海科公司（HEI）长期展望：第二财季预览预计FSG将再次闪耀

2025E2026E2027E4,364.04,583.14,788.49.4x8.9x8.5x8.9x8.4x8.1x4,298.04,604.04,911.0 Sheila Kahyaoglu * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 336-7216 | sheila.kahyaoglu@jefferies.comEllen Page * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 323-3381 | epage@jefferies.comConor Walters * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 323-3395 | cwalters@jefferies.com The Long View: Heico CorporationInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferBuy rating based on 1) upside to commercial aftermarket (58% of PF sales),due to an expanding addressable fleet of aircraft in FY25 with DD organicgrowth once more in FY25 at FSG; 2) improving defense spending backdropsupports a return to growth at ETG; 3) Net leverage of 2X with a return to>100% FCF generation to support further M&A runway.Base Case,$320, +16%•Revenues grow 10% organically in FY25 (12%total) and 5% in FY26 due to a recovery incommercial aero.•Aftermarket grows 12% organically in FY25and 5% in FY26 with no further acquisitioncontribution assumed. ETG +4% in FY26E.•FY26 Margins of 22.2%, up 80 bps from 21.4%in FY24.•PT of $320: 1) 37.0x FY26E EV/EBITDA (17-% premium vs 3-yr average 133% premium toS&P); 2) 61.1x FY26E P/E (210% premium vs 3-yr average 171% premium to S&P); and 3) 1.8%FY26E FCF yield (145% premium vs 3-yr 98%premium to S&P).Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s): 1)Employee Engagement, Diversity & Inclusion -Heico is a family-ownedbusiness that is committed to expanding diversity across the firm, noting that more than half ofthe company's team members belong to ethnic/racial minority groups. Heico has the longest-tenuredmanagement team across our coverage, at 26.3 years, on average, and the longest-tenured board ofdirectors, at 20.4 years, on average.Company Target(s): 1)The company has not provided ESG targets.2)The Environmental, Safety andHealth Committee of the board of directors oversees compliance with federal and state regulations, withmost facilities designated Small Quantity Generators or Very Small Quantity Generators in terms of thelocal environmental impact.Qs to Mgmt: 1)Do you intend to quantify HEI’s environmental footprint and diversity metrics, and are youexploring setting defined goals across sustainability, diversity, and governance?The Five ESG Issues Investors Should Look At When Investing in A&DPlease see important disclosure information on pages 22 - 27 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,$350, +27%•Revenues grow 18% in FY26, supported bythecommercial AM recovery closer to the32% expected addressable fleet expansion andnew product penetration. ETG +6% w/both endmarkets stronger.•Additional acquisitions add to top-and bottom-line growth.•Operating margins of 23.0%incl Wencormargins at legacy FSG levels and expansiontoward historical ETG rates.•PT $350: 2026 EPS: $4.95.•Target Multiple: 67x P/E (220% premium vs. 3-yr average 171% premium to S&P). Downside Scenario,$190, -31%•Volumes flat in FY26 due to aftermarketweaknessand ETG declines as Defense&Space face delays and Other Electronics isaffected by weaker macro.•Operating margins to 20.3%on mix andinefficiencies at ETG.•Margins trend lower due to lower volumecontribution,potentially dilutive acquisitions,and unfavorable mix.•Recent acquisitions fail to achieve targets.•PT $190: 2026 EPS: $3.45; Target Multiple:55.7x(150%prem to S&P vs 3-yr average171%).Catalysts•Accretive acquisitions boost margins andbottom line.•Evidence of revenue synergies from Wencorintegration.•PMA share gains and continued recovery inaftermarket sales with support from expandingaddressable fleet.•Evidence of PMA sales to the DOD.•New production introductions drive businesswins•Reacceleration of growth in Other Electronics 2 Investment ConsiderationsIn this note, we look at the following:•1) Expect FQ2 Revenue Up 12% (8% Organic) with EPS at $1.01 vs Cons $1.03•2) Upside to FSG in FY25 Supported by Expanding Addressable Fleet and Wencor Synergies•a) FSG Sales Outpacing Air Traffic with PMA Share Gains and Aging Fleet•3) ETG Expected Up LSD with Likely Hesitancy in Other Electronics•4) FCF Generation Expected Near 5-Year Average at 117% Conversion to NI•5) Price Target and Valuation1) Expect FQ2 Revenue Up 12% (8% Organic) with EPSat $1.01 vs Cons $1.03We estimate FQ2 (Apr Q) sales to grow 12% y-o-y to $1.07BB, roughly in line with cons of $1.06BBon 2% organic growth at ETG (6% total) as Space remains lumpy and Other Electronics faces tariffrelated demand hesitation, offset by FSG up 11% organic (14% total, cons +13%) given ongoingcommercial aftermarket momentum.From a profitability perspective, we assume a 23.2% margin for the quarter at FSG, up 20 bps y-o-y(-10 bps sequentially) with operating leverage. As an offset, we assume 60 bps of margin contractionat ETG off a tough comp from 23.6% a year ago to 23.0% given overhead cost on Other Electronicsand less favorable Space mix.This leaves overall HEI margins at 21.9% for the quarter and drives EPS of $1.01 vs $