曼金德制药2023年第四季度报告：成本上升未达预期，为未来增长奠定基础

2026E2027E146,123164,861184,18119,594.026,874.833,520.247.4965.1451.4x37.4x 2028E81.2530.0x Alok Dalal * | Equity Analyst91 22 4224 6155 | adalal@jefferies.comDhawal Khut * | Equity Associate91 22 42246134 | dkhut@jefferies.com The Long View: Mankind PharmaInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferContinued outperformance versus the Indian Pharmaceutical Market (IPM)in India formulations market, driven by superior execution capabilities.Increasing share of chronic, specialties, and super specialties products toresult in margin accretion.Scaling up of existing brands and new product addition to deliver mid-teensgrowth in the consumer healthcare division.Stability in raw material prices and price hikes to boost near-term margins.Acquisition of BSV Portfolio a medium term catalystBase Case,INR2870, +18%2025-27E Revenue growth at 16%.We value the company at 28x Mar-27E EV/EBITDA with Price Target of INR2,870.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s): Product Quality and Safety.Mankind Pharma, among the largest pharmacompanies in India, is known to launch affordable medicines. However, affordability should not comeat the cost of quality, which is the most important factor in medicines.Company Target(s):Target to become Carbon Neutral by 2030.Qs to Mgmt:1) What steps are you taking to reduce wastewater emissions from your manufacturingplants. 2) What is the plan to increase use of renewable energy in your office and plants?ESG Sector Deep Dive: India PharmaPlease see important disclosure information on pages 8 - 13 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,INR3240, +33%2025-27E Revenue growth at 19%.We value the company at 32x Mar-27E EV/EBITDA with Price Target of INR3,240. Downside Scenario,INR2190, -10%2025-27E Revenue growth at 14%.We value the company at 24x Mar-27E EV/EBITDA with Price Target of INR2,190.CatalystsAbove-industry growth, led by chronic/specialtytherapy areasOperatingleverage from recent field forceadditionPrice increases/softening raw material costs toimprove gross marginsSynergies from BSV acquisition 2 Exhibit 2 - Mankind Pharma: Quarterly Summary.Consolidated P&L (INR mn unless otherwise stated)India formulationsExport formulationsConsumer HealthcareBSVTotal RevenueRaw material costsGross ProfitGross Margin (%)Employee costsOther expensesEbitdaEbitda margins (%)Depreciation & AmortisationInterest & Finance chargesOther incomeExceptional itemPBTTaxesTax rate (%)JV profit/loss shareMinority InterestPATPAT excl exceptional itemsDiluted shares outstandingDiluted EPS (Ex-Exceptional)Diluted EPSSource: Company data, Jefferies estimatesExhibit 3 - India formulations (organic) sales was up 9% YoY in 4QFY25 as perour estimates.202411%10%0510152025304QFY241QFY25India pharma sales (INR bn)Source: Company data, Jefferies estimatesExhibit 5 - Organic exports sales fell to low single digit on high base of last year.2.72.6230%62%0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54QFY241QFY25Exports (INR bn)Source: Company data, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 8 - 13 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Source: Company data, JefferiesExhibit 6 - Total sales was up 26% YoY, boosted on BSV acquisition, organicgrowth was ~9% YoY.24.428.919%0.05.010.015.020.025.030.035.04QFY241QFY25Revenue (INR bn)Source: Company data, Jefferies Exhibit 7 - EBITDA margin fell to 22% due to higher selling expenses and BSVintegration costs.5.96.824%24%0.02.04.06.08.010.04QFY241QFY25EBITDA (INR bn)Source: Company data, JefferiesExhibit 9 - We build in low-teens growth for India consumer healthcare divisionfrom FY26.7.18.12%15%02468101214FY24FY25Consumer Business sales (INR bn)Source: Company data, JefferiesExhibit 11 - EBITDA growth should continue to be robust on margin gains fromFY27.25.430.233%19%0102030405060FY24FY25EBITDA (INR bn)Source: Company data, Jefferies estimatesExhibit 13 - Estimate changes.Estimates RevisionTotal Revenue - oldTotal Revenue - new% Change in RevenueEbitda - oldEbitda - new% Change in EbitdaDiluted EPS - oldDiluted EPS - new% Change in EPSSource: Jefferies estimatesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 8 - 13 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 14 - Mankind one-year forward EV/EBITDA.1520253035Jun-23Jul-23Aug-23Sep-23Oct-23Mankind 1yr fwd EV/EBITDASource: Bloomberg, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 8 - 13 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 15 - Mankind Pharma: Key Metrics.Key Metrics (INRm unless otherwise stated)RevenueEBITDANet ProfitEPSEPS Growth (%)ROE (%)ROCE (%)ROA (%)Net debt/Equity (x)Shares outstanding (mn)DebtCashFCFEPS excl exceptionalBVPSDPSSource: Company data, Jefferies estimatesExhibit 16 - Mankind Pharma: P&L Statement.Conso