沃达丰业绩、法国并购、Sunrise、星链
Restricted - External Emerging Markets TelecomsNEUTRALLatin America Telecom & MediaNEUTRALEuropean Telecom ServicesNEUTRALEuropean Telecom ServicesMathieu Robilliard+44 (0)20 3134 3288mathieu.robilliard@barclays.comBBI, ParisMaurice Patrick+44 (0)20 3134 3622maurice.patrick@barclays.comBarclays, UKGanesha Nagesha+91 (0)22 6175 1712ganesha.nagesha@barclays.comBarclays, UKMaxime Delaugerre+44 (0)20 3555 5672maxime.delaugerre@barclays.comBarclays, UK consolidation, if it were to come with light remedies, could create between €4.5-12.3bn of NPVfrom opex synergies and an additional potential €2.1-10.3bn of NPV from market repair for theindustry. The report in Le Figaro indicated that SFR could be valued at €25 billion. Bouygues,Orange and Iliad could be potential acquirers; when we look at the variables for each name, themost likely scenario would seem to be a split of Altice between Bouygues and Iliad, notably dueto market share constraints but also due to potential balance sheet constraints. Orange could intheory also participate, but we would only expect this as a possibility if Orange were able tofacilitate the deal from a regulator and/or financial perspective, i.e. as a minor partner. We nowsee the likelihood of a deal as elevated but we believe any such deal would likely be complexand take a long time to execute, hence we would expect any potential benefits to accrue onlyfrom 2027 onwards. A key risk is the unstable French political environment. While formally adeal would be reviewed by the EC anti-trust body, we believe political buy-in from Frenchauthorities is important. Regarding the EC, as we discussed in European Telecom Services: 2025Outlook - Regime change - 18 November 2024, the regulatory/anti-trust environment has in ourview become more supportive of in-market consolidation without remedies.Sunrise - Re-iterates 2025 guidance, with revenues below, EBITDAaL aheadSunrise continues to see weakness in revenues, with ARPU still firmly negative, although Adj.EBITDAaL was ahead with lower churn helping. FCF was weak on higher capex and other items.We remain UW, PT CHF36. We update our estimates to reflect 1Q25 results and commentary.Our revenue estimates decrease by -0.7%/-0.8% in FY25E/FY26E and our adjusted EBITDAestimates decrease by -0.5%/-0.6% in FY25E/FY26E, respectively. We maintain our DCF-basedprice target at CHF36. We see Sunrise trading on 7.6x EV/EBITDA, 14.2x EV/OpFCF, a 6.1%unlevered FCF yield and a 12.7% equity FCF yield for FY25E. This adjusts for share-basedcompensation, tax and spectrum. We note that peers trade on 7.7x, 12.7x, 6% and 7.4%,respectively. The key issues for Sunrise, in our view, will be navigating a challenging Swisscompetitive environment, cable-to-fibre dynamics and leverage, which we see as too high. Weremain Underweight.Barclays Global Telecoms Valuation SheetEU Incumbents trade on FY25 EV/EBITDA, EV/OpFCF and EFCF yield of 7x/12.9x/6.9%, vs. EUChallengers on 7.7x/11.5x/7.4% and US Telcos trade on 8.8x/13.6x/9.6% respectively. Looking at(Bloomberg) consensus recommendations, in Europe the most preferred Incumbent is DTE andthe least is Telia. For challengers the most preferred is Zegona. Please email if you’d like a copy.Altice France (Non-covered) - Considers SFR sale amid interestAltice France (Non-covered) is contemplating the sale of a controlling stake in SFR, potentiallyvaluing the carrier at up to €30 billion, including debt. This is higher than the €25 billion thathad been mentioned Prospective buyers include Bouygues, Iliad, Orange, Middle Easterncarriers, and private equity firms. The sale is contingent on the completion of Altice France'sdebt restructuring, with discussions still in early stages and no guarantee of a deal. Thecompany has been distributing information to potential buyers, and some may consider partialacquisitions or partnerships. Regulatory scrutiny is expected for any local player combination,with concerns over market consolidation and consumer prices. See our research EuropeanTelecoms: French consolidation: Third time lucky? (20 May 2025) where we deep dive on thistopic. Source: Bloomberg (19 May 2025).UK fibre war - FullFibre Cuts Jobs Post Zzoomm MergerAlternative UK broadband operator, FullFibre, has in the past few weeks begun to notifystaffoffurther redundancies. Most of the cuts appear to be coming from their internal fibre build andsupporting teams. The network currently reaches 600k premises (ready for service) and over 70kcustomers (up from 65k+ in January 2025). In early March 2025 the operator had completed its2 merger with Zzoomm, and the newly combined group seems likely to focus more of itseffortsupon commercialisation of their existing network. Source: ISPReview (19 May 2025)Spain – Starlink: Competitive broadbandofferon the low endIn Spain Starlink has introduce a satellite broadband roamingtariffsthatoffers10GB data for €9per month. In case the entire bonus is consumed, customers can add 1 GB additionally for €2 or,o
