第一季度后下调油价假设并更新预测

Giacomo Romeo * | Equity Analyst44 (0) 20 7548 4727 | giacomo.romeo@jefferies.comKai Ye Loh, ACA, CFA * | Equity Associate+44 (0)20 7029 8278 (office) | kloh@jefferies.com Change in leverage (ND/Equity) at JEFe price deck.0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%EQNRSource: Jefferies estimates, Company data, BloombergNote: Net debt includes leases, hybrid and perpetual instruments. Equity excludes hybrid andperpetual instruments. We include only the impact from announced divestments.2025 CFFO distribution at strip prices (% of CFFO).-20%30%80%130%180%ENIGALPNet CAPEXSource: Jefferies estimates, company dataPlease see important disclosure information on pages 49 - 50 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. BPSHELREPARAMCOOMVTTEEQNROthersDividendBuybackCFFO Summary of ChangesCompanyShellSHEL LNPreviousBP plcBP/ LNTotalEnergiesTTE FPPreviousGalp EnergiaGALP PLPreviousShellSHELPreviousOMV AGOMV AVPreviousBP plcBPNeste OyjNESTE FHPreviousEni SpaENI IMPreviousSaudi AramcoARAMCO ABPrevious^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise noted.Cons. EPS: Source: Visible AlphaProduction: BP production in kboe/dPlease see important disclosure information on pages 49 - 50 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. RatingPrice^BUY£24.73HOLD£3.68HOLD€52.86BUY€14.07BUY$67.39BUY€47.50HOLD$30.11BUY€9.30BUY€13.32BUYSAR26.15 Sector macro sensitivities and oil supply / demand balancesExhibit 1 - Share price beta to the oil price (LTM returns).0.710.560.56Source: Jefferies estimates, FactSetExhibit 2 - CFFO sensitivity to $1 change in oil price.1.4%1.0%ENISHELGALPSource: Company data, Jefferies estimatesExhibit 3 - CFFO sensitivity to $1 change in European gas price.2.5%1.2%EQNROMVSource: Company data, Jefferies estimatesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 49 - 50 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. 0.520.520.510.490.480.480.470.401.0%1.0%0.8%0.8%0.7%0.5%TTEEQNR OMVBPREP0.8%0.7%0.2%0.2%0.1%0.0%ENITTEBPSHELREPGALP Exhibit 4 - JEFe Latest Global Oil Supply & Demand.20202021OECD Demand42.144.4Americas22.524.0Europe12.413.1Non-OECD Demand49.853.0China14.315.1India4.64.9Other Asia8.48.5Total Demand92.097.4US16.616.7Norway2.02.0Russia10.610.9Brazil3.03.0Non-OPEC Supply64.464.8Non-OPEC+ Supply49.449.7OPEC Crude24.425.2Saudi Arabia9.29.1UAE2.92.7Iran2.02.4OPEC NGLs5.25.3OPEC Supply29.730.5OPEC+ Supply44.645.8Total Supply94.195.5Stock Change2.1(1.9)o/w SPR0.20.1o/w Commercial1.9(2.0)Implied Call on OPEC+42.647.9Source: Jefferies estimates, Energy Aspects, IEA, EIA, WoodMackenzieNote: in our balances we assume OPEC+ will continue with the current accelerated unwind of the 2.2mmb/d cut (411kb/d increases per monthuntil September).Please see important disclosure information on pages 49 - 50 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. 1Q Results Review1Q Beats.In 1Q, the IOCs beat consensus earnings expectations by 4% on average (based onBloomberg EPS), from a 1% average beat in 4Q. Relative to company-provided NI consensus,European companies also beat consensus by 4% on average while CFFO (pre-WC) missedexpectations by 2%. ENI and SHEL reported the largest earnings beats (23% and 12%) whileREP and OMV reported the largest CFFO beats (16% and 9%). OMV, BP, and EQNR missedconsensus estimates on Net Income; GALP, TTE and BP on CFFO. The drivers of beat / missacross companies are mixed; while there is a general beat across companies on Upstream, BP,GALP and OMV missed. Following 1Q results, FY25 European IOCs' earnings have decreased by~3% on average, with BP and OMV experiencing the largest downgrades (~10% and ~6%).Capital flexibility in focus.In 1Q, most companies maintained their FY25 guidance largelyunchanged, following the wave of capex rationalisation and divestment targets set in 4Q (LINK).However, BP further lowered its capex target to $14.5bn in '25 (from $15bn); and updated itsdivestments target to $3-4bn (from ~$3bn) (LINK). Eni also reduced its gross / net capex tobelow €8.5bn / €6.0bn (from €9.0bn / €6.5-7.0bn), while introducing a €2bn cash saving initiative(LINK). Capex flexibility has emerged as a key theme across the sector: BP outlined $2.5bn capexflexibility if needed (LINK); GALP indicated 10-20% flexibility in capex (LINK); TTE plans to enactcapex flexibility if oil prices move below $50/bbl and described a ~$2bn reduction as "not socomplex" to achieve (LINK); REP highlighted a stress scenario and lowered the mid-point of its netcapex by €0.5bn (with ~€0.5bn capex flexibility), and SHEL emphasised a maintenance capexlevel of $18bn, with $1-2bn of inorganic spending considered as optional (LINK).First View and Flash Notes for 1Q ResultsSaudi Aramco (ARAMCO AB, Buy, SAR31 PT). 1Q Results: Small BeatBP (BP LN, Hold, £3.9 PT). BP off the Cal