爱奇艺（IQ US）持有：近期前景可能依然具有挑战性

Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited, Singapore BranchView HSBC GlobalResearch at:https://www.research.hsbc.comMAINTAIN HOLDTARGET PRICE(USD)PREVIOUS TARGET(USD)1.651.85SHARE PRICE(USD)UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE1.86-11.3%(as of20 May 2025)MARKET DATAMarket cap(USDm)1,747Free float42%Market cap (USDm)1,747BBGIQ US3m ADTV (USDm)72RICIQ.OQFINANCIALS AND RATIOS(CNY)Year to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026e12/2027eHSBC EPS1.560.431.381.68HSBC EPS (prev)1.561.351.601.87Change (%)0.0-68.3-13.2-9.9Consensus EPS0.771.241.572.05PE(x)8.631.49.7Dividend yield (%)0.00.00.0EV/EBITDA (x)6.017.68.4ROE (%)11.93.19.310.252-WEEK PRICE(USD)Source:LSEGIBES, HSBC estimatesCharlene Liu*Head of Internet and Gaming Research, Asia PacificThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking CorporationLimited, Singapore Branchcharlene.r.liu@hsbc.com.sg+65 6658 0615Christina Chen*, CFAAnalyst, Internet ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedchristina.z.chen@hsbc.com.hk+852 2822 2912Jessie Lu*, CFAAnalyst, Internet and Gaming ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedjessie.x.lu@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6570* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsEquitiesInternet Software & ServicesChina1.103.255.4005/2411/2405/25Target price: 1.65High: 4.95 Low: 1.53 Current: 1.86 ◆◆◆ 8.00.07.7 2Financial statementsYear to12/2024a12/2025eProfit & loss summary(CNYm)Revenue29,22528,828EBITDA1,964756Depreciation & amortisation-153-152Operating profit/EBIT1,811603Net interest-790-626PBT85217HSBC PBT1,600503Taxation-61-74Net profit764-71HSBC net profit1,512415Cash flow summary(CNYm)Cash flow from operations1,964756Capex-173-156Cash flow from investment-128-62Dividends00Change in net debt2,0651,485FCF equity1,791600Balance sheet summary(CNYm)Intangible fixed assets29,27229,008Tangible fixed assets878854Current assets9,52711,888Cash & others3,5306,045Total assets41,78643,858Operatingliabilities18,97019,219Gross debt4,8248,824Net debt1,2942,779Shareholders' funds13,36513,773Invested capital17,17816,486Ratio, growth and per share analysisYear to12/2024a12/2025eY-o-y % changeRevenue-8.3-1.4EBITDA-40.1-61.5Operating profit-39.4-66.7PBT-58.1-98.0HSBC EPS-46.5-72.5Ratios (%)Revenue/IC (x)1.61.7ROIC9.1-11.9ROE11.93.1ROA4.1-7.3EBITDA margin6.72.6Operating profit margin6.22.1EBITDA/net interest (x)2.51.2Net debt/equity9.720.1Netdebt/EBITDA (x)0.73.7CF from operations/net debt151.827.2Per share data(CNY)EPS Rep (diluted)0.79-0.07HSBC EPS (diluted)1.560.43DPS0.000.00Book value13.7814.22Financials &valuation:iQiyi Source: HSBCNote:Priced at close of 20 May 2025 1Q2025results snapshotTotal revenuedecreased 9% y-o-y to RMB7.2bn, but still cameinahead of our estimate/consensus by 1%/2%.◆Membership revenuedropped8% y-o-y to RMB4.4bn;the results missed our estimate by1%, but was largely in line with the consensus forecast.◆Online marketing revenuedecreased10% y-o-y to RMB1.3bn, beatingour estimates andconsensus by 1%. Both brand adsand performance adsdeclined y-o-y in 1Q.◆Content distribution revenuedeclined32% y-o-y to RMB629m(missingourestimates by3% but beatingconsensusby1%), primarily due to the drop in content distribution revenuerelated to drama series and, to a lesser extent, the drop in revenue from distribution oftheatrical movies invested by iQiyi.◆Other revenueincreased by16% y-o-y to RMB831m, beatingour and consensusestimates by16% and 14%, respectively.This is likely thanks to stronger-than-expectedperformance of a new game iQiyi launched in 4Q2024. Grossmarginwas 24.8%, 0.5ppt lower than our estimate but 0.3ppt higher than consensus.Content costwas RMB3.8bn (largely in line with our numbers), down 7% y-o-y. Content costas a percentage of revenue was 52.8%, up 1.4ppt y-o-y on operating deleveraging.Operating expense asa percentageof revenuewas 0.6% lower than our estimate but 0.1%higher than consensus. Specifically,R&Dasa percentageof revenuewas1.2ppt/1.6ppt lowerthan our estimate/consensus,butwaspartly/largely offset bySG&Aasa percentageofrevenue, whichwas0.5ppt/0.7ppt higher than our estimate/consensus.Non-GAAP operating profitdropped 58% y-o-y to RMB459m (beating our and consensusestimates by 2% and 1%, respectively), indicating a non-GAAP operating profit margin of 6%(-7.3ppt y-o-y, largely in line with our and consensus estimates).Non-GAAP net profit to shareholdersdropped 64% to RMB304m (beating our and consensusestimates by 3% and 6%, respectively), indicating a non-GAAP operating profit margin of 4%(-6.41ppt y-o-y, 0.1ppt/0.2ppt higher than our estimate/consensus).Operating cash flowremained positive at RMB339m (vs RMB459m for non-GAAP operatingprofit);free cash outflowalso remained positive at RMB308m.Net debtwas RMB8.8bn as of1Q2025, down from RMB9.4bn as of end-4Q2024.13: iQiyi–1Q2025actual vs HSBCestimatesand consensusActualHSBCest+/-%Consensus+/-%RMBm1Q251Q251Q251Q251Q25Total revenue7,1867,1041%7,079y-o-y-9%-10%7%1. Membership serv