西门子能源：2025年第一季度回顾-是否仍有卖出理由？

25E16.81.415 May 202576.72/22.061,401.3960,39655,6536M61.615.446.108/2405/2511501200125013001350140014501500 RatingUnderperformPrice TargetENR.GRReported EPSF24AENR.GR (EUR)1.37OLD--Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.We remain convinced ENR’s share price is materially too high, despite raising our estimates.We are incrementally more positive.We correct our over-caution on Gas Services,materially increasing revenue and margin. We increase Grid Tech margin. On Gamesa, dueto the reduction in disclosure we move closer to guidance and increase revenue and margin,albeit we remain highly negative. Net, with the exception of Gamesa we are now ahead ofguidance for FY25 and within guidance out to FY28. The result is we materially increaseour 24m-fwd EBITDA, push back (again) the working capital reversal, and include a tokendividend. This allows us to take up valuation to 0.7x MSCI Europe (ex-0.6x), and increase TPto EUR 37. Please see Exhibit 2 for details.Is there still a sell case? Yes.Did we get the stock plain wrong, or were we just wrong atthe wrong time? Mindful of a strong case for the former, we nonetheless hold to the latterand see four reasons to sell:(1) Buy the boom, sell the intake inflexion.We see in ENR’srecord order intake a rush to place orders, fuelled by an AI infrastructure race rather than astructural mid-term change in demand. If true, order intake likely to peak in FY25. We seeFY26 intake ~20% below FY23-4 avg.(2) Wind business remains a heavy millstone.Mgt has removed almost all disclosure on wind, no longer giving revenue, prices, MWs ordeliveries across the onshore, offshore and service businesses. Yet the struggle is the same:for 1H’25, -8% EBITDA margin, EUR (0.9bn) FCF, and 65% B2B. Few investors realiseGamesa’s operational problems continued to worsen in FY24 - contrary to the idea legacyproblems ‘were getting no worse”, we calculate Gamesa took an additionalEUR 1.0bnexcess provision in FY24, on top of the EUR 2.4bn ‘disaster’ excess provision in FY23 (Exhibit3). Net, we see breakeven in FY28, vs mgt guidance at FY26.(3) Working capital reversalahead.1H’25 saw another EUR 1.8bn working capital inflow, now a (truly astonishing) EUR8.5bn cash inflow since YE19. Days sales stand at -81, from -69 at YE24 (and vs -62 YE23,-44 YE22 and -21 FY19-21). A return to -30 days by FY28, per our model, is EUR 3.4bn cashoutflow. Due to the magnitude of this reversal (plus Siemens India purchase), any dividendis likely to be short lived, the balance sheet is not as cash rich as it appears, and valuationis artificially subdued.(4) Fair valuation is ~33% de-rating.Through-cycle multiple ischallenging, but i) it is likely to be much lower than boom-time (currently 9.5x fwd EBITDA); ii)should reflect sales growth, where ENR does well (~9% F5Yr CAGR); and iii) but also shouldreflect dividend payout and ROIC, where ENR does poorly (amongst the lowest in the sector).See the Disclosure Appendix of this report for required disclosures, analyst certifications and otherimportant information. Alternatively, visit our Global Research Disclosure Website.First Published: 19 May 2025 05:00 UTC Completion Date: 16 May 2025 20:07 UTC 75.5437.00(51)%200.1192.5 37.00 EUR(22.00OLD)F26E2.301.21FinancialsRevenues (M)EBITDA (M) CAGR10.9%71.2%Close DateEDMFYEDiv YieldEV (EUR) (M)PerformanceAbsolute (%)EDM (%)Relative (%)€80€70€60€50€40€3005/24 F25E1.070.17F24AF25EF26E34,46539,05342,3571,4593,3214,274 DETAILSInvestment ImplicationsWe maintain our Underperform rating. Our target price downside is a) fwd EBITDA 16% below consensus; b) valuation multiple~33% below current trading; c) EUR (3.2)bn cash adjustment; and d) 8% higher share count.Key Notes - UPDATESIEMENS ENERGY Financial ModelEuropean hydrogen: Siemens Energy's tech gains 'market share' (18 February 2025)Siemens Energy: The India Put - modelling the implications (15 July 2024)Siemens Energy: Ouch... The true cost of the India Put (04 June 2024)Siemens Energy: Three contradictions... Reiterate sell case (20 May 2024)Siemens Energy: Trump vs US offshore wind... 2 points (14 May 2024)EU Capital Goods: Introducing Machinery & Industrial Tech, and initiating on Kone, Schindler & Alstom (9 April 2024)Siemens Energy: What is left unsaid... takeaways from the CMD (22 November 2023)Siemens Energy: A new beginning?... CMD preview & tearsheet (20 November 2023)Siemens Energy: Cash flow... Does Gas & Power make any? (17 November 2023)Siemens: The heavy hand of German realpolitik...? Two trades (6 November 2023)Siemens Energy: It ain't over till it's over... Thoughts on the latest crash (26 October 2023)Siemens Energy: Between a rock and a hard place (3 August 2023)Siemens Energy: Turbinegeddon... Facts (and hypothesis) so far (10 July 2023)Wind OEMs: Turbinegeddon?... A bear vs bull debate in one page (30 June 2023)Siemens Energy: Component failure... 3 troubling thoughts (23 June 2023)Hydrogen Highway 2023: Capital Goods... The six essential bits of kit (30 M