全球人寿保险集团（AGN）：买入外汇负面影响，但资本回报仍具吸引力

Issuer of report:HSBC Bank plcView HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comHSBC Global Research Podcasts| Listen to our insightsMAINTAIN BUYTARGET PRICE(EUR)7.50SHARE PRICE(EUR)6.25(as of20 May 2025)MARKET DATAMarket cap(EURm)Market cap (USDm)3m ADTV (USDm)FINANCIALS AND RATIOS(EUR)Year to12/2024aIFRS EPSIFRS EPS (prev)Change (%)Consensus EPSPE(x)Dividend yield (%)Special yield* (%)Note: * Share buyback52-WEEK PRICE(EUR)Source:LSEGIBES, HSBC estimatesSteven Haywood*Analyst, European InsuranceHSBC Bank plcsteven.haywood@hsbcib.com+44 20 7991 3184Kailesh Mistry*, CFAGlobal Head, Insurance & Digital Finance ResearchHSBC Bank plckailesh.mistry@hsbc.com+44 20 7991 6756Faizan Lakhani*Analyst, InsuranceHSBC Bank plcfaizan.lakhani@hsbc.com+44 20 3229 6443* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsEquitiesInsuranceNetherlands05/24Target price: 7.50 ◆◆◆ PREVIOUS TARGET(EUR)7.90UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE+20.0%10,333Free float11,659BBG51RIC12/2025e0.370.370.00.3916.85.68.311/24High: 6.48 Low: 5.00 Current: 6.25 Find out more86%AGN NAAEGN.AS12/2026e12/2027e0.690.810.910.730.880.99-4.9-8.0-8.00.780.880.979.07.76.96.46.77.03.55.72.24.606.257.9005/25 -2Aegon: Financials & valuationP&L summary(EURm)Year to Dec20242025eAmericas1,0621,223United Kingdom198210International183193Asset Management201188Holding and other activities(159)(190)Underlying earnings before tax1,4851,625y/y change-1%9%Fair value items(208)(46)Realized gains/(losses) oninvestments(36)Impairment charges(236)(97)Other income/(charges)(245)(29)Income before tax7601,452Income tax(85)(303)Non-controlling interests12Net income6881,165Coupons on perpetual instruments(77)(80)Net income attributable to shareholders6111,085Tangible net asset value–TNAV(EURm)Year to Dec20242025eShareholders' equity7,2156,993Remove goodwill and intangibles(616)(616)Tangible net asset value (TNAV)6,5996,377CSM, net of tax6,9756,335Comprehensive SHs' equity (HSBC)14,19013,328Comprehensive TNAV (HSBC)13,57412,712Capital, cash, solvency and debt (EURm)Year to Dec20242025eAmericas750780United Kingdom194175International170108Asset management132125Operating capitalgeneration (OCG)1,2451,188y/y change-3%-5%Holding expenses & other(293)(390)Dividends from ASR217238Net OCG1,1701,036DPS payout ratio on net OCG46%59%Grossremittances to holding1,0531,069Holding expenses(295)(308)Dividend cost(507)(583)Other holding cash movements(913)(450)Holding excess cash position1,7251,453DPS payout ratio on net remittances71%81%Group Solvency II ratio188%186%Debt leverage ratio (Aegon definition)26.5%27.7%Underlying earnings metricsYear to Dec2025e2026ePre-taxunderlying earnings marginsAmericas0.32%0.34%United Kingdom0.08%0.08%International3.01%2.91%Asset Management0.08%0.08%Total0.18%0.19%Average investments (EURbn)887.8890.5 Note:Priced at close of20 May 2025 Reasonable share price performanceAegon’srecentshare priceperformancehas been reasonable, but not as strong as its Dutchpeers and thesector, which we believe is probably due to Aegon’s substantial exposure to theUS: about 65% of group operating earnings and OCG,and 50% of remittances to the holdingcompany. Since the start of 2025, Aegon’s share price is up 9% (and up 19% since the start of2024),whichcompares to the sector +18% (and +40%), ASR +27% (and +36%), and NN +31%(and +54%).Exhibit 1: Aegon’s share price (re-based to100) compared to Dutch peers and indexes90100110120130140150160Jan-24Mar-24May-24Jul-24Sep-24ASRAegonNNSource: LSEGDatastream. Note: ASR (ASRNL NA, EUR57.92, rated Buy) and NN (NN NA, EUR55.00, rated Buy).Cumulative>30% total capital return yield over 3 yearsAegonhas been returning significant amounts of additional capital to shareholders since 2023,and we expect this to continue for the medium term. Itscurrentshare buybackofEUR150misdueto finish by 30 June 2025(according to Aegon),a further share buyback of EUR200m wasannounced at its recent Q1 2025 results, to run over H2 2025. We then forecastfurther sharebuybacksof EUR250m for H1 2026 and EUR300m for H2 2026,so thatAegon meetsits targetfor EUR1.0bn holding cash at end-2026. Thereafter, we forecast share buybacks of EUR200mpa in 2027e and beyond.There is somepotential upside to our forecasts because of Aegon’sExhibit 2: We see attractive capital returnsto shareholders from Aegon (EUR)…Exhibit 3: …with>30% cumulative capitalreturn yield over 3 years (2025e-27e)0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.82025e2026e2027e2028e2029eDividend per shareShare buyback per share0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%Source:Company historical data, HSBC estimates.Source:Company historical data, HSBC estimates. 3Nov-24Jan-25Mar-25May-25FTSEurofirst 300 InsuranceAEX6.4%6.7%7.0%7.4%7.7%3.5%5.7%2.2%2.2%2.3%9.9%12.4%9.2%9.6%10.0%2025e2026e2027e2028e2029eDividend yieldShare buyback yield Price movessince start 2025:+9% Aegon+27% ASR+31% NN+18% FTSEurofirst 300Insurance+6% AEX cash capital position and its additional EUR3.7bn shareholdingin ASR(