2025年第一季度海运动力煤供应趋势

PLV Met CoalNon-PLV Met Coal Christopher LaFemina, CFA * | Equity Analyst(212) 336-7304 | clafemina@jefferies.comAlexander Rickard * | Equity Associate(212) 323-7647 | arickard@jefferies.comAlbert Realini, CPA * | Equity Associate(212) 778-8487 | arealini@jefferies.comAustralia has accounted for 54% of seabornemet coal supply in recent years, and an evenhigher portion if we consider only PLV metcoal. According to Woodmac, seaborne metcoal supply from Australia in 1Q25was down9.9% vs 1Q24 and 25.4% vs 2019.Australian Seaborne Met Coal Supply (mt).0510152025303540451Q191Q201Q211Q221Q231Q241Q25Source: Wood Mackenzie, Jefferies***Our key met coal research includesa93-page primer(HERE)and a shortercompetitive analysis of the met coal minersin our coverage (HERE). Please let us know ifyou would like to further discuss the outlookfor the met coal market. Quarterly Seaborne Metallurgical Coal SupplyIn the below database, we track seaborne met coal supply from miners that report volumes ona quarterly basis. If the miner does not disclose quarterly production, we use reported met coalsales volumes instead. Note that some figures include minimal amounts of thermal coal byproductproduction/sales and domestic met coal sales, especially in the case of the US coal miners. For UScoal miners, volumes are adjusted from short ton to metric ton. All the miners in our database havereported 1Q volumes, and the trend for the quarter was down y/y in aggregate.Exhibit 1 - Seaborne Metallurgical Met Coal Supply from Select Companies (millions tonnes).BHP (100% BMA)Blackwater (sold to Whitehaven in April 2024)GoonyellaPeak DownsSarajiDaunia (sold to Whitehaven in April 2024)Caval RidgeBMC (sold to Stanmore in May 2022)Teck (estimated 100%) (sold to Glencore in July 2024)Anglo American (100%)MoranbahGrosvenorAquila (incl. Capcoal/Grasstree)DawsonJelinbah (Sold to Zashvin in Jan 2025)OtherStanmore (100%) (acquired BMC in May 2022)Glencore (100%) (acquired EVR from Teck in July 2024)YancoalCoronadoAlphaCore (formed in 1Q25)PeabodyWarriorWhitehaven (100%) (with Blackwater + Daunia from Apr '24)RamacoBowen Coking CoalTotalQoQ% ChangeYoY% ChangeCompanySource: Company filings, Wood Mackenzie, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Seaborne Metallurgical Coal Supply (mt)1Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q2217.321.115.615.118.517.013.32.83.82.82.43.03.52.64.55.53.63.64.74.93.63.23.22.41.92.82.72.72.52.82.02.22.72.32.01.01.00.80.60.70.90.61.52.31.81.92.12.01.91.92.62.12.52.60.70.06.26.76.36.65.95.56.06.96.88.48.55.45.69.80.70.11.51.20.20.21.70.00.00.00.10.11.01.51.92.22.12.31.10.81.61.21.11.31.30.90.61.53.23.43.43.43.23.03.50.00.00.00.20.00.00.00.40.40.70.60.62.23.23.63.13.43.53.02.73.31.41.31.61.61.11.30.93.83.43.63.23.32.73.22.32.32.82.42.42.62.31.41.61.61.71.41.91.60.91.31.41.51.11.51.62.01.11.01.01.41.51.50.50.60.40.30.40.50.30.10.20.20.20.20.20.20.00.00.00.00.00.00.046.949.946.946.244.645.447.30.2%6.3%(6.0%)(1.6%)(3.3%)1.7%4.2%3.0%4.6%(1.2%)(1.5%)(5.0%)(9.1%)0.8% 4Q221Q232Q2313.913.917.02.32.23.04.04.44.73.02.52.82.52.02.70.91.21.21.31.52.50.00.00.05.16.36.18.56.96.81.70.71.10.91.10.31.51.11.21.11.01.13.33.13.10.00.00.03.03.03.13.73.12.51.41.21.23.23.13.52.32.32.41.91.92.11.81.21.81.41.61.70.30.30.10.20.40.40.00.10.146.845.348.9(1.0%)(3.3%)8.0%1.4%1.5%7.8% Exhibit 2 - Global Seaborne Metallurgical Coal Supply-Demand Model.Seaborne Metallurgical Coal Supply/Demand AnalysisMillion tonnesSeaborne SupplyAustraliaRussiaUnited StatesCanadaOther (including Mozambique)Total Seaborne Metallurgical Coal Exportsy-o-y %Mongolia (landborne into China)Total Seaborne + Mongolia Shipmentsy-o-y %Total Seaborne Metallurgical Coal ExportsOf which PLV% PLVSteel Production by Metallurgical Coal Importing RegionChinaEuropeIndiaJapanSouth KoreaBrazilSoutheast Asia and OtherSeaborne DemandIndiaChina (seaborne)JapanEuropeSouth KoreaBrazilVietnamIndonesiaOtherTotal Seaborne Metallurgical Coal Importsy-o-y %Mongolia (landborne into China)Total Seaborne + Mongolia Importsy-o-y %Seaborne Market balance (notional)Benchmark Price (US$/tonne) (FOB Australia)Source: Wood Mackenzie, ABARE, Bloomberg, Reuters, Company filings, Jefferies' estimatesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 3 - Global Mining and Steel Comparable Valuations, CY2024A-2026E.May 22, 2025CompanyTickerEuropeAnglo AmericanAAL LNAntofagastaANTO LNBHP LtdBHP LNGlencoreGLEN LNRio Tinto PlcRIO LNAmericasAlcoaAA USBHP Ltd (ADR)BHP USFirst QuantumFM CNFreeport-McMoRanFCX USLundin MiningLUN CNRio Tinto Plc (ADR)RIO USTeck ResourcesTECK.B CNVale (ADR)VALE USAsia PacificBHP LtdBHP AUMMG1208 HKRio Tinto LtdRIO AUCoal MinersCore Natural ResourcesCNR USPeabody EnergyBTU USRamaco ResourcesMETC USWarrior Met CoalHCC USSteel ProducersCleveland-Cliffs