英国电信集团（BT）：替代网络竞争对收入和关键绩效指标造成影响

RatingOutperformPrice TargetBT/A.LNAdjusted EPSBT/A.LN (GBP)Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.revenue and KPIsWe expect light revenue guidance to be the talking point today with focus on thedeterioration in Openreach’s line losses as it signals increasing competition fromaltnets.A mixed set of 4Q results.Group revenues came in line with the company-compiledconsensus but was lower on EBITDA (-1.1%). The shortfall in EBITDA was due to Openreachwhere yoy growth deteriorated to +1.9% vs +5.1% projected by consensus (whichwas in line with the +5.3% average recorded by Openreach the previous 4 quarters).Sequentially, BT recorded an improvement in YoY revenue growth compared with lastquarter (-1.0% v -3.0% in 3Q25) and a deterioration in EBITDA (flat growth vs +3.7% in3Q25). The main drivers for the improvement in trends in revenues were the Consumer andBusiness segments. The deterioration in EBITDA trends was led by the Business segment.Encouragingly, 2H reported FCF was 13.5% ahead of consensus (+9.4% beat also on“normalised FCF”), thanks (mainly) to lower capex and interest payments.FY26 guidance - Light on revenues.Guidance was in line on EBITDA but light on bothrevenues (-1.2% vs consensus) and FCF (-c.6%). The gap vs consensus on FCF is mostly dueto the acceleration in BT’s fibre rollout (the build target was increased by 20%, which leads toa c.£150m increase in capex), partly compensated by £100m of forward copper sales.Main highlights by segments: 1) Consumer Segment:Broadband line returned togrowth in 4Q (+5k) (which compare to -40k and -21k recorded the previous 2 quarters)with trends in consumer broadband ARPU also improving (+2.5% yoy vs +0.4% in 4Q).2)Openreach:Line losses deteriorated (-243k vs -208k during 3Q) against a marginalimprovement expected by consensus. Importantly, management guided 2H run rate (ie c.450k) to continue through FY26 (implying -900k vs c.-729k expected by consensus). Goodgrowth in ARPU (+6.0%, unchanged vs 3Q) driven by price increases and improving mix(due to migration of copper towards fibre). The rise in ARPU continued to compensate forthe impact of line losses on revenues, but as a result of increasing line losses, Y/Y growthin Openreach revenues reduced to +0.1% (vs +0.8% in 3Q). 3)Business segment.Thesegment continued to record an improvement in revenues trends (-0.4% vs -2.1% in 3Q and-6.8% in 2Q). However, the improvement in revenues was not matched by EBITDA, which fell9.7% yoy (vs +1.5% yoy growth recorded the previous quarter).See the Disclosure Appendix of this report for required disclosures, analyst certifications and otherimportant information. Alternatively, visit our Global Research Disclosure Website.First Published: 22 May 2025 08:20 UTC Completion Date: 22 May 2025 08:20 UTC CAGR--Close DateEDMFYEDiv YieldEV (GBp) (M)PerformanceAbsolute (%)EDM (%)Relative (%)190p180p170p160p150p140p130p05/24 F24AF25EF26E15.9614.1514.67FinancialsF24AF25EF26EReported EPS18.3619.1118.55 INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONSWe reiterate our PT of GBp 185 and our Outperform recommendation.BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLETickerRatingBT/A.LNOGBpEDMO - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedSource: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.EUROPEAN TELECOM SERVICES 21 May2025TTMClosingPriceRel.PriceTargetPerf.169.25185.0021.7%1,437.27 I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURESReferences to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,C. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited andSanford C. Bernstein Japan KKOn April 1, 2024, Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB) completed a transaction that created a new joint venturein which their respective cash equities and research businesses operate in a new business combination. Although their respectiveownership percentages in the joint venture differ between North America and the rest of the world, the creation, production andpublication of research is handled collaboratively on a global basis across the two research brands, “Bernstein” and “Autonomous”.Unless specifically noted otherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG andAB and their respective affiliates.VALUATION METHODOLOGYBT Group PLCWe value BT shares at 185p using a DCF-based SOTP with WACC at 7.6% and growth at 1.2%. We value each division separately,reaching a long-term/2028e EBITDA multiple of around 5.5x and EV/OCF (EBITDA-capex) of 10.8x as high capex at Openreachcomes to an end in 2027e. We also remove net debt and the future value of other charges including spectrum plus our post taxvaluation of BT’s future payments towards the