唐纳森（DCI）：重新平衡第三季度和第四季度以更好地反映宏观信号

2024A2025E2026E-3,656.03,782.03,920.0-3.613.833,586.03,664.03,845.04,061.019.9x18.7x17.3x 2027E4.1215.7x Laurence Alexander * | Equity Analyst(212) 284-2553 | lalexander@jefferies.comDaniel Rizzo * | Equity Analyst(212) 336-6284 | drizzo@jefferies.comKevin Estok * | Equity Associate(212) 778-8516 | kestok@jefferies.comXianrao Zhu * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8742 | xzhu@jefferies.comCarol Jiang * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 284-1714 | cjiang@jefferies.com The Long View: DonaldsonInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferOur investment thesis for Donaldson hinges on 1) end-market demand inon-road and off-road (customer guidance is a good proxy, i.e., in Ag); 2)class 8 truck orders; 3) progress and visibility in industrial filtration orders;4) offsetting raw material inflation through price initiatives and ongoingproductivity improvement; and 5) continued investments in emerging markets.Base Case,$75, +10%•Demand intact in 2024 and 2025.•Price hikes and productivity offset costincreases.•Only modest M&A:Share repurchases add$0.12 in cumulative EPS through 2025.•FY27E EPS: $4.35; Target Multiple: 17.2x P/E; PT$75.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s): 1/ Air Quality.Donaldson’s competitive advantage stems from more than acentury of know-how around the design and production of air filters for industrial, aerospace, military,chemical, and pharmaceutical applications.2/ Product Design & Lifecycle Management.A fundamentalshift in the company’s IP management strategy, coupled with iterative differentiation of its products,supports share gains and margins in volatile and highly competitive markets.Company Target(s):1/ Where possible, shifting plants to solar power and zero-emission water processes.2/ Donaldson aims to reduce Scope 1 & 2 GHG emissions by 42% by 2030.Qs For Mgmt:1/ How do fuel cells and hybrid EV platforms alter Donaldson’s addressable market andmargin trajectory. 2/ How does Donaldson help customers improve their emission profiles along withenergy efficiency? 3/ How do the company’s core technology platforms support applications in liquidfiltration?ESG Sector Deep Dive: ChemicalsPlease see important disclosure information on pages 6 - 11 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,$110, +61%•Robust demand environment leads to 4% GDPgrowth; volume tracks GDP.•Price/mix outpaces raw materials.•Industrial filtration/gas turbines accelerate.•New products lead to market share gains,especially in emerging markets.•M&A/buybacks add $0.15 to EPS.•Peak EPS: $5.00; Target Multiple: 22x; PT: $110. Downside Scenario,$36, -47%•Recession lowers 4- to 5-year sales CAGR to0-1%.•Competition from EVs erode pricing power.•Productivity cycle winds down.•Liquid filtration initiatives stall.•Trough EPS: $2.40; Target Multiple: 15x PT: $36.Catalysts•End-market indicators:Especially capacityutilization, commodity prices•Maintaining margin growth by offsetting rawmaterial inflation and improving product mix•Trough in gas turbines; increased order flowfrom Aftermarket•Increased penetration in BRIC countries; marketshare gains to drive volumes 2 On-Road:For On-Road, Donaldson expects a sales decline of 11-13% in 2025, which implies adecline of 2%-6% in 2H25. Our model suggests a more severe decline of 28% in Q3 (68% range of-44% to -12%). This model has tended to post the most significant forecast errors when it was tooconservative on demand up-cycles in 2010 and 2018. Our initial estimate of a 10% decline appearsoptimistic: we are trimming slightly and now forecast a decline of 12%. Tariff-related demandadjustments could lead to On-Road disappointing in Q3 and Q4, and in our view represents the mostlikely estimate to the earnings bridge for the full year..Aftermarket:For Aftermarket, Donaldson expects a sales increase of 1-3% in 2025, which implies-2 to -9% in 2H25. Our model supports a strong Q3, with a forecast of 10% (68% interval 5%-16%).OLS model suggests an increase of 10% in Q3 (confidence interval of +5 to +16%) versus our originalestimate of +3%. We increase our forecast for Q3 sales 600bps to +9%. Near-term, headwinds fornew vehicle sales should translate into a benefit for Aftermarket as maintenance projects that weredelayed are addressed..IFS:For IFS, Donaldson expects a sales increase of 1-3% in 2025, implying +5 to +9% in 2H25. Ourmodel supports 3.4% in Q3 (68% range of -3% to +9%). This model tends to do a good job capturingPlease see important disclosure information on pages 6 - 11 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. turning points (in synch or a quarter ahead), with only one notable miss in 4Q16. We are lowering ourforecast for IFS 490bps to +4.0%. Industrial demand appears more at risk in the summer and fall:near-term the company should benefit from share gains and contract wins in power generation..Aerospace & Defense:For Aerospace & Defense, Donal