派拓网络（PANW）：我们与投资者关系部门会面的三个要点

Three Takeaways from OurMeeting with Investor Relations Company Update We met with Hamza Fodderwala and Ryan Fenwick ininvestor relations this morning and had several takeaways onthe impact of platformization deals on ARR and revenue,along with tidbits on XSIAM, the macro landscape, 4Qpipeline, andsoftwarefirewalls. PANWOVERWEIGHTU.S.SoftwarePOSITIVEPrice TargetUSD 210.00Price (27-May-25)USD 187.46Potential Upside/Downside+12.0%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research U.S.Software We hosted a meeting with Hamza Fodderwala, SVP, Investor Relations and Strategic Finance,and Ryan Fenwick, Director, Investor Relations this morning and had three takeaways: (1) someplatformization deals include a period of free or discounted pricing for some solutions whilecustomers wait for contracts with point vendors to expire – it is important to note that the rev-rec from these deals is straight-lined rather than ramped, so revenue growth will not acceleratein FY26 – but, we have a greater appreciation for the long-term tailwind to ARR asplatformization ARR reflects the discounted deal value, which could see a mark-to-market atrenewal; (2) XSIAM is growing quickly and we estimate is now $300M+ in ARR – we feel goodabout the pipeline and future growth opportunity both organically and from QRadarconversions looking forward, particularly as the majority of NNARR growth will likely now comefrom new solutions like XSIAM; (3) we think April was more of an anomaly from a macroperspective as the month of May returns to business as usual, 4Q pipeline sounds healthy, thenature of this 4Q-weighted business and pipeline growth fromSASE/XSIAM/softwarefirewallssupports the implied 4Q RPO bookings guide, and AI could be a tailwind for the virtual firewallmarket where PANW is a leader. Saket Kalia, CFA+1 212 526 8465saket.kalia@barclays.comBCI, US Carly Buecker+1 212 526 8284carly.buecker@barclays.comBCI, US •Rev-rec for platformization deals with discounted periods is straight-lined rather than•ramped, so we don't expect to see an acceleration in revenue from platformization dealsin FY26; however, ARR from those platformization deals reflects the discounted period,so there could additional value unlocked at renewal.An important part of the story is theplatformization strategy, which PANW introduced in FY24 – to reduce the friction in some ofthese big platform deals, PANW provides its fullofferingto a customer but may give thecustomer a free or discounted time period for part of the solution while the customer waitsfor its point solution contract to expire. Initially when it announced this strategy in FY24, thethought was that revenue would ramp upafterthe free or discounted time period, driving anacceleration in revenue growth in FY26 and beyond. However, once PANW started doing moreplatformization deals, the revenue recognition was actually straight-lined, so it didn't see adip in the first year from the free/discounted periods, but it also won't see an acceleration inrevenue in FY26 as a result (a key reason we trimmed our FY26 revenue growth to 13%). Sothe question becomes – how do we see the benefit of this platformization strategy? And we think the answer is in NGS ARR because the ARR PANW is recognizing from these dealsreflects the discounted value from the free/discounted time period, and so those discountscouldroll-offat the time of renewal plus any cross-sell on top of it (which is arguably easier todo with SaaS products). •We estimate XSIAM is $300M+ in ARR, growing over 200% y/y – we believe growth has•been driven mostly by organic growth; we feel good about pipeline both organically &from QRadar conversions.From a product perspective, we think XSIAM will be an importantdriver on the path to $15B in NGS ARR in FY30. As of 2Q25, PANW had over $1B in cumulativeXSIAM bookings, and we estimate XSIAM is a $300M+ ARR business, growing quickly with over200% y/y growth in XSIAM ARR in 3Q. Zooming in, we think both the organic XSIAM businessand the QRadar business are doing well – on the QRadar side, PANW had over $100M inQRadar-related bookings in 2Q25. We believe PANW is seeing steady conversions fromQRadar, and the pipeline sounds healthy in 4Q – we think the opportunity to convert the on-premise QRadar base is a particularly interesting opportunity since PANW could see ~2x ARRuplifton those conversions. While we like the opportunity with QRadar, we believe a lot of thegrowth in XSIAM has been driven by organic momentum as well, and the organic pipeline in4Q sounds similarly healthy. With both the organic strength and QRadar opportunity, we feelgood about XSIAM as a growth driver moving forward in 4Q and beyond – particularly asthese new solutions will now make up the majority of NNARR going forward. •Other tidbits: (1) from a macro perspective, April feels like an anomaly as May returns to•business as usual; (2) implied 4Q RPO bookings guide is based on pipeline growth fromnew products and renewals – not heroic assumptions on