aster dm医疗保健（ASTERDM IN）：买入评级，目标价上调至615卢比

Issuer of report:HSBC Securities and CapitalMarkets (India) Private LimitedView HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comMAINTAIN BUYTARGET PRICE(INR)PREVIOUS TARGET(INR)615.00580.00SHARE PRICE(INR)UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE551.35+11.5%(as of21 May 2025)MARKET DATAMarket cap(INRm)274,685Free floatMarket cap (USDm)3,211BBG3m ADTV (USDm)7RICFINANCIALS AND RATIOS(INR)Year to03/2025a03/2026e03/2027eHSBC EPS7.149.9713.59HSBC EPS (prev)7.209.8213.34Change (%)-0.81.51.8Consensus EPS6.699.0212.14PE (x)77.255.340.6Dividend yield (%)21.40.00.0EV/EBITDA (x)36.427.721.4ROE (%)8.913.515.952-WEEK PRICE(INR)Source:LSEGIBES, HSBC estimatesDamayanti Kerai*Analyst, India HealthcareHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limiteddamayantikerai@hsbc.co.in+91 88 7933 5196Saikat Majumder*Analyst, Emerging EMEA Healthcare & SaudiConsumerHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limitedsaikat1majumder@hsbc.co.in+91 80 6737 2751Gaurang Sakare*Associate, India HealthcareHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limitedgaurang.sakare@hsbc.co.in+91 77 1883 6255* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsEquitiesHealth Care Providers &ServicesIndia05/2411/2405/25Target price: 615.00High: 589.85 Low: 321.75 Current: 551.35 ◆◆◆ 58%ASTERDMATRD.NS03/2028e17.2532.017.017.1280.00470.00660.00 2Financial statementsYear to03/2025a03/2026e03/2027e03/2028eProfit & loss summary(INRm)Revenue41,38548,65357,20267,267EBITDA7,64510,08213,08916,359Depreciation & amortisation-2,488-3,016-3,489-4,103Operating profit/EBIT5,1577,0659,59912,255Net interest-1,238-1,206-1,166-1,211PBT55,9247,1789,77912,416HSBC PBT55,9247,1789,77912,416Taxation-1,344-1,723-2,347-2,980Net profit54,2804,9796,7898,615HSBC net profit3,5684,9796,7898,615Cash flow summary(INRm)Cash flow from operations6,37910,35013,03513,514Capex-3,460-6,520-9,738-6,928Cash flow frominvestment-3,633-6,520-9,738-6,928Dividends-58,943000Change in net debt-6,333700710-1,868FCF equity2,9193,8303,2986,586Balance sheet summary(INRm)Intangible fixed assets2,9442,9442,9442,944Tangible fixed assets39,18645,82054,71360,844Current assets19,01519,66119,79324,042Cash & others13,80013,90413,78616,605Total assets66,06473,34582,37092,749Operating liabilities7,4468,4689,4699,460Gross debt20,17820,98121,57322,525Netdebt6,3787,0777,7875,919Shareholders' funds34,28139,25946,04854,664Invested capital39,89946,05454,19661,765Ratio, growth and per share analysisYear to03/2025a03/2026e03/2027e03/2028eY-o-y % changeRevenue-70.417.617.617.6EBITDA-56.531.929.825.0Operating profit-33.037.035.927.7PBT1593.1-87.236.227.0HSBC EPS94.039.536.426.9Ratios (%)Revenue/IC (x)0.81.11.11.2ROIC10.012.514.616.1ROE8.913.515.917.1ROA45.49.110.711.8EBITDA margin18.520.722.924.3Operating profit margin12.514.516.818.2EBITDA/net interest (x)6.28.411.213.5Net debt/equity17.516.915.810.1Net debt/EBITDA (x)0.80.70.60.4CF from operations/net debt100.0146.2167.4228.3Per share data(INR)EPS Rep (diluted)108.679.9713.5917.25HSBC EPS (diluted)7.149.9713.5917.25DPS118.000.000.000.00Book value68.6378.6092.19109.43Financials & valuation: Aster DM Healthcare Source: HSBCNote:Priced at close of 21 May 2025 Highlights from 4QFY25 earningscallHospital business◆Hospitals segment revenue(c94% of total revenue) grew 4.3% y-o-y to INR9.7bn. Revenuefell 3.2% q-o-q on lower footfall in the Kerala cluster due to Ramadan and lower revenuefrom international patients (medical value tourism/MVT).◆Keralacluster (51% of hospital revenue) revenue declined 3.7% y-o-y (-4.6% q-o-q).BesidestheRamadan impact, loss of some key clinical talent also led to lower footfall.◆Strong performance intheKarnataka and Maharashtra cluster (37% of hospital revenue)helped to partially offset muted growth in Kerala◆Operating EBITDA margin grew 90bps y-o-y to 21%, but wasdown 123bps sequentiallydue to inferior payor mix and seasonality.◆All clusters sawapick-up in EBITDA margins: +117 bps y-o-y fortheKarnataka andMaharashtra, +330bps y-o-y fortheTelangana and AP cluster,and +43bps y-o-y fortheKerala cluster hospitals (Exhibit 1).◆Over the past 3 years,Asterhascut cost overheads in the hospitals business by 450bps,which has led to EBITDA margin expansion inthelast 2 years.◆In Kerala, Aster has onboarded experienced professionals,including a regional CEO tostrengthen the leadership team. Aster saw attrition in its key leadership positions in FY24.◆Occupancy inQ4FY25wasloweron both y-o-y and q-o-q basisdue to lower occupancy inkey geographies of Kerala,and Karnataka and Maharashtra.◆Despitesubdued growth in Kerala inthepast few quarters, Aster believes it can achievemid-teens revenue growth in medium term.◆TheAndhra and Telangana clusterreportedslower growth due attrition in clinicians atGuntur and Ongole (new hirings were either completedor are underway currently). 3 Bed expansion plans◆Aster isplanning to add c2,100 beds by FY28, expanding bed capacity to c7,300bedsfromc5,200 in FY2