset, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 8 - 13 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Chart 13 - Lithium Battery & Materials ETFs Flows.Source: Factset, JefferiesChart 14 - Latest Rolling 20D Flows, % of Standard Deviation Vs. 3-Month Average.Energy-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%-80%-60%Rolling 20D Flow as a % of St Dev (3-Mo Avg)Source: Factset, JefferiesChart 15 - Latest Rolling 20D Flows, % of Standard Deviation Vs. 5-Day Average.Energy-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%-80%-60%Rolling 20D Flow as a % of St Dev(5D Avg)Source: Factset, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 8 - 13 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Company Valuation/RisksFor Important Disclosure information on companies recommended in this report, please visit our website at https://javatar.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action or call 212.284.2300.Analyst Certification:I, Laurence Alexander, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or viewsexpressed in this research report.I, Kevin Estok, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report.I, Daniel Rizzo, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report.I, Xianrao Zhu, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views exp