拉美石油 从清算到复苏

Alejandro Anibal Demichelis * | Equity Analyst+34 919498377 | ademichelis@jefferies.comPedro Baptista * | Equity Analyst+44 (0) 207 029 8351 | pbaptista@jefferies.comFrancisco Barbosa ^ | Equity Associate+1 (212) 284-2197 | fbarbosa@jefferies.comSource: FactSet; Jefferies Exhibit 3 - Jefferies Brent oil price assumptions (US$/bbl).2025EBrent (new)65Brent (old)69% change-6%Source: JefferiesExhibit 4 - Jefferies Global Oil Supply & Demand (mb/d).Source: Jefferies estimates, Energy Aspects, IEA, EIA, WoodMackenzieExhibit 5 - LatAm oil & gas players - Ratings & EBITDA ests changes summary.CompanyPetrobrasYPFEcopetrolUNPF (unchanged)Vista EnergyPampa EnergiaGeoParkParexHold (unchanged)CanacolHold (unchanged)LatAm Oils 2025-27 Avg ChangeSource: JefferiesExhibit 6 - Canacol - TP bridge (C$/share).5.50-1.002.003.004.005.006.00Previous TPSource: JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 39 - 46 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Latin America energy - Investment case summariesWe continue having a selective view on our Latin America oil & gas coverage. Our top picks remain Buy-rated PBR, Vista & YPF; we see as value playsGPRK and Pampa (both Buy rated). We rate EC as Underperform on valuation grounds, and keep our Hold ratings on Parex and Canacol.BuysPetrobras | Cost Cutting Push Improves Risk/RewardPBR management's aim to cut costs to weather lower oil prices and basedividend commitment positively skews the risk/reward for the stock, in ourview. In addition, we believe that the market underappreciates PBR’s highmargin pre-salt assets and the ramp up of new platforms should offer someupside to PBR’s FY25 output growth target of 5%. With the shares down28% LTM, lagging peers, and trading at c25% discount to global peers, wesee scope for PBR to re-rate as its CF generation becomes more apparent.Vista Energy | Plenty in the tankVista's recent inorganic expansion in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale oilenhances its portfolio and opens up material growth opportunities andsynergies, in our view. To us the market underestimates Vista's growthpotential, and scope to increase efficiencies across its portfolio. Wecontinue to see Vista as a differentiated story in LatAm’s energy spaceas it combines solid execution, strong volume growth and increasing CFgeneration at an attractive valuation.Pampa | Full steam ahead on Vaca Muerta oil & gas exportsPampa is levered to Argentina’s power generation sector recovery andto growth in Vaca Muerta oil & gas volumes, particularly through LNGexports. We expect its generation business to flatten but see Argentina’simproving wholesale power prices and Pampa’s divisional earnings. Inaddition, Pampa’s Rincon de Aranda (RdA) shale oil field has broughtmaterial growth opportunities into its upstream business.HoldsParex | Value emerging but limited catalysts near termParex’s main asset is its 55% stake in Colombia's LL34 block, which itshares with GPRK. This gives it solid production/CF and we also like Parex’snet cash position, and sizeable exploration plan. With the stock down 46%LTM, materially lagging peers, arguably considerable value is emerging atParex. That said, we see limited catalysts near term to help Parex close thevaluation gap as its main exploration push (the high impact Farallones wellin Colombia's foothills area is due to be drilled in 2026. We also see Parexas a potential consolidator of Colombian E&P players.UnderperformsEcopetrol | Limited growth options but flexibility to lower capexWe continue to see EC featuring weaker fundamentals than peers. Its upstream business offerslimited growth (except for the US Permian and Brazil's offshore push) and its power transmissionsubsidiary ISA continues to put pressure on EC's balance sheet. While we acknowledge that apotential change in government at Colombia's 2026 presidential elections could be positive for EC(as well as for other Colombian oil & gas players), we see this already reflected in the valuation ofthe stock, negatively skewing the risk/reward.Please see important disclosure information on pages 39 - 46 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. YPF | Sticking to the GunsYPF’s CMD highlighted the deep transformation of the firm, and therich growth opportunity set it enjoys. We see Vaca Muerta shale oildevelopment continuing at pace despite recent market volatility but YPF'sLNG projects will only advance if project financing is available. This shouldallow YPF to maintain shale oil volume growth out to 2030 in a US$60/bbloil world while keeping the balance sheet in check. In addition, Argentina’sclearer macro situation should help the stock regain ground.GPRK | Value play on LatAm energyGPRK is down 26% YTD due to the failed deal in Argentina. This leavesGPRK with limited growth options and puts pressure on the incomingCEO to move swiftly on the inorganic front. That sai