Credicorp（BAP US）：买入评级，增长前景更为乐观

Issuer of report:HSBCSecurities (USA) Inc.View HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comListen to our insightsFind out moreHSBC Global Research PodcastsMAINTAIN BUYTARGET PRICE(USD)PREVIOUS TARGET(USD)225.00210.00SHARE PRICE(USD)UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE193.50+16.3%(as of19 May 2025)MARKET DATAMarket cap(USDm)18,263Free floatMarket cap (USDm)18,263BBG3m ADTV (USDm)107RICFINANCIALS AND RATIOS(USD)Year to12/2024a12/2025eHSBC EPS19.5821.92HSBC EPS (prev)19.5821.27Change (%)0.03.1Consensus EPS71.3879.92PE (x)9.98.8Dividend yield (%)6.47.0P/NAV1.81.7ROE inc. gwill (%)17.218.052-WEEK PRICE(USD)Source:LGESIBES, HSBC estimatesCarlos Gomez-Lopez, CFAHead of EM andLatAm FinancialsHSBC Securities (USA) Inc.carlos.gomezlopez@us.hsbc.com+1 212 525 5253Neha Agarwala, CFAAnalyst, LatAm Financials & FintechHSBC Securities (USA) Inc.neha.agarwala@us.hsbc.com+1 212 525 5418EquitiesCommercial BanksPeru05/2411/24Target price: 225.00High: 208.52 Low: 155.97 Current: 193.50 ◆◆◆ 85%BAP USBAP.N12/2026e12/2027e23.5025.8522.5624.724.14.688.3894.848.27.56.76.31.51.417.818.0140.00190.00240.0005/25 2Financial statementsYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026eP&L summary(USDm)Net Interest Income3,8103,9794,135Non-interest Income2,0522,1512,356Fees & commissions1,1941,3391,486Trading result98123Other income760689Total revenues5,8636,1306,492Operating expense(2,731)(2,871)(3,057)PPOP3,1323,2593,434Provisions(950)(827)(829)Operating profit2,1822,4322,605Non-operating income--Profit-before tax2,1822,4322,605Taxation(594)(657)(703)PAT1,5881,7751,902Minorities + pref dividend(33)(34)Attributable profit1,4851,7861,867HSBC attributable profit1,5551,7411,867Balance sheet summaryTotal assets69,24374,26982,032Gross loans39,38742,53847,643Cash & securities27,70429,64332,459Intangibles889889Total Liabilities59,78964,02170,944Deposits43,74147,89752,207Shareholders’equity9,28310,06710,897Minority interest170181Capital (%)Core capital13.1%12.7%12.2%Tier I13.1%12.7%12.2%Totalcapital ratio18.7%16.9%16.1%Payout ratio67%60%55%ROAA deconstruction, growth & per share analysisYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026ePer share data (USD)EPS reported (fully diluted)18.7022.4923.50HSBC EPS (fully diluted)19.5821.9223.50DPS12.513.512.9Book value116.9126.7137.2Tangible book value105.7115.5126.0Shares outstanding-eop (in m)7979Y-on-y % changeLoan0.88.012.0Deposit9.89.5RWA5.68.511.1Assets7.57.310.5Total revenues10.44.6Operating expense9.15.1PPOP11.64.1Provisions(2.2)(12.9)Attributable profit13.820.3HSBC EPS (recurring)19.412.0ROAA deconstruction (%)Net interest income5.705.545.29Non-interest Income3.073.003.02Total revenues8.778.548.31Operating expenses(4.09)(4.00)(3.91)PPOP4.694.544.39Provisions(1.42)(1.15)(1.06)Operating profit3.273.393.33PBT3.273.393.33Taxation(0.89)(0.92)(0.90)Attributable profit2.222.492.39Financials & valuation: Credicorp Credicorp in chartsLoan and deposit growth (%)Source: Company dataMargins, yields, and rates (%)Source: Company dataProfitability indicators (%)Source: Company data(10)01020301Q213Q21 1Q22 3Q22 1Q23 3Q23 1Q24 3Q24 1Q25Loan growth, y/y02468101Q211Q221Q23NIMCost of funds(5)051015201Q213Q21 1Q22 3Q22 1Q23 3Q23 1Q24 3Q24 1Q25Recurr ROAENon-recurring Source: Company dataNon-interest inc andopex as % revenuesSource: Company dataCapital ratios (%)Source: Company data01020304050601Q213Q21 1Q22 3Q22 1Q23 3Q23 1Q24 3Q24 1Q25Non-interest income / revenues051015201Q213Q21 1Q22 3Q22 1Q23 3Q23 1Q24 3Q24 1Q25Tier I Valuation and risksValuationCurrent price:Target price:We derive Credicorp’s fair value target price using a blended valuationapproach of dividend discount model (DDM, 50%, USD249.7, previouslyUSD234.2), economic profit model (EPM, 30%,USD174.2,previouslyUSD163.0), and implied PE (20%,USD239.6,previouslyUSD219.6).We calculate an implied PE of10.3xbased on the formula(ROE-g)/ROE*(kg),where 2025e ROE is18.5%(previously 17.5%).Our cost of equity of 12.7% is derived using arisk-free rate assumption of3.75%, inflation differential with the US of 0.75%, beta of 1.1.Weuse along-term growth rateof6.74% and equity risk premium of6.50% + additional riskpremium of 0.75% to account forpolitical risk.Credicorp scored well when weassessed the strength of its Board, thus wecontinue to lower its COE by 25bp(all unchanged).With higher earnings in the short term andabetter macro-economicbackdropfor Peru, our target priceincreases to USD225.00(previouslyUSD210.00),calculatedusing our FX team’s 2025e USD-PEN exchange rate forecast of 3.70which implies16.3% upside. Weretainour Buy rating on the strength of itsdomestic franchise (40% of retail deposits), its long history of capital discipline,stability of management and attractive valuation.Wethink Credicorp has astrong long-term growth story of improved financial intermediation in Peru with adominant market share.CarlosGomez-Lopez| carlos.gomezlopez@us.hsbc.com | +1 212 525 5253 1Q25earnings and conference highlights(all management comments)◆Guidance 2025:Management reaffirmed confidence in delivering ROE abov