派拓网络（PANW）：未达预期，但仍是首选整合者

2024A2025E2026E8,027.59,184.310,462.02.833.233.662.833.283.668,027.59,172.210,527.3 Joseph Gallo * | Equity Analyst(212) 336-7402 | jgallo@jefferies.comBrent Thill * | Equity Analyst(415) 229-1559 | bthill@jefferies.comAnnick Baumann * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8068 | abaumann@jefferies.comAnjali Papadopoulos * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8590 | apapadopoulos@jefferies.comSource: Jefferies, Company data, Factset, Note: F4Q25 RPOshows guide and cRPO shows consensus, F1Q25 incl $68Mof QRadar implies 17% yoy organic RPO bookings growth The Long View: Palo Alto NetworksInvestment Thesis / Where We Differ•Palo Alto Networks’ (PANW) platform approach across traditional networksecurity,cloud security,SIEM/SOAR,and endpoint meets customerdemands for consolidated security solutions.Base Case,$225, +16%•Non-GAAP operating margins continue toimprove albeit modestly.•Continues to take share and posts double-digitrev growth.•Price target $225; target multiple: 16x EV/CY25revenue.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issues: (1)Data Security.Cybersecurity companies play a crucial role both in takingresponsibility for maintaining data security and in ensuring customers have access to the products andservices required to achieve data security. We expect to see continued focus on data security with a threatlandscape that continues to grow.(2)Employee, Engagement, Diversity & Inclusion.We see companyculture as important in a labor market that continues to be defined by a skill shortage. Additionally, giventhe known underrepresentation of women and minority groups in the software industry today, a focuson building a diverse workforce is cardinal.Company Targets: (1)Goal of being carbon-neutral by 2030.(2)Commitment to 100% renewable energyby 2030.Q’s to Mgmt:(1)Are your executives compensated in any part based on ESG goals?(2)How do youensure your suppliers also act in a sustainable manner?(3)What are some of the definitive actions youare taking to diversify your workforce, do you have any DEI initiatives?Software Sector ESG Integration RefreshPlease see important disclosure information on pages 7 - 12 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,$239, +23%•PANW outperforms its revenue guidance due tostrong adoption of platform play•Corporate security spending re-acceleratesmeaningfullyand PANW takes share fromcompetitors•Non-GAAPoperatingconsistently above 30% or expand further•Price target:$239;multiple:17x EV/CY25revenue Downside Scenario,$166, -15%•Markets take longer to 'digest' past securitypurchases than anticipated•Large competitors refocus their securitybusinesses to take share from PANW; newinnovators take share at a rapid pace•Customer adoption of next-gen security billingstakes longer than anticipated•Margins fall due to competitive pressures•Price target:$166;multiple:12x EV/CY25revenueCatalysts•Continued hyper growth in next-gen securitybillingsnear term,driven by cloud securityportfolio and Cortex SIEM/SOAR/EDR offering•Continued product innovation and growth ofnewer solutions•Trend of vendor consolidation from securitybuyers 2 marginsremain F3Q RPO Bookings Growth Stable.RPO of $13.5B was at the bottom end of the $13.5-13.6Bguided range, growing 19% yoy which was a 2pt decl vs the 21% in F2Q. Investor expectations weremodestly higher but we view the performance as solid in a tough macro. RPO bookings grew 12%yoy in-line with F2Q on a 7 pt tougher comp. cRPO bookings grew 13% yoy vs 12% in F2Q on a 3pt tougher comp.F4Q ARR More Achievable.ARR of $5.09B growing 34% yoy beat Street's expectation of 33.5% yoy.F3Q ARR implied new business was up 3% yoy vs down 1% yoy in F2Q on a 5 pt tougher comp.F4Q ARR guide of $5.545 at the midpoint looks achievable as it implies 31% yoy growth and newbusiness up 5% yoy vs F3Qs +3% on an 11 pt easier comp. F4Q ARR will be driven by a large pipelinefor Cortex/Cloud, SASE and XSIAM.Protect AI Acquisition Color.Protect AI is expected to be acquired for $700M in cash andreplacement equity awards. The definitive agreement to acquire Protect AI was announced on April28 and it is expected to close by F1Q26. PANW expects that the Protect AI team will head up itsAI security business once the acquisition closes. We believe this was primarily a tech tuck in withlittle associated rev/ARR. We view AI as a must-win category for PANW, similar to Cloud, whereonly 3 pure plays ultimately won (CRWD, PANW and recently acquired Wiz). See our note on theacquisition here.Macro Dynamics.PANW saw some uncertainty in the market in mid to late April, following thetariff headlines. Despite the volatility management was happy with how it executed in April (mostimportant month, likely 50% of new business). Management deemed the current environment tohave recovered back to business as normal and viewed it as stable from a macro perspective intoF4Q.SASE Healthy.PANW reached approx 6K SASE customers in F3Q, growing 22% y