EVC对AEMO 2024年预测假设更新草案的回应

February 2024 With reference to:AEMO | 2024 Forecas�ng Assump�ons Update Consulta�on Prepared by: Michael Shaughnessy, Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Officer With contribution from:Ross De Rango, Head of Energy and Infrastructure Preamble The Electric Vehicle Council (EVC) is the national body representing the electric vehicleindustry in Australia. As the market is emerging in Australia, our work is particularly aimed atincreasing certainty for investment through policy, knowledge sharing and education. The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) started producing Integrated System Plans(ISPs) on a two-yearly basis in 2018 and the Forecasting assumptions update (FAU) feedsinto that. The ISP is a ‘whole of system plan’ that offers a roadmap for development ineastern Australia’s electricity system. Our previous submission to the Inputs, Assumptions and Scenarios report (IASR) can befound here. EVC submission to AEMO IASR-Electric Vehicle Council Introduction The EVC understands that developing the ISP and it’s IASR are extended pieces of work.Some of the industries it concerns are moving at such a rate that the inputs and assumptionfor the 2 years prior are no longer serving by the time the ISP is finally published. Therefore,it is important to update the inputs and assumptions wherever possible, as closely topublication as possible and use actual data when it is in hand. EV uptake Underlying consumption in the NEM is forecast to be about 200TWh in 2030. The Draft2024 FAU Detailed EV workbook1states about 7TWh of this will be from EVs under the stepchange scenario. A 3.5% increase in required generation for EVs alone over the next 6years is a not insignificant feat to try to achieve, and therefore requires careful considerationto ensure it’s accurate. The FAU EV workbook appears to be forecasting about 3.9 million EVs to be on the road by2030-31 for the NEM in the step change scenario, up 200,000 from the already unlikelyfigure forecast in the 2023 ISP EV workbook. EV sales nationally were around 33,400 in2022 and 87,400 in 2023 for a total of around 180,000 on road by year end 2024. Theassumptions employed appear to be that EV uptake will emulate solar uptake in Australia,which proved very difficult to forecast accurately. This caused problems for AEMO throughunderestimates of new generation not allowing for proper network planning. Solar uptakeproceeded in Australia at such a rate off the back of heavily subsidised PV modules from thelarge- and small-scale renewable energy target schemes (up to 100% of the wholesale costof the modules) and China’s government subsidising manufacturers of PV modules andinverters. Compounded with increasing costs of electricity, gas and electricity price volatility,state based solar rebates, the collapse of poly-silicon prices and strong solar resources inAustralia, growth has been at times exponential.2 The concern appears to be that the same problems could arise around EV uptake. EVs donot enjoy the same level of support (Qld, SA, Tas, WA have rebates up to 5% of thepurchase price), and it can reasonably be assumed they will continue not to have the samelevel of support – state government programs in Victoria and NSW to subsidise purchasehave been wound back, rather than extended. Assuming option B in the proposed NVES3is effectively implemented, EVs at the moreaffordable end of the market are not predicted to reach price parity with fossil fuel cars until2028, though there may be some price wars yet to play out, pushing parity further into thefuture.4 EV uptake is currently exponential, but we expect it to taper as an S-curve. If in addition to the effective implementation of the NVES at federal level, we assume thatannounced state government electric vehicle uptake targets are met, there may be up to 2.5million EVs on the nation's roads by the end of 2030. This is our upper bound case. If weassumed incomplete success of these measures in bringing about EV uptake (for example,large auto OEMs meeting the requirements in the NVES by increasing the supply of mild-hybrid vehicles to Australia, rather than battery electric vehicles), we would expect around1.5 million EVs on road in Australia at the end of 2030, with approximately 1.35 million in theNEM. This is our central case today, subject to change as the details of the NVES areimplemented. EV sales to date nationally align with the midpoint between the ‘no intervention’ and‘moderate intervention’ scenarios in the ARENA5report. The most populous states inAustralia (NSW, QLD, VIC, SA) all have EV uptake targets of 50% by 2030. The marks onthe graph show when that target would have to be met in order to meet the projected total by2030. As can be seen, for the AEMO step change scenario case to occur, 50% EV saleswould have to be met in 2-3 years’ time, 3-4 years ahead of state government targets. We donot see a credible pathway to 3.9 million EVs in the NEM 2030-31. Whilst PHEVs have smaller batteries than