韩国电力公社（015760 KS）：全球核能扩张的受益者

Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBankingCorporation Limited, Seoul SecuritiesBranchView HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comListen to our insightsFind out moreHSBC Global Research PodcastsMAINTAIN BUYTARGET PRICE(KRW)PREVIOUS TARGET(KRW)40,00031,000SHARE PRICE(KRW)UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE29,700+34.7%(as of22 May 2025)MARKET DATAMarket cap(KRWb)19,066Free float49%Market cap (USDm)13,868BBG015760 KS3m ADTV (USDm)34RIC015760.KSFINANCIALS AND RATIOS(KRW)Year to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026e12/2027eHSBC EPS5439.0912065.1913810.4615319.96HSBC EPS (prev)5439.0912065.1913810.4615319.96Change (%)0.00.00.0Consensus EPS5843.4711569.6613066.1913931.18PE (x)5.52.52.2Dividend yield (%)0.72.93.7EV/EBITDA (x)5.94.13.4ROE (%)9.217.717.016.052-WEEK PRICE(KRW)Source:LSEGIBES, HSBC estimatesYushin Park*Analyst, Korea Industrials & UtilitiesThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking CorporationLimited, Seoul Securities Branchyushin.park@kr.hsbc.com+82 2 3706 8756* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsEquitiesIndependent PowerProducers & Energy TradersKorea15000.0029000.0043000.0005/2411/2405/25Target price: 40000.00High: 29300.00 Low: 18400.00 Current: 29700.00 ◆◆◆ 0.01.94.72.9 2Financial statementsYear to12/2024a12/2025eProfit & loss summary(KRWb)Revenue93,39996,113EBITDA22,36228,784Depreciation & amortisation-13,997-14,210Operatingprofit/EBIT8,36514,573Net interest-4,198-3,937PBT5,25711,538HSBC PBT5,25711,538Taxation-1,635-3,461Net profit3,4927,745HSBC net profit3,4927,745Cash flow summary(KRWb)Cash flow from operations15,87631,809Capex-14,216-15,630Cash flow from investment-14,093-16,796Dividends-137-550Change in net debt-147-14,934FCF equity1,66016,179Balance sheet summary(KRWb)Intangible fixed assets1,1461,111Tangible fixed assets182,983184,574Current assets27,77829,799Cash & others4,4897,891Total assets245,330247,281Operating liabilities37,67939,497Gross debt132,533121,001Net debt128,044113,110Shareholders' funds39,91547,661Invested capital169,739168,095Ratio, growth and per share analysisYear to12/2024a12/2025eY-o-y % changeRevenue5.92.9EBITDA163.428.7Operating profit74.2PBT119.5HSBC EPS121.8Ratios (%)Revenue/IC (x)0.60.6ROIC3.46.0ROE9.217.7ROA1.43.1EBITDA margin23.929.9Operating profit margin9.015.2EBITDA/net interest (x)5.37.3Net debt/equity309.6228.8Net debt/EBITDA (x)5.73.9CF from operations/net debt12.428.1Per share data(KRW)EPS Rep (diluted)5439.0912065.19HSBC EPS (diluted)5439.0912065.19DPS213.00856.72Book value60391.4572510.64Financials & valuation:Kepco Source: HSBCNote:Priced at close of 22 May 2025 Nuclear projects in the upcoming yearsExhibit1:Upcoming nuclear power plant projects202620272028SaudiSloveniaKoreaSweden preferred bidderKazakhstanSouth AfricaFinlandUAETurkeyCanadaRomania Cernavoda 3&4USExhibit2:Nuclear power plant market sizeoutlookExhibit3:Nuclear power plant generationmix outlookSource:Company data, IAEA, WNA, BloombergSource:Company data, OECD NEA/IAEAExhibit4:Korea’s nuclear generationcapacity forecastsExhibit5:Korea’s nuclear generation andmix forecastsSource:MOLITSource:MOLIT01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,000203520402050Nuclear market size(USDbn)050010002020Existing NPPCapaicty (GWe)051015202530354020232025e2030e2035e2038e11th Plan - nuclear generation capacity(GW)050100150200250300(TWh) KEPCO’s electricity salesASP remainsabove its powerpurchase ASP, pointing tonormalisationRising nuclear utilisation alsopoints to favourable coststructure Source: Company data, HSBC estimates Source: Company data, KITAExhibit18:KEPCO–PB trendSource:Quantiwise, HSBC0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.70201120122013(PB,x) Risks to our viewDownside risks:1) lowering electricity tariffs resultingin delayed balance sheet normalization; 2) KRWweakness resulting in higher fuel import costs; 3) asharp increase in commodity prices; and 4) highermaintenance of nuclear plants resulting in lowerutilisation. ValuationWe continue to value theshares usingatarget PB-basedapproach. We now apply our new target PB multiple of 0.5x (from0.4x) to our 12-month forward BVPS of KRW79,442 (unchanged).Our new target multiple is derived by using the average multipleduring 2014-2016 when KEPCO’s earnings improved significantlydue tofalling commodity prices. We think KEPCO deserves totrade at 0.5x aswe believethe company’s earnings will surpassthe previous record-high level. Our TP implies c35% upside andwe maintain our Buy rating. We continue to like KEPCO as wethink the strong earnings and balance sheet improvement shouldenable valuation normalization as it is currently trading atwhat weconsider to beattractive 2025e PB and PEmultiplesof 0.4x and2.4x, respectively. 7 8Disclosure appendixAnalyst CertificationThe following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report,including any analyst(s)whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as