艺康集团（ECL）：新产品将支撑定价顺风

2025E2026E-15,961.016,582.0-3,818.04,136.0-7.498.4416,081.016,943.0 2027E17,386.04,530.09.7317,787.0 Laurence Alexander * | Equity Analyst(212) 284-2553 | lalexander@jefferies.comDaniel Rizzo * | Equity Analyst(212) 336-6284 | drizzo@jefferies.comKevin Estok * | Equity Associate(212) 778-8516 | kestok@jefferies.comCarol Jiang * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 284-1714 | cjiang@jefferies.comXianrao Zhu * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8742 | xzhu@jefferies.com The Long View: EcolabInvestment Thesis / Where We Differ•We expect Ecolab to drive top-line growth through penetration in emergingmarkets and market share gains in core geographies•Cost savings will help mitigate regional headwinds•Ecolab should offset raw material inflation through disciplined pricingactions•Effective use of cash for M&ABase Case,$310, +19%•Europe and Asian demand trends recover•Sluggish macro environment in North America•Long-term core EPS growth of 11-15%,supplemented by rapid growth in the digitalplatform and related adjacencies•ESG premium equivalent to 3x EBITDA or 6x netincome•2026E EPS: $8.75, Target Multiple: 35.4x; PriceTarget $310Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s):1) Water & Wastewater Managementhas been a core competitive advantage ofEcolab’s since the 1930s, reinforced by the Nalco acquisition.2) Energy Management.Ecolab’s servicemodel effectively transmits best practices in highly fragmented markets.3) Business Model Resilience.Risk is mitigated by focusing on capital-light B2B services that leverage proprietary chemistries toaddress high-hassle tertiary problems that are brand-critical.Company Target(s):1)100% renewable energy by 2030, halve carbon emissions by 2030 and achievenet-zero carbon emissions by 2050.2)Reduce water impact by 40% per unit production from 2018.3)Increase management-level gender diversity to 35% with the ultimate goal of gender parity.4)Increasemanagement-level ethnic/racial diversity to 25%.Qs for Mgmt.: 1)How have sustainability initiatives affected your ability to capture value for deliveringprocess and labor efficiency?2)How is digitalization transforming the growth algorithm and improvingthe efficiency of human capital?ESG Sector Deep Dive: ChemicalsPlease see important disclosure information on pages 4 - 9 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,$380, +45%•Robust demand environment from recovery inkey end-markets leads to 100-200bps fasterorganic sales growth, adding $0.25 to EPS•Acquisitions add $0.10-$0.15 to EPS•Market focuses on chance for structuralacceleration: each 100bps increase in long-term sales growth adds ~$41/share•Shares trade in line with long-term average peakrelative multiples•2026E EPS: $10.00; Target Multiple: 38x; PriceTarget: $380 Downside Scenario,$140, -46%•Weak cycle with -1-2% GDP growth•Margins compress due to raw materialpressure; European margins continue to lag;Noincremental benefit from acquisitions;European transformation is muted•Shares trade in line with long-term averagetrough multiples•2026E EPS:$7;Target Multiple:20x;PriceTarget: $140Catalysts•Recovery in the restaurant and food & beverageend-markets: ~55% of sales•Margin expansion in Europe;pricing>rawmaterial inflation•Continued commercialization of premiumproducts; i.e., APEX•Bolt-on M&A in healthcare, water, energy, waste,and pest elimination•Recovery(pricing)in energy-related end-markets 2 Exhibit 1 - ECL Income Statement.Net Sales% ChangeCost of Goods SoldGross ProfitGross Margin% ChangeSelling, General & Admin.SG&A/Sales% ChangeOperating ProfitOperating Margin% ChangeOther IncomeInterest ExpensePretax IncomePretax Margin% ChangeTaxesTax RateEquity in Earnings of JV% ChangeNet IncomeNet Margin% ChangePreferred DividendsNet IncomeNet Margin% ChangeBasic Shares Outstanding% ChangeFully Diluted Shares Outst'ding% ChangeBasic EPS% ChangeFully Diluted EPS% ChangeSource: Jefferies, Company DataPlease see important disclosure information on pages 4 - 9 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Company DescriptionEcolabWith ~25,000 salespeople and market-leading 8% share in a highly fragmented market, Ecolab has turned its core institutional cleaning and sanitizingbusiness into a platform that also encompasses industrial, healthcare, and pest elimination products and services.Company Valuation/RisksEcolabOur $310 price target implies 35.4x 2026E EPS and is based on our DDM model, historical multiples, and regressions on sector valuations andprofitability. Key risks include dilutive M&A and competitive dynamics.Analyst Certification:I, Laurence Alexander, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or viewse