德哈维里（DELHIVER IN）：买入评级，目标价上调至420卢比

Issuer of report:HSBC Securities and CapitalMarkets (India)Private LimitedView HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comListen to our insightsFind out moreHSBC Global Research PodcastsMAINTAIN BUYTARGET PRICE(INR)PREVIOUS TARGET(INR)420.00400.00SHARE PRICE(INR)UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE320.85+30.9%(as of16 May 2025)MARKET DATAMarket cap(INRm)239,385Free floatMarket cap(USDm)2,800BBG3MADTV (USDm)14RICFINANCIALS AND RATIOS(INR)Year to03/2025a03/2026e03/2027eHSBC EPS2.266.8210.69HSBC EPS (prev)1.635.59Change (%)38.622.0Consensus EPS1.934.34PE (x)142.047.0Dividend yield (%)0.00.0EV/EBITDA (x)48.021.4ROE (%)1.85.252-WEEK PRICE(INR)Source:LSEGIBES, HSBC estimatesShrinidhi Karlekar*Analyst, IndustrialsHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limitedshrinidhi.karlekar@hsbc.co.in+91 22 6164 0689Sandesh Shetty*Analyst, Consumer Durables and Logistics ResearchHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limitedsandesh1.shetty@hsbc.co.in+91 89 8338 6423* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsEquitiesAir Freight &LogisticsIndia05/2411/24Target price: 420.00High: 453.75 Low: 240.29 Current: 320.85 ◆◆◆ 100%DELHIVER INDELH.NS03/2028e11.079.977.27.1521.5030.029.00.014.410.67.7210.00350.00490.0005/25 0.07.4 2FinancialstatementsYear to03/2025a03/2026e03/2027eProfit & loss summary(INRm)Revenue89,319102,981119,916EBITDA3,7588,33412,058Depreciation & amortisation-5,349-6,107-6,932Operating profit/EBIT-1,5912,226Net interest3,1432,800PBT1,5715,051HSBC PBT1,6235,051Taxation500Net profit1,6215,051HSBC net profit1,6735,051Cash flow summary(INRm)Cash flow from operations7,66012,12415,125Capex-4,832-5,189-5,439Cash flow from investment-3,080-5,189-5,439Dividends00Change in net debt-187-2,178-4,307FCF equity-5292,178Balance sheet summary(INRm)Intangible fixed assets14,03013,67813,265Tangible fixed assets25,16928,00130,759Current assets21,40426,04233,391Cash & others3,3605,537Total assets120,555127,697137,418Operating liabilities24,70726,79828,604Gross debt397397Net debt-2,963-5,141-9,447Shareholders’funds94,32299,373107,288Invested capital33,36336,21139,793Ratio, growth andper share analysisYear to03/2025a03/2026e03/2027eY-o-y % changeRevenue9.715.3EBITDA196.8121.7Ratios (%)Revenue/IC (x)2.73.0ROIC-5.06.4ROE1.85.2ROA2.55.2EBITDA margin4.28.1Operating profit margin-1.82.2EBITDA/net interest (x)Net debt/equity-3.1-5.2Net debt/EBITDA (x)-0.8-0.6Per share data(INR)EPS Rep (diluted)2.196.8210.69HSBC EPS (diluted)2.266.8210.69DPS0.000.00Book value127.42134.25144.94Source: Company data, HSBCestimatesFinancials & valuation:Delhivery Note:Priced at close of 16 May 2025Source: HSBC Delhivery FY25Q4review1. Delhivery: FY25Q3results summaryIncome statement (INRm)FY24 Q4Total sales20,755Freight, handling andservicing costs-15,187Line haul expenses-7,080Contractual manpower expenses-2,540Vehicle rental expenses-3,910Others-1,657Other costs-3,188Service EBITDA2,380Corporate overheads-2,170Adjusted EBITDA210Share based payment expenses-490Actual lease rent paid750Other non-cash or one-time costsReported EBITDA459D&A-2,004Net finance income/ (costs)922Clean PBT-623Exceptional items-147Share of profit/(loss) of associates (net)TaxesReported PAT-685As a % of salesFreight, handling and servicing costs-73.2%Line haul expenses-34.1%Contractual manpower expenses-12.2%Vehicle rental expenses-18.8%Others-8.0%Other costs15.4%Service EBITDA11.5%Corporate overhead10.5%Adjusted EBITDA1.0%Reported EBITDA2.2%D&A-9.7%Reported PAT margin (%)-3.3%Source:Companydata2. Delhivery:FY25 Q4segmental performanceFY23 Q4FY24 Q1FY24 Q2FY24 Q3FY24 Q411,77012,02012,10014,48012,1703,2803,4703,7303,7904,1701,0901,3101,5001,5301,7401,8802,0601,6401,7302,34057042041039018,59619,29819,41721,94520,75563%62%62%66%18%18%19%17%6%7%8%7%10%11%8%8%3%2%2%2%100%100%100%100%100%1801821812016566677231834334835410.310.110.710.7 Segmentperformance INRmRevenueExpress Parcel businessPTL freight businessFTLSupply chain servicesCross border servicesTotal salesRevenue mixExpress Parcel businessPTL freight businessFTLSupply chain servicesCross border servicesTotal salesVolume and yield dataExpress Parcel shipmentsExpress Parcel yield (INR/ shipment)PTL freight tonnage(‘000 tons)PTL freight yield (INR/kg)Source: Company dataRevenue grew6% y-o-y toINR21.9bn,c4% lower thanconsensus expectationsRevenuegrowth wasled byPTL(+24% y-o-y, 24% ofrevenues)while ExpressParcel (67% of revenues)reportedmutedgrowth of3%y-o-y;TruckLoadandSupplyChain Servicesbusinessesreported revenue declinesof13% and 2%,respectivelyServiceEBITDAmargincameinat +12.2% (+80bp y-o-y)onsharp margin expansion in PTLbusiness (+7pptq-o-q) to10.8%Reported EBITDA came in at+5.4% which was 200bp higherthan consensus expectationsAdjustedEBITDA margincame in at+2.5% vs1.0% inFY24Q4and1.9% in FY25Q3 Earningsestimates summaryWe cut our revenue forecasts by c3%forFY26-27 on slower growth assumptions in expressparcel shipments. We raise ouradju